The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[metirish]

Bob Nightengale reports this came together Wednesday night in Tampa with Boras, Alonso, Cohen and Stearns , Bob described this as the old fashioned way

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, it certainly seems like there wasn't any other team in on him, and the Mets didn't negotiate against themselves. That 7 year offer he turned down was in June 0f '23. You chose poorly, AlonsOMG.

Glad this is done so we and they can get on with bidness. Still need to shore up that bullpen and rotation.

So, Alonso, McNeil, Lindor and Vientos in the infield.
Nimmo, Taylor/Siri, Soto in the outfield.
Marte/Winker DH and part-time OF.
Alvarez C

Baty, Acuna, Mauricio all have options so they can be stashed in Syracuse and used as necessary.
Candelita on the outside looking in but still available.

Not the greatest lineup in baseball but certainly competitive.

[Centerfield]

My speculation based on nothing but my imagination:

*The Mets' offer was for 3 years, around $24M per year ($72M). Alonso/Boras were probably looking for 3 years, $30M per year, with opt outs each year, the Bellinger-type buyouts, and maybe even front-loaded. Without any other offers to compete with, the Mets didn't move, and hence the long standoff.

*After the Cohen rant, I'm guessing Alonso/Boras dropped the buyouts and came back to the table. Then the sticking point was the AAV (24 vs. 30). Instead of meeting in the middle with AAV, Cohen/Stearns finally gave in and said we'll give you $30 AAV, but for one year, and removed one guaranteed year from their deal. They presented both options to Pete. 3 years, 72M, 2 years, $54M. Pete chose the two year deal since his intent all along was to opt out anyway.


Things I have a stronger basis to believe:

*All of the information given to Andy Martino and Jon Heyman come from Boras. They both broke the Soto signing at the same time, they both broke the Pete news at the same time. They both pumped the "Mets have pivoted away from Alonso" BS at the same time. Once Boras went silent, they were completely in the dark. As soon as the deal was done, Boras gave them the info and let them break the news simultaneously.

*the Mets never pivoted away from Alonso.

*Pete was never going to the Blue Jays. And all that 10 yard line crap was Boras propaganda.

[Centerfield]

So if you're mathing. The offer was 7 years, $158M. Since then, he's earned $20.5M in 2024, and will earn $30M in 2025. That leaves 5 years, $107.5M left on that deal ($21.5AAV)

Assuming Alonso opts out after 2025. He will hit the free agent market again at age 31, with no QO. Could he get a 5 year deal at that AAV? Maybe. Likely not. But assuming he puts up decent numbers (not worse than 2024), you have to figure he's offered at least a 3 year for something close to $21.5M AAV. With a good year, I can see 4 years, $25M per.

So while it sucks for him that he won't have the security of a multi-year deal, if he doesn't decline further, I can see him ultimately making more money than the deal he rejected.

[metirish]

Mike Puma reports Cohen flew to Tampa to close the deal, met with Alonso and Boras at a social club , Stearns also present, Alonso aired "his frustration at the situation" , it was made clear to Alonso that he was " wanted by the Mets "

Look this crap better not linger , have a presser , get it over with and STFU about it , Pete better not be fucking sulking

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yeah, he can't show up in St. Lucie with the appearance of someone who's there because he had no other options, even though that's probably true. His attitude needs to be, "I'm glad to be here! This is what I wanted all along!"

[batmagadanleadoff]

Pete Alonso’s short-term deal with Mets showcases the need for a bounce-back 2025 season

Pete Alonso’s miscalculation of the free-agent market is not worthy of condemnation. Yet.

Alonso agreed Wednesday night to a two-year, $54 million guarantee to return to the New York Mets, according to sources briefed on his negotiations. He could end up like three other Scott Boras clients who opted out of short-term deals after one year, then struck belated free-agent riches.

But while Alonso and Boras can point to Carlos Correa, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman as examples of how the strategy can work, Jordan Montgomery did not succeed with the same blueprint. To this point, Cody Bellinger has not, either.

If Alonso fails to rebound from his career-worst 2024 season, his problem if he opts out will be the same one he experienced this winter. His power is elite, but he is a first baseman and largely one-dimensional, offering little defensive or base-running value. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once, so at least Alonso would not again be burdened by draft-pick compensation. But a year from now he will be preparing for his age-31 season, and teams likely will remain hesitant to sign him long-term.

Snell is a top starting pitcher, Correa a difference-making shortstop, Chapman a brilliant defender. Alonso, by approximating the 40-homer, .869 OPS campaign he produced in 2022, would be justified in asking for a six-year deal. First baseman Christian Walker in December landed a three-year, $60 million free-agent contract with the Houston Astros, and he turns 34 on March 28. But when assessing players’ values, clubs are all about trend lines. And Alonso’s aren’t good.

Few would have bet Walker would secure a larger guarantee than Alonso, but Walker has won three straight Gold Gloves and his OPS+ figures the past three seasons were a fairly consistent 25, 22 and 21 percent above league average. Alonso’s OPS+ marks were 46, 23 and 23 percent above.

Alonso is a homegrown star. He hit one of the most memorable home runs in Mets history in the Wild-Card Round against the Milwaukee Brewers. But David Stearns, the Mets’ exceedingly rational general manager, and even Steve Cohen, their more impulsive billionaire owner, refused to be swayed by emotion.

In June 2023, Alonso reportedly turned down a seven-year, $158 million offer under his previous agency, Apex Baseball, and the Mets’ previous GM, Billy Eppler. The offer covered his final year of arbitration, which turned out to be $20.5 million. The six free-agent years would have been worth $137.5 million.

While Alonso’s decision might appear foolish in retrospect, he was, at the time, the major-league leader in home runs the previous five seasons, and by a considerable margin. Perhaps he would not have topped Freddie Freeman’s six-year, $162 million free-agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers, which contains significant deferrals (Alonso’s new agreement with the Mets has none). But Alonso seemed a reasonable bet to get close to Freeman, if not beyond.

Surely that was Alonso’s thinking when he hired Boras after the 2023 season, and Boras’ thinking, too. But Alonso regressed in his platform year, hitting a career-low 34 home runs that still tied him for 12th in the majors. At that point, his likely goal of $200 million became decidedly unrealistic, if it was ever possible at all.

Boras has negotiated three of the five largest free-agent contracts this offseason, including his personal Mona Lisa, Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765 million contract with the Mets. Chapman’s six-year, $151 million extension with the San Francisco Giants ranks as the winter’s sixth-largest deal. But with Alonso, Boras settled for one of his self-described “bridge” contracts. Another of his big free agents, third baseman Alex Bregman, could be headed for the same fate.

Alonso’s agreement with the Mets includes a $10 million signing bonus and $30 million in overall income in 2025, according to sources, just below Miguel Cabrera’s record $31 million average annual value for a first baseman. Alonso also turned down a three-year, $71 million offer from the Mets with two opt-outs, preferring the higher salaries in his two-year deal. Again, it all could work out. But so much will hinge on how Alonso performs.

The free-agent market at first base next offseason could include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who intends to cut off extension talks with the Toronto Blue Jays on Feb. 18, the date of the team’s first full-squad workout. Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is a better pure hitter than Alonso and more than four years younger. Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Josh Naylor, also eligible for free agency, is not as accomplished as Alonso, but 2 1/2 years younger.

The Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and New York Yankees are among the teams that could be in the market for a first baseman, along with the Minnesota Twins, Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Guardians and others. But most of those clubs also were in the market at the position this offseason. And with the exception of the Blue Jays, all appeared to shun Alonso.

Alonso’s return to the Mets seemed inevitable. He clearly did not want to sign with the Jays. But just as Boras got practically everything he desired from the Mets for Soto, the Mets got almost everything they desired with Alonso. True, Alonso’s $30 million salary in 2025 will push the Mets above the highest luxury tax threshold. Factoring in the accompanying penalty, he effectively will cost the team approximately $60 million. But the deal is for a maximum of two years. And the Mets’ lineup will be even more potent with Alonso hitting behind Soto.

Alonso did not lose entirely, ending up with an above-market salary for 2025 and the chance to return to free agency as quickly as possible. To beat the Mets’ initial extension offer next offseason, he would need to sign a five-year contract for more than $107.5 million. Not impossible, especially if he has a big year. But considering the frustration he experienced in his first crack at the open market, not all that likely, either.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/611809 ... act-boras/

[Benjamin Grimm]

Factoring in the accompanying penalty, he effectively will cost the team approximately $60 million.

Wow.

[ashie62]

The whole thing was much a do about nothing. Pete lost a lot of effing money in this process

The 3/54 is almost laughable

[kcmets]

The 3/54 is almost laughable

2 not 3.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Factoring in the accompanying penalty, he effectively will cost the team approximately $60 million.

Wow.

But will it cost the Mets draft position? I could care less about the money. First of all, it's not my money. And second of all, $30M to Steve Cohen is like a slice of pizza to a regular person.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't really care about the money either. If Steve Cohen is willing to spend it, it's perfectly fine by me.

But the Mets often signal that they don't want to spend crazy money, and then take on an expense of $60 million for one year of Pete Alonso. So... wow.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I don't really care about the money either. If Steve Cohen is willing to spend it, it's perfectly fine by me.

But the Mets often signal that they don't want to spend crazy money, and then take on an expense of $60 million for one year of Pete Alonso. So... wow.

I reacted the same way, even though I could care less other than if the money affects draft position. It's just that I was getting the impression that the Mets were micro-managing some financial line that they did not want to cross, presumably to manage the luxury tax penalties.

[AMonkey]

I don't really care about the money either. If Steve Cohen is willing to spend it, it's perfectly fine by me.

But the Mets often signal that they don't want to spend crazy money, and then take on an expense of $60 million for one year of Pete Alonso. So... wow.

They've pretty much already signaled they're basically done, they're not going to suddenly spend another $30 million somewhere, if he stays it's a little less (And other money is coming off). The only time it becomes an issue is if he does revert to the mean and put up 3+ fWAR and you don't want to just let that production walk next offseason. If they were concerned with that, they certainly could've offered more years to Alonso, at a lower rate. I'm sure he would've been more open to deferrals too, if the contract length was longer.

[Lefty Specialist]

The only problem is that the odds are good the Mets and Pete will be in this exact same position next year. If they're not, it's only because he had a crap year and took the option instead of testing the market again. So the conundrum is merely postponed.

[whippoorwill]

I’m really glad about this; he seems like a really good guy and I was disappointed when Boras got his clutches on him.

Ended well I’d say. I really didn’t want him to have to sell cars or beer this summer

[Gwreck]

So the conundrum is merely postponed.

A couple of big differences next offseason, though:

-Mets will clear more money off the books (Marte, in particular, but will also have a tradeable McNeil with only 1 year remaining on his deal).

-Another year will have passed for the Mets to determine if any of their internal options can be reasonably considered to replace Pete’s production. There’s a much greater chance that a Mauricio or Williams or whomever will be ready to contribute at the major league level (something that the Mets decidedly do not have now).

-External replacement options will be a lot more favorable than Christian Walker or Alex Bregman. Vladdy Jr. will be hitting free agency at age 26.

[Cowtipper]

Good to have him back.

[Centerfield]

The only problem is that the odds are good the Mets and Pete will be in this exact same position next year. If they're not, it's only because he had a crap year and took the option instead of testing the market again. So the conundrum is merely postponed.

I was thinking that too. With this short term deal, the conundrum continues. But I think next year will be much different. And I don't see much chance of him coming back.

I think ultimately, if he has a good enough year to get a 4 year deal from someone else, he'll be gone. Stearns won't match it. But even if he's looking at 2-3 year deals again next winter, I think the chances are low. I think one of the Mets' young infielders will stick. Be it Mauricio, Baty, Jett, Acuna or someone else we're not thinking of. And I think Stearns, who values defense, won't want to keep Alonso and Vientos on the corners.

I also think there's a chance that the team will want to move either Nimmo or Soto to 1B. We're probably years away for Soto. But Nimmo is older, has a bad foot, and opening up an OF spot gives you more options in next year's free agency than limiting yourself to 1B.

But ultimately I think the biggest difference is that Pete will be ready to move on. I think this year he thought and hoped the team would eventually lock him down to a long term deal. When he realized that wasn't happening, I think he decided that the only place he'd play short-term is with the Mets. But I'm sure he's realized by now that he's likely not going to be a life-long Met. And that he's got one last chance to cash in.

I'm sure Boras has told him that he shot himself in the foot by professing to everyone who would listen how much he wanted to come back to the Mets. How much that hurt his market. I wonder if we'll see Pete answer questions differently this year.

To borrower a line from his teammate, "every team has the same chance".

[ashie62]

The 3/54 is almost laughable

2 not 3.

Thanks, Pete got hosed imho

[The Hot Corner]

Glad to have Pete back. The way the contract is structured it is basically $30 mil. for 2025, then Pete opts out and reenters the free agent market. The only way I see Pete not opting out is if his production continues to drop. This gives the Mets a year to find out if any of the youngsters are ready to step in (as Vientos did in 2024) and become a major contributor in 2026. If not, I believe Stearns /Cohen are more likely to give a long term deal to Vlad Jr., who is 4 years younger than Pete and hits for average as well a power.

[The Hot Corner]

The 3/54 is almost laughable

2 not 3.

Thanks, Pete got hosed imho

Pete and Boras greatly overestimated the market for Pete. The Mets weren't the only ones unwilling to offer Pete anywhere near the 5-7 years for $165-200 mil. that Boras initially floated out there. Pete took what is essentially a 1 year. deal at a high pay (bonus & salary), because it was the best offer he could get.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Officially announced today.