"Scary Rotation"
Posted: Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:13 pm
In another thread, a couple of posters labeled the projected rotation for the Mets as "scary." While nothing indeed goes as projected, I decided to measure it up against division rivals, to see what illumiates. The projections below are from FanGraphs.
Atlanta is a terrfic team, top to bottom and side to side. They would be terrific even if they didn't have a rotation that is the class of the division. Alas, however, they do, so a few things are going to have to go sideways for them not to win and win big. Charlie Morton could disappear at any time, but it'll take more than that to sidetrack them.
Philadelphia isn't in a particularly good team, but if the two guys at the top of the rotation bang away like FanGraphs thinks they should, they'll win a lot of games and be a post-season threat to anybody. These projections are largely based on playing out perhaps hundreds of season scenarios and publishing the average, so it takes a lot of confidence to predict Zach Wheeler will reach 200 innings — a figure they list for almost nobody. You'd figure that in 20% of the scenarios, he gets catastrophically injured, so he's pitching like 240 innings the rest of the time.
Miami is a particularly bad team. Their rotation — at least according to these measures — looks perfectly respectable and stronger than ours, but the team has almost no offense beyond Jazz Chisolm, Jr.
The Mets' key seems to be getting more innings out of the top of their rotation than FanGraphs is willing to predict, but the team's kid-gloving of Kodai Senga last season along with José Quintana's injury leave them bearish. It's a lot to ask Quintana to give them 200 innings of the same sort of work he turned in at the end of 2023, but that may be what they'll need.
Washington looks like a washout. They're the kind of team that doesn't know if they want the Trevor Williamses of the world to hang in there, or to lose their spot to someone else. It'll be a long hot summer in DC, but the fans will always have 2019.
Trades, injuries, disgusing childhood illnesss, and sudden rapid leaps forward from obscure names still have yet to play out, so this is merely a frame of the movie, if not the most encouraging of frames.
The Mets also seem to be the strongest in the 6-through-8 slots. Part of that is the greater number of starts expected to go to those guys, but part of it is simply projecting stronger there. So when guys start going down, this thread is worth revisiting.
Also, Spencer Strider seems like a dickhead.
| Atlanta | GS | IP | fWAR | Philadelphia | GS | IP | fWAR | Miami | GS | IP | fWAR | New York | GS | IP | fWAR | Washington | GS | IP | fWAR | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guy #1 | Spencer Strider | 31 | 185 | 4.9 | Zack Wheeler | 32 | 200 | 4.8 | Jesús Luzardo | 31 | 181 | 3.3 | Kodai Senga | 31 | 187 | 3.3 | Josiah Gray | 31 | 177 | 1.1 | |||||
| Guy #2 | Max Fried | 31 | 185 | 3.5 | Aaron Nola | 32 | 198 | 4.3 | Braxton Garrett | 29 | 164 | 2.6 | José Quintana | 29 | 168 | 1.7 | Patrick Corbin | 29 | 166 | 1.3 | |||||
| Guy #3 | Charlie Morton | 29 | 165 | 2.2 | Taijuan Walker | 31 | 175 | 1.6 | Edward Cabrera | 26 | 139 | 1.8 | Luis Severino | 26 | 144 | 1.6 | MacKenzie Gore | 28 | 152 | 2.2 | |||||
| Guy #4 | Chris Sale | 26 | 141 | 2.8 | Ranger Suárez | 28 | 155 | 2.3 | Trevor Rogers | 24 | 131 | 1.8 | Sean Manaea | 24 | 134 | 1.9 | Jake Irvin | 23 | 124 | 1.1 | |||||
| Guy #5 | Bryce Elder | 24 | 138 | 1.2 | Cristopher Sánchez | 23 | 126 | 1.9 | Eury Pérez | 24 | 132 | 2.1 | Adrian Houser | 23 | 122 | 0.9 | Trevor Williams | 19 | 102 | 0.7 | |||||
| Guy #6 | Huascar Ynoa | 6 | 36 | 0.6 | Mick Abel | 6 | 37 | 0.2 | Max Meyer | 19 | 110 | 1.4 | David Peterson | 11 | 60 | 1.0 | Jackson Rutledge | 16 | 91 | 0.5 | |||||
| Guy #7 | AJ Smith-Shawver | 5 | 27 | 0.3 | Nick Nelson | 5 | 27 | 0.3 | Ryan Weathers | 3 | 17 | 0.2 | Tylor Megill | 10 | 52 | 0.5 | Joan Adon | 8 | 44 | 0.5 | |||||
| Guy #8 | Hurston Waldrep | 5 | 28 | 0.3 | David Parkinson | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | Patrick Monteverde | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | Joey Lucchesi | 5 | 27 | 0.3 | Cade Cavalli | 3 | 18 | 0.3 | |||||
| Guy #9 | Dylan Dodd | 3 | 18 | 0.1 | Noah Skirrow | 2 | 9 | 0.0 | Bryan Hoeing | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | José Butto | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | Mitchell Parker | 3 | 18 | 0.1 | |||||
| Guy #10 | Ian Anderson | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | Griff McGarry | 2 | 9 | 0.0 | Sixto Sánchez | 2 | 9 | 0.2 | Mike Vasil | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | DJ Herz | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | |||||
| Total | 162 | 932 | 16.0 | Total | 163 | 945 | 15.5 | Total | 162 | 901 | 13.6 | Total | 163 | 912 | 11.4 | Total | 162 | 901 | 7.9 |
Atlanta is a terrfic team, top to bottom and side to side. They would be terrific even if they didn't have a rotation that is the class of the division. Alas, however, they do, so a few things are going to have to go sideways for them not to win and win big. Charlie Morton could disappear at any time, but it'll take more than that to sidetrack them.
Philadelphia isn't in a particularly good team, but if the two guys at the top of the rotation bang away like FanGraphs thinks they should, they'll win a lot of games and be a post-season threat to anybody. These projections are largely based on playing out perhaps hundreds of season scenarios and publishing the average, so it takes a lot of confidence to predict Zach Wheeler will reach 200 innings — a figure they list for almost nobody. You'd figure that in 20% of the scenarios, he gets catastrophically injured, so he's pitching like 240 innings the rest of the time.
Miami is a particularly bad team. Their rotation — at least according to these measures — looks perfectly respectable and stronger than ours, but the team has almost no offense beyond Jazz Chisolm, Jr.
The Mets' key seems to be getting more innings out of the top of their rotation than FanGraphs is willing to predict, but the team's kid-gloving of Kodai Senga last season along with José Quintana's injury leave them bearish. It's a lot to ask Quintana to give them 200 innings of the same sort of work he turned in at the end of 2023, but that may be what they'll need.
Washington looks like a washout. They're the kind of team that doesn't know if they want the Trevor Williamses of the world to hang in there, or to lose their spot to someone else. It'll be a long hot summer in DC, but the fans will always have 2019.
Trades, injuries, disgusing childhood illnesss, and sudden rapid leaps forward from obscure names still have yet to play out, so this is merely a frame of the movie, if not the most encouraging of frames.
The Mets also seem to be the strongest in the 6-through-8 slots. Part of that is the greater number of starts expected to go to those guys, but part of it is simply projecting stronger there. So when guys start going down, this thread is worth revisiting.
Also, Spencer Strider seems like a dickhead.