Braves '24

[Frayed Knot]

So with the attention on the big name FAs at this time of year, the Braves quietly dealt five players to the ChiSox for lefty reliever Aaron Bummer.
Not a huge move but one kind of typical of them to go under-the-radar while everyone else is gawking at Yamamoto, Ohtani, Snell, etc. Plus, let's face it, when you're coming
off a year where five of your starting nine wind up in the top 20 MVP slots including #s 1, 4, and 7, you probably don't need to do a lot except tinker around the edges (plus
maybe figure out how to beat the Phils in October).

Bummer [insert name jokes here], 30, is coming off a rough year but had several good ones before that. He Ks a lot but BBs a lot too. iow, he's a lefty reliever but one
near his prime with a contract for '24 and club options for '25 & '26
The biggest name going back is Michael Soroka. Their 1st round (28th) pick in 2015 out of HS in Calgary, Alberta debuted in the majors just three years later (surprised
they waited that long) and in his true rookie season in '19 he was #2 ROY (just behind Pete and ahead of Tatis) and 6th in CY (because of course he was). But then during his
third start of the shortened 2020 season he tore his achilles tendon at CitiField. He then re-tore it during rehab and missed not just the rest of '20 but all of '21 and '22.
He had a few decent games in '23 but some clunkers as well and wound up throwing just 32 innings for a total of 46 ML IP over the last four years since his lone full season in
2019. Tough call to give up on a guy with talent who just turned 26 but I guess they didn't like what they saw last year and weren't willing to wait him out any longer.

[MFS62]

From SNY:

Free agent relief pitcher Reynaldo Lopez, a potential target for the Mets this offseason, has agreed to a three-year, $30 million deal with the Braves.
Over the last three seasons, Lopez posted a 3.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP with 201 strikeouts in 189 innings over 149 appearances (including 10 starts) for the Chicago White Sox.

Later

[Centerfield]

In a separate trade, they sent Kyle Wright and Nick Anderson to the Royals for Jackson Kowar. Kowar is 27 years old and pitched to a 6+ ERA this past year and had a WHIP of 1.929. But like Bummer, that's not really indicative of his larger body of work. In parts of 3 big league seasons, he has an ERA of 9.12 with a WHIP above 2. So naturally, he'll win the Cy Young in 2024.

The trades are maybe a bit puzzling, but make sense if you consider them a salary/roster space dump.

Some Braves writers see this as a precursor to bigger moves.

With the complete haul Atlanta sent to Chicago, the Braves now have 37 players on their 40-man roster. In addition, about $3.5 million was taken off of Atlanta’s payroll. This creates the opportunity for Alex Anthopoulos to raid the free agent market with a little more money.

AA made it clear that the plan was for Atlanta’s payroll to increase in 2024. The assumption could very well be made that this move puts the Braves in prime position to sign a big-name free agent and spend some cash. Rumors of Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, and even Shohei Ohtani may be more in reach than most expected.

https://housethathankbuilt.com/posts/6- ... hfewnf60mw

This makes sense to me because now that they have made this move the Braves will only need about $546.5M more to be in play for Ohtani.

[Lefty Specialist]

Soroka's certainly a buy-low candidate. Can see why the Braves tired of him but as one of 5 players for Aaron Freaking Bummer? Hmm.

Sox are so screwed up right now that he might actually be able to get his mojo back in a low-pressure environment.

[G-Fafif]

They grabbed Cano, now they go for the kid from that trade, Kelenic.

[Frayed Knot]

Don't have a handle on any of the other four names involved, but I think we all know how this plays out: Kelenic finds himself by May and by July has agreed to an eight year deal buying out all his arb years plus the first few FA seasons for well under market rates. Four All Star games later he'll be a FA in his early 30s as the Braves won't resign him.

[metirish]

Won? What does that even mean? And I totally agree with FK , wait and see , Jon

[Edgy MD]

Yeah! Show your work, Jon!

[TransMonk]

Don't have a handle on any of the other four names involved, but I think we all know how this plays out: Kelenic finds himself by May and by July has agreed to an eight year deal buying out all his arb years plus the first few FA seasons for well under market rates. Four All Star games later he'll be a FA in his early 30s as the Braves won't resign him.

After that, the Mets will sign him to a six year deal, he'll suck the first year, be injured for the second, be suspended for PEDs in the third then the Mets will pay him to play somewhere else for the remainder (prolly SEA). He'll be part of a World Championship team for SEA at age 38 and Heyman declares SEA the winner of the original deal.

[A Boy Named Seo]

I've never wanted Kelenic to max out as Joc Pederson, but here we are.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Don't worry everyone, the Braves are still in on Shohei, per MLB network.

[Frayed Knot]

Won? What does that even mean? ... wait and see , Jon

Given that the whole idea of trades needing to be assigned 'winners' and 'losers' is dubious to start with, I think what
Heyman is going with here is that the Mets were immediately labeled as losers in the original Kelenic deal especially
as most fans referred to it as the 'Cano deal' at the very beginning. But, since then, with the emergence of Diaz, the
non-emergence of the pitchers the Mets sent to Seattle, and now Seattle's giving up on Kelenic as part of a salary
dump trade (not Kelenic but the other guys going with him) after getting a couple of below par seasons from him,
the trade looks more like a win for NYM & BVW

Still more to be written of course. One of the pitchers the Braves are sending is described as high ceiling even though
has yet to pitch as a professional due to TJS. Maybe that guy comes through as gives the Ms lots of wins. In the
meantime, Kelenic is likely to be the Braves LF going forward (they declined the option on Eddie Rosario) although
quite possibly it'll be as the LH side of a platoon as Atlanta tries to figure out if they can find a spot for Vaughn
Grissom's (RH) bat.

[MFS62]

Don't have a handle on any of the other four names involved, but I think we all know how this plays out: Kelenic finds himself by May and by July has agreed to an eight year deal buying out all his arb years plus the first few FA seasons for well under market rates. Four All Star games later he'll be a FA in his early 30s as the Braves won't resign him.

After that, the Mets will sign him to a six year deal, he'll suck the first year, be injured for the second, be suspended for PEDs in the third then the Mets will pay him to play somewhere else for the remainder (prolly SEA). He'll be part of a World Championship team for SEA at age 38 and Heyman declares SEA the winner of the original deal.

I'll take the under.
Later

[Edgy MD]

There's an interesting irony in the deal, in that he came to the Mariners in a deal where Edwin Diaz was the sugary sweetener on top of a lumpy Canó salary dump. And he leaves as the sweetener in another salary dump maneuver.

It sure gives you a good vision of the framework in which Jerry Dipoto does business, if nothing else.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, I was unaware of the two guys going with Kelenic but it turns out both have been around a while (three time zones over).
LHP Marco Gonzales had some good years for Seattle but pitched only 10 games last season and is owed $12.5 this coming
season where he'll be 32 y/o plus an option for $15 after that. That's an expensive 5th starter but Seattle is kicking in money here.

Evan White [BR/TL 1B] is even more puzzling. A 1st round pick in '17 out of U Kentucky, he's barely played and hasn't hit
in the limited time he has had. But the M's must have thought he was going to because he has a contract through '25 [$7 + $8]
and several option years after that. And it's not like the Braves need a 1st baseman.

As far as going the other way: Jackson Kowar is a 27 y/o righty reliever also with 1st round pedigree (KCR, '18) whom the
Braves just traded for three weeks ago.
Cole Phillips is the intriguing one but will be a ways off even if things go well. A 2nd round pick by the Braves in '22,
he's yet to throw a professional pitch due to TJS

So, yeah, the Ms are playing the money game here and it took Kelenic to allow them to do that. The Braves, as they did with
Oakland on several occasions over the last few seasons, are happy to take advantage of those conditions and will, at worst,
wind up with a platoon LF'er maybe just entering his prime.

[Frayed Knot]

Looks like we'll be seeing Matt Carpenter semi-often this year as the Braves just traded for the just-turned 38 y/o 1B/2B/OF

You may remember him from his .300 hitting/lower power days with StL [.318/.392/.418 in 2013 when he was 4th in MVP].
Or from his later years when he epitomized the power over BA trend [36 HRs in 2018 - 9th in MVP] but an under-.200 BA in
three of the last four years. Or maybe even from his ridonculous 2022 season in the Bronx when, until a late season injury,
his dead-pull approach put him above Aaron Judge in HRs/AB and, yes, that was the year Judge wound up with 62. He was
39-for-128 as a Yanqui with more than half his hits (24) going for XB and nearly 40% (15) for HRs
Here are Carpenter's OPS's since 2019, see if you can guess which was his Yanqui year: 726, 640, 581, 1138, 641

He spent '23 with SDP so the Pads sent him plus a reliever plus cash in exchange for some 26 y/o AA OF

[Edgy MD]

That's a weird career arc.

[MFS62]

If you're saying "Oh, fudge, the Braves got Matt Carpenter", we still have a chance.
The Braves just released him a few days after trading for him.
He's available for about $5.4 million.

Later

[MFS62]

From Yahoo Sports a few minutes ago:

Seven-time All-Star Chris Sale is reportedly headed to Atlanta.
The Boston Red Sox are sending the pitcher to the Braves as part of a trade to reunite with sough-after middle infield prospect Vaughn Grissom, according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
The Red Sox will reportedly give the Braves money in addition to Sale, who waived his no-trade clause to go to Atlanta.
This story will be updated.

Groan.
Later

[Frayed Knot]

Sale turns 35 during ST and has made 31 starts over the last three seasons combined.
Now 20 of those starts were last season so maybe he's getting things back together
after all the injuries. I suspect he'll be the guy who'll be tough on a given night but
also leave games early a lot; feast or famine kind of thing.

Vaughn Grissom was making an early splash right around the time Michael Harris was (in 2022) but
then got injured and hasn't seen much ML time since. Be interesting to see what the Sox do with him.
The consensus seems to be that he's Not a ML SS, not a regular one anyway. That small LF in Fenway
might be a good landing spot. Then all he needs to do is prove he can hit.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Sox evidently see Grissom as the new 2Bman. Getting him out of Atlanta frees up full-time work for Kelenik

[Centerfield]

Is Grissom on the level of Brett Baty? Just trying to judge what they gave up.

[Frayed Knot]

It's always tough to tell with Braves players because they don't spend a lot of time in the minors which is when the ratings get done. Their guys usually jump from Jr HS straight to the majors.

[ashie62]

Is Grissom on the level of Brett Baty? Just trying to judge what they gave up.

It's close. Vaughn Grissom could be their 2B-SS for years to come depending on the development of Marcelo Mayer

Braves are happy to get a year out of Chris Sale

Both players carry risk but in my eyes both teams did well

[Edgy MD]

FanGraphs DC predicts Vaughn Grissom (aka Mo Marquis) for 2.3 WAR this season at 23. Steamer predicts 2.1 WAR from him.

FanGraphs DC predicts Brett Baty for 1.7 WAR this season at 24. Steamer predicts 1.5 WAR from him.

They probably have predictive math about where they are likely to be at their ceilings, but not available to me. Nonetheless, more-expected-at-a-younger-age seemingly suggests that Grissom's rights are a more valuable asset than Baty's at the moment.