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Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:48 am
by Gwreck
There are 64 possible combinations of NYM, ATL, and ARZ wins in the games Fri-Sun.
-6 cancel the games on Monday entirely: NYM and either ATL or ARZ has clinched and there is no seeding at issue.
-13 scenarios have NYM and either ATL or ARZ clinching before Monday, but seeding still undecided.
-My personal favorite: 10 scenarios have NYM clinching in advance, but the games matter to determine if ATL or ARZ gets the wild card. In 7 of these instances, NYM’s seed is undecided, and in 3 instances it doesn’t matter. (Should this situation come to pass, Mets need to tell MLB to pound sand, they’re not going to Atlanta, and let ATL and ARZ play a tiebreaker game between themselves, flip a coin, or whatever).
-Conversely, there are 2 scenarios in which ATL clinches before Monday and the games matter to determine if NYM or ARZ gets the final wild card. In both instances, NYM would need to win only 1 of the 2 games of the doubleheader to clinch.
-19 scenarios would require NYM to win either of the 2 games in Atlanta. In 10 of those instances, they can clinch with a win in Game 1 and Game 2 is cancelled. In 4 instances, if NYM wins Game 1, Game 2 still matters to determine if ARZ or ATL gets the other wild card. In 5 instances, the second game would matter only for NYM/ARZ seeding.
-13 scenarios would require NYM to win both games on Monday. In 9 instances, second game is cancelled if the NYM loses. In 4 instances, second game would matter for ATL/ARZ seeding.
-Finally, there is 1 scenario in which NYM is eliminated before Monday: MIL sweeps NYM, ATL sweeps KC, ARZ sweeps SD.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 3:52 am
by batmagadanleadoff
Gwreck wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:48 am
-6 cancel the games on Monday entirely: NYM and either ATL or ARZ has clinched and there is no seeding at issue.
-13 scenarios have NYM and either ATL or ARZ clinching before Monday, but seeding still undecided.
-My personal favorite: 10 scenarios have NYM clinching in advance, but the games matter to determine if ATL or ARZ gets the wild card. In 7 of these instances, NYM’s seed is undecided, and in 3 instances it doesn’t matter. (Should this situation come to pass, Mets need to tell MLB to pound sand, they’re not going to Atlanta, and let ATL and ARZ play a tiebreaker game between themselves, flip a coin, or whatever).
-Conversely, there are 2 scenarios in which ATL clinches before Monday and the games matter to determine if NYM or ARZ gets the final wild card. In both instances, NYM would need to win only 1 of the 2 games of the doubleheader to clinch.
-19 scenarios would require NYM to win either of the 2 games
in Atlanta. In 10 of those instances, they can clinch with a win in Game 1 and Game 2 is cancelled. In 4 instances, if NYM wins Game 1, Game 2 still matters to determine if ARZ or ATL gets the other wild card. In 5 instances, the second game would matter only for NYM/ARZ seeding.
-13 scenarios would require NYM to win both games on Monday. In 9 instances, second game is cancelled if the NYM loses. In 4 instances, second game would matter for ATL/ARZ seeding.
-Finally, there is 1 scenario in which NYM is eliminated before Monday: MIL sweeps NYM, ATL sweeps KC, ARZ sweeps SD.
This is crazy. It's much easier, and saner, to simply root for the Mets to clinch a playoff spot as early as possible. I'm just gonna root for the Mets to win every game they play.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 6:34 am
by Bob Alpacadaca
Gwreck wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:48 am
There are 64 possible combinations of NYM, ATL, and ARZ wins in the games Fri-Sun.
-6 cancel the games on Monday entirely: NYM and either ATL or ARZ has clinched and there is no seeding at issue.
-13 scenarios have NYM and either ATL or ARZ clinching before Monday, but seeding still undecided.
-My personal favorite: 10 scenarios have NYM clinching in advance, but the games matter to determine if ATL or ARZ gets the wild card. In 7 of these instances, NYM’s seed is undecided, and in 3 instances it doesn’t matter. (Should this situation come to pass, Mets need to tell MLB to pound sand, they’re not going to Atlanta, and let ATL and ARZ play a tiebreaker game between themselves, flip a coin, or whatever).
-Conversely, there are 2 scenarios in which ATL clinches before Monday and the games matter to determine if NYM or ARZ gets the final wild card. In both instances, NYM would need to win only 1 of the 2 games of the doubleheader to clinch.
-19 scenarios would require NYM to win either of the 2 games
in Atlanta. In 10 of those instances, they can clinch with a win in Game 1 and Game 2 is cancelled. In 4 instances, if NYM wins Game 1, Game 2 still matters to determine if ARZ or ATL gets the other wild card. In 5 instances, the second game would matter only for NYM/ARZ seeding.
-13 scenarios would require NYM to win both games on Monday. In 9 instances, second game is cancelled if the NYM loses. In 4 instances, second game would matter for ATL/ARZ seeding.
-Finally, there is 1 scenario in which NYM is eliminated before Monday: MIL sweeps NYM, ATL sweeps KC, ARZ sweeps SD.
This is interesting! Thank you for figuring it all out! Glad there is just one scenario where we are eliminated before Monday.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 8:22 am
by Gwreck
Gwreck wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 2:48 amFinally, there is 1 scenario in which NYM is eliminated before Monday: MIL sweeps NYM, ATL sweeps KC, ARZ sweeps SD.
This would not eliminate Mets; this is an additional scenario that would require Mets to win both games of the Monday DH. Not sure why the model didn’t calculate that tiebreaker correctly.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:01 am
by MFS62
I almost didn't click on this thread because I thought it might be about who should replace JD Martinez in the the lineup and I already gave my opinion in the IGT.
Let's just win out over the weekend and end this mess.
Later
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:34 am
by Edgy MD
Somewhere in the MLB offices, there was somebody who foresaw all of this, hinted the notion that maybe — since the Mets and Braves both had Monday off — they should start that series a day early.
He or she was shut down before finishing the first sentence, and never spoke up again.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:56 am
by Johnny Lunchbucket
good work, G
I'm scared shitless
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 10:58 am
by Gwreck
The key thing to remember is that Arizona can easily miss out. If the Mets pick up net one game on them this weekend, Mets are in and the DH doesn’t matter.
And this is an Arizona team that just lost twice to an under .500 Giants team with nothing to play for.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:01 am
by Benjamin Grimm
I'd be breathing a little easier if the Diamondbacks had lost yesterday.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:46 am
by Chad ochoseis
The Diamondbacks close against the Padres, and the Padres can be eliminated from the NL West division race by the Dodgers tonight.
I haven't double checked, but I think if that happens, it would be in the Padres' interest to lose their final three to the DBacks, jeopardizing only their #4 seed while probably handing Arizona a WC spot (unless the Mets sweep in Milwaukee) and forcing the Mets and Braves to go all out on Monday for the last spot.
OE: this would result in both the Pads and DBacks finishing at 91-71, with the DBacks getting the tiebreaker. So it would cost the Padres their #4 seed and home field in the first round, but could be worth it.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 11:51 am
by Johnny Lunchbucket
I'm for a smaller playoff field
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:34 pm
by Edgy MD
Huzzah! One from each league! Or zero!
The high-stakes baseball being played right now would be insane!!
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 12:54 pm
by Gwreck
Exactly. 4 teams from each league was the right model.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:05 pm
by Benjamin Grimm
I liked it better when it was two teams from each league, and only first-place teams qualified. But those days are gone forever.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:20 pm
by batmagadanleadoff
Gwreck wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 10:58 am
And this is an Arizona team that just lost twice to an under .500 Giants team with nothing to play for.
Wow! Call 60 Minutes and the FBI. That should never have happened. Something real.fishy is going on. Either that or the DBacks will never win another game. Ever.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:37 pm
by batmagadanleadoff
batmagadanleadoff wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 1:20 pm
Gwreck wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 10:58 am
And this is an Arizona team that just lost twice to an under .500 Giants team with nothing to play for.
Wow! Call 60 Minutes and the FBI. That should never have happened. Something real.fishy is going on. Either that or the DBacks will never win another game. Ever.
I think it's looking real good for the Mets. Last month, the Brewers lost a game that they were winning by two runs heading into the ninth inning. So the Mets will probably sweep them this weekend.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 3:59 pm
by Centerfield
So to get this straight.
Mets vs. Braves
Mets are currently up 1 game. Tiebreaker TBD.
Mets gain 3 games in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter.
Mets gain 2 games in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter.
Mets gain 1 game in the standings. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.
Weekend is a push. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.
Mets lose 1 game in the standings. Mets need to win both games Monday.
Mets lose 2 games in the standings. Mets need to win both games Monday.
Mets lose 3 games in the standings. Mets need to win both games Monday.
Mets vs. DBacks
Currently tied. Mets have tiebreaker. Mets have one less win, one less loss.
Mets gain 3 games in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter to the Mets
Mets gain 2 games in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter to the Mets.
Mets gain 1 game in the standings. Mets clinch. Monday doesn't matter to the Mets.
Weekend is a push. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.
Mets lose 1 game in the standings. Mets need to win both games on Monday.
Mets lose 2 games in the standings. Diamondbacks clinch
Mets lose 3 games in the standings. Diamondbacks clinch
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:13 pm
by Centerfield
14 different combinations for the weekend.
5 scenarios. Mets clinch this weekend.
3 scenarios. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.
6 scenarios. Mets need to win both games on Monday.
If the Mets win at least 1 game this weekend, then there are only 12 scenarios.
5 scenarios. Mets clinch this weekend.
3 scenarios. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.
4 scenarios. Mets need to win both games on Monday.
If the Mets win a minimum of 2 games this weekend, then there are 10 scenarios.
5 scenarios. Mets clinch this weekend.
3 scenarios. Mets need to win 1 game on Monday.
2 scenarios. Mets need to win both games on Monday.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:23 pm
by Benjamin Grimm
I feel like I'm on the FiveThirtyEight site.
I definitely want to avoid the scenarios where the Mets have to sweep on Monday. I don't like the odds of doing that.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:36 pm
by Benjamin Grimm
Actually, I see 64 different scenarios. Over the weekend, each team can win zero, one, two, or three games.
| Mets | Diamondbacks | Braves |
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 0 | 3 | 2 |
| 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | 0 |
| 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 3 | 3 |
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:57 pm
by Centerfield
If I'm right, and i may well not be, i think there are 64 different outcomes, but 14 different net outcomes. And the outcomes in the middle are far more likely to occur the the ones toward the ends.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:21 pm
by Gwreck
Benjamin Grimm wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:36 pm
Actually, I see 64 different scenarios. Over the weekend, each team can win zero, one, two, or three games.
That's what I have too.
| Mets | Diamondbacks | Braves | Scenario |
|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
| 0 | 0 | 1 | Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC |
| 0 | 0 | 2 | ATL Clinch; Clinch with 1 Win Monday |
| 0 | 0 | 3 | ATL Clinch; Clinch with 1 Win Monday |
| 0 | 1 | 0 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Game 1 |
]
| 0 | 1 | 1 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 0 | 1 | 2 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 0 | 1 | 3 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 0 | 2 | 0 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
| 0 | 2 | 1 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 0 | 2 | 2 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses Game 1 |
| 0 | 2 | 3 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 0 | 3 | 0 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
| 0 | 3 | 1 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 0 | 3 | 2 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 0 | 3 | 3 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only |
| 1 | 0 | 2 | NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 1 | 0 | 3 | NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 1 | 1 | 0 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only |
| 1 | 1 | 1 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC |
| 1 | 1 | 3 | Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Gm 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 1 | Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Gm 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 2 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses Gm 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 1 | 3 | 0 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games cancelled |
| 1 | 3 | 1 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
| 1 | 3 | 2 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday |
| 1 | 3 | 3 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses game 1 |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC |
| 2 | 0 | 1 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only |
| 2 | 0 | 2 | NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 2 | 0 | 3 | NYM/ATL Clinch; Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 2 | 1 | 0 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games cancelled |
| 2 | 1 | 1 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only |
| 2 | 2 | 0 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 2 | 2 | 1 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL WC |
| 2 | 3 | 0 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Gm 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 2 | Clinch with 1 win Monday; Gm 2 matters for NYM/ARZ seeding only if NYM loses Gm 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 3 | Clinch with 2 wins on Monday; Gm 2 matters for ARZ/ATL seeding if NYM loses Gm 1 |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC only |
| 3 | 0 | 1 | NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games cancelled |
| 3 | 0 | 2 | NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 3 | 0 | 3 | NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games cancelled |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC only |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games cancelled |
| 3 | 2 | 1 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games cancelled |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | NYM/ATL Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | NYM Clinch; Monday games matter for ATL/ARZ WC and NYM seeding only |
| 3 | 3 | 0 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | NYM/ARZ Clinch, Monday games matter for seeding only |
| 3 | 3 | 2 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
| 3 | 3 | 3 | Clinch with 1 win on Monday |
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 5:50 pm
by Frayed Knot
Centerfield wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:57 pm
If I'm right, and i may well not be, i think there are 64 different outcomes, but 14 different net outcomes. And the outcomes in the middle are far more likely to occur the the ones toward the ends.
Sure. There are eight potential outcomes in a three game series: W-W-W; W-W-L; W-L-W; L-W-W; L-L-L; L-L-W; L-W-L; W-L-L
Looking at each game as a 50/50 proposition (not always true but reasonably close and it makes the math a lot easier):
- so there's one chance in eight [12.5%] of sweeping a three-game series, which you can also reach by 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = .125 or 12.5%
and the odds of being swept are the exact same.
But because there are more ways to get to either 2-1 or 1-2 those odds are considerably higher, 3/8 for both or 37.5%
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 6:00 pm
by Centerfield
So by that table, among the 64 different outcomes:
30 outcomes result in the Mets clinching outright.
18 scenarios require 1 win on Monday.
14 scenarios require the Mets to win twice on Monday.
Of those last 14 scenarios, 9 of them involve the Mets getting swept. So as long as the Mets win one game, there's only 5 scenarios out of the remaining 48 that require them to win two games on Monday.
Odds are a harder to figure out since the chances of any one result aren't exactly 50/50.
Re: Monday DH Scenarios
Posted: Thu Sep 26, 2024 7:26 pm
by rchurch314
Fangraphs actually has 50/50 coin flip odds percentages.
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/pla ... in-flip/wc
This favors the Mets, mostly because I think Atlanta and Arizona are projected as better teams.