The Crane Pool Forum

In passing two teams last night, the Mets wake up to find five more teams and the third Wild Card spot within a single game's reach.

The second Wild Card is only a single game further ahead.

And those two other teams they passed sit within one half and one game behind them.

All told, nine teams sit within three games of one another.

There's going to be a LOT of movement in the standings this week.

Also, it's a very hot week, particularly in the Midwest, for whatever that's worth. Playing under a roof in Texas may be something of a lucky break for the Mets.

Clusterfuck is more like it. Amirite people?!?

Makes it fun. Every game matters. A lot more fun than having all those teams out of it.

Boy, the NL sucks. For the Mets to have played as badly as they did for the first two months of the season and still be in the thick of it is, well, Amazing.

Even the teams above them suck. Washington, St. Louis, San Francisco, Pittsburgh. All trash

I told somebody a week ago that the Mets were one good week from contending for a playoff spot. Part of that is there is a whole lot of mediocrity in the NL, but a few good breaks moving forward and a shrewd deal or two makes us better than .500, which will be good enough.

I'm here to tell all losers — we're ALL one good week away from being contenders.

Bob Alpacadaca wrote: ↑Tue Jun 18, 2024 9:17 am Makes it fun. Every game matters. A lot more fun than having all those teams out of it.

Well, there are two very different forces in play here.

#1 is that the WC expansion era has of course created a situation where more teams 'are still in it' for a longer period.
That's simply a numerical fact. Whether or not you consider that 'more fun' is a matter of opinion.

#2 is what the league will no doubt trumpet as 'parity' and pat themselves on the back for it. But what's really causing this
middle-class log-jam currently going on in both leagues is more a case of disparity.

In most baseball seasons most of the teams fall between a .400 and .600 winning percentage. The average number of teams
over the last 26 full seasons (since 1998 but I'm chucking 2020 out the window) Not ending up between those two goal posts
is between five and six. At the extremes, twice it's been as high as ten (2002, 2019) and in 2007 there were none.

Currently there are nine which continues a recent trend where the number above .600 or below .400 has been higher (nearly 9/yr since 2018)
2018 = 8 (3 above, 5 below); 2019 = 10 (6, 4); 2021 = 9 (3, 6); 2022 = 9 (5, 4); 2023 = 8 (4, 4)
Not sure exactly what this recent trend shows except maybe that, once again, the "fact" that increased salary caps promotes increased
league parity has once again been shown to not hold water.

But this season there's something more, namely that we've currently got a number of teams WAY over or under those 60/40 benchmarks:
Yanx who just lost 2/3 to fall to a .676 winning pct; Phils = .667; Orioles = .662; Guardians = .638, while the currently teetering
Dodgers squad squeaks by at only .608
On the other side we've got: A's = .351; Rox = .347; Marlins = .319; White Sox = .260!!

So basically the top teams are beating up on everyone while the bottom feeders are being beat up on by everyone. And while you can
claim that this is the normal state of affairs in sports I'd argue that this recent trend of more very good AND very bad teams exaggerates
the effect and pushes the middle class folks away from both extremes and therefore closer to each other.

The closest team to the A's, currently the best of the bad, is LAA (teetering on the fringe at .403) which is the only team within .100 points
of the bottom feeders. And only a handful of teams is within striking distance of this year's elites [ATL, KCR, MIN, SEA] ie: in the upper .500's
That leaves 14 teams currently between a .450 and .510 pct, and that's where the biggest 2024 "race" is. Or, as WFAN jock Jody McDonald
liked to put it, 'it's like a fight to see who's going to be the tallest midget in the circus'.

Bucs? Passed 'em.

Friars? Passed 'em.

Nats? Tied 'em.

Jints? Tied 'em.

That was a lot of standings progress for one night. Mets now a half game out of the third Wild Card slot, and a single game out of the second slot.

Also, tying the Nats also puts them into a third-place tie in the division.

Nine teams within two games.

CLUSTER!

After trailing significantly just a few weeks ago, the NL quickly erased the gap and IL games are now just about even: AL leads 162-160
Which means you can no longer blame the 'pathetic' NL for the logjam as the league as a whole is essentially .500, just oddly distributed.

There are currently nine clubs sitting on a win pct between .474 & .500
- four at .575 or higher
- two in the .340's
- but not a single one in the wide gaps from .347 to .474, or from .501 to .574

Very odd.

Indeed, a big part of the reason that the Mets didn't move up more during their hot streak is that a lot of the cluster teams were beating up on AL teams instead of on each other.

Putting aside for a moment the cloud that's suddenly back over the Mets, tonight's win allows them to pass Pittsburgh (again) pull a full game ahead of the Cubs (again), and pull into a virtual tie with the Diamondbacks.

They sit a game out of the third and final Wild Card slot, currently held by San Diego, with Washington in between a half game ahead of the Mets and behind the Padres.

Tonight's win also gives them win in the season series against the Cubs. With all these teams bunched the way they are (Cluster!), that could turn out to be relevant.

They're also up 3-0 in the season series against Pittsburgh and San Diego, and tied two-apiece with Arizona.