The Crane Pool Forum

SPW = Starting Pitcher Wins

Wins by the 2024 Mets That Have Been Credited to the Starting Pitcher

APRIL

• April 7: Mets 3, Reds 1; Win by Sean Manaea (Game Nine on the Season)
• April 11: Mets 16, Braves 4; Win by José Quintana (Game 12)
• April 12: Mets 6, Royals 1; Win by Luis Severino (Game 13)
• April 17: Mets 9, Pirates 1; Win by Severino (Game 18)

MAY

• May 6: Mets 4, Cardinals 3; Win by Manaea (Game 35)
• May 7: Mets 7, Cardinals 5; Win by José Butto (Game 36)
• May 19: Mets 7, Marlins 3; Win by Manaea (Game 46)

So, that's none in March, four in April, and three so far in the almost-finished month of May. In 52 games.

Wins credited to pitchers are a very deceptive, but you can find meaning in them as long as you're not looking for them to mean what they claim to mean. Our starters are on a pace for 21.81 wins credited to their record. Total.

By comparison, Seth Lugo has 8 by himself (to go with a sub 1.75 ERA).

Lugo and Wheeler would be the beginning of a hell of a rotation

Also Trevor Williams: 5-0, 2.22

My rooting interests aside, I've got to be happy for the guy, taking advantage of the opportunity when it seemed like he had given the Mets bullpen the best years of his life, waiting for the team to allow him to be what he knew he could be while they bypassed him with brand-name starters.

By the time Aaron Heilman escaped that fate, it was too late for him.

I believe Lugo and Wacha were COVID season starters

The Royals have a very nice ballclub

Wins by the 2024 Mets That Have Been Credited to the Starting Pitcher

APRIL

• April 7: Mets 3, Reds 1; Win by Sean Manaea (Game Nine on the Season)
• April 11: Mets 16, Braves 4; Win by José Quintana (Game 12)
• April 12: Mets 6, Royals 1; Win by Luis Severino (Game 13)
• April 17: Mets 9, Pirates 1; Win by Severino (Game 18)

MAY

• May 6: Mets 4, Cardinals 3; Win by Manaea (Game 35)
• May 7: Mets 7, Cardinals 5; Win by José Butto (Game 36)
• May 19: Mets 7, Marlins 3; Win by Manaea (Game 46)
• May 31: Mets 10, Diamondbacks 9; Win by Severino (Game 57)

End of Season Projection: 22.74

Most Wins by a Mets Starting Pitcher

1) Tom Seaver, 1969: 25
2) Dwight Gooden, 1985: 24
2024 Mets Projected to End of Season: 22.74
3) Tom Seaver, 1975: 22
T4) Tom Seaver, 1972: 21
T4) Jerry Koosman, 1976: 21
T6) Tom Seaver, 1971: 20
T6) David Cone, 1988: 20
T6) Frank Viola, 1990: 20
T6) R.A. Dickey, 2012: 20
T10) Jerry Koosman, 1968: 19
T10) Tom Seaver, 1973: 19
T10) Dwight Gooden, 1990: 19

As absurd as the situation is, I don't think the pattern will be sustained across the season. I do think that, if philosophies don't change, similar patterns will emerge across future seasons.

Is there SPW data for all teams or for MLB as a whole?
I'd guess (without additional data) that teams with bad bullpens and/or bad offenses have similar percentages.
And it would be interesting to see which problem (bullpen or offense) more directly correlates to SPW percentage.

Later

Indeed, context matters.

	Team	G	SPW	Proj.
1	PHI	58	30	83.79
2	NYY	59	28	76.88
3	KCR	59	25	68.64
4	LAD	59	24	65.90
5	BAL	55	22	64.80
6	CLE	57	20	56.84
7	MIN	57	20	56.84
8	SEA	59	20	54.92
9	ATL	55	20	58.91
10	BOS	58	18	50.28
11	HOU	58	18	50.28
12	STL	55	18	53.02
13	SDP	60	18	48.60
14	TOR	56	17	49.18
15	ARI	57	16	45.47
16	CIN	57	16	45.47
17	WSN	56	16	46.29
18	PIT	57	15	42.63
19	SFG	58	15	41.90
20	LAA	57	14	39.79
21	TEX	57	14	39.79
22	DET	57	13	36.95
23	OAK	59	13	35.69
24	CHC	58	13	36.31
25	TBR	58	12	33.52
26	MIA	58	12	33.52
27	CHW	58	11	30.72
28	COL	56	10	28.93
29	MIL	57	10	28.42
30	NYM	57	8	22.74
	ALL TEAMS	1722	506	47.60

I wonder if those numbers would deter a free agent top flight starting pitcher from signing with the Mets. They would think of DeGrom who pitched his butt off and, while piling up impressive metrics, never got as many wins as those numbers should have produced.
Later

The only numbers that matter to top flight starting pitchers are the ones Steve Cohen will give them. Wins are have always been the most irrelevant stat for pitchers anyway, other than to signal something about the team in big numbers as show by this thread.

Why should Jacob DeGrom's W-L influence anything? He won a Cy Young without a lot of wins and most of the teammates that didn;t support him are long gone, as is deGrom.

It may be irrelevant to the new stats people when evaluating a particular pitcher. But pitchers are human; they have egos. And no matter what they say in the post game clubhouse, they will feel disheartened if the team wins and they didn't get credit for it. It is human nature. And that can't be measured.

Later

You said this made-up stat would "deter" a player from signing now you're making a completely different argument about players' feeeeeeelings

Johnny Lunchbucket wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 1:05 pm You said this made-up stat would "deter" a player from signing now you're making a completely different argument about players' feeeeeeelings

Two thoughts in two different posts. Not everything has to be related. Life is not an equation.
But if you want to put those two things together, let me do it for you. They are not contradictory, but related.
I believe they would look at that stat and feel they didn't want to come here.
Not everything can be measured.
If you could measure human nature, you'd be in the running for a Nobel Prize.
I don't parse your posts trying to be insulting or snarky. Please show me the same respect.

Later

Even if a pitcher were to consider the likelihood a gaining 'Ws' as an incentive, in order to shun the Mets they'd have to believe that
the organization conducts restraining starters' decisions as some sort of strategy or policy. But y'know what's the biggest factor in
limiting NYM starter wins? NYM starters. Going 80+ pitches in four innings while serving up multiple early HRs for example.

I could see this happening in a roundabout sort of way. Maybe it already did happen. For example, Ohtani had no interest in coming here. Because the Mets, relative to the Dodgers (and the Yankees), sucked. And so the Mets weren't gonna win as often. And if the Mets don't win, Obtani ain't gonna get as many pitcher wins as he would with the Dodgers, the thinking goes, all things being equal.

That's probably how it went with Yamamoto, too.

The notion that a pitcher would be hesitant to sign because the team's starters didn't assemble adequate wins is absurd. You know who else doesn't care about this stat? Player agents.

You brought up the example of deGrom. Not only is there zero evidence of deterrence but in fact two of the most accomplished pitchers in the world signed here despite his example. That's because it doesn't happen.

Reversal of fortune in progress!!

Wins by the 2024 Mets That Have Been Credited to the Starting Pitcher

APRIL

• April 7: Mets 3, Reds 1; Win by Sean Manaea (Game Nine on the Season)
• April 11: Mets 16, Braves 4; Win by José Quintana (Game 12)
• April 12: Mets 6, Royals 1; Win by Luis Severino (Game 13)
• April 17: Mets 9, Pirates 1; Win by Severino (Game 18)
  APRIL TOTAL: 4

MAY

• May 6: Mets 4, Cardinals 3; Win by Manaea (Game 35)
• May 7: Mets 7, Cardinals 5; Win by José Butto (Game 36)
• May 19: Mets 7, Marlins 3; Win by Manaea (Game 46)
• May 31: Mets 10, Diamondbacks 9; Win by Severino (Game 57)
  MAY TOTAL: 4

JUNE

• June 3: Mets 8, Nationals 7; Win by Tylor Megill (Game 60)
  JUNE TOTAL (to date): 1

End of Season Projection: 24.30

Hello, Crane Pool, my name is June. Glad to meet you.


Wins by the 2024 Mets That Have Been Credited to the Starting Pitcher

APRIL

• April 7: Mets 3, Reds 1; Win by Sean Manaea (Game Nine on the Season)
• April 11: Mets 16, Braves 4; Win by José Quintana (Game 12)
• April 12: Mets 6, Royals 1; Win by Luis Severino (Game 13)
• April 17: Mets 9, Pirates 1; Win by Severino (Game 18)
  
  APRIL TOTAL: 4

MAY

• May 6: Mets 4, Cardinals 3; Win by Manaea (Game 35)
• May 7: Mets 7, Cardinals 5; Win by José Butto (Game 36)
• May 19: Mets 7, Marlins 3; Win by Manaea (Game 46)
• May 31: Mets 10, Diamondbacks 9; Win by Severino (Game 57)
  
  MAY TOTAL: 4

JUNE

• June 3: Mets 8, Nationals 7; Win by Tylor Megill (Game 60)
• June 4: Mets 6, Nationals 3; Win by David Peterson (Game 61)
• June 5: Mets 9, Nationals 1; Win by Severino (Game 62)
• June 12: Mets 12, Marlins 4; Win by Peterson (Game 66)
• June 14: Mets 2, Padres 1; Win by Manaea (Game 68)
• June 15: Mets 5, Padres 1; Win by Quintana (Game 69)
• June 16: Mets 11, Padres 6; Win by Megill (Game 70)
• June 17: Mets 14, Rangers 2; Win by Peterson (Game 71)
• June 21: Mets 11, Cubs 1; Win by Quintana (Game 74)
• June 23: Mets 5, Cubs 2; Win by Severino (Game 76)
• June 26: Mets 12, Yankees 2; Win by Manaea (Game 78)
  
  JUNE TOTAL (to date): 11

End of Season Projection: 39.46

NL RANK: 10th out of 15

MLB RANK: Tied for 21st out of 30