Arenado?

[Frayed Knot]

With the Cardinals (83-79 in '24) going into "re-set" mode, they're making it known that they'll talk trade concerning Nolan Arenado and he, with his baseball clock ticking and only 35 post-season PAs over 12 seasons, has indicated a willingness to waive his no-trade protection if the destination is the Angels, Padres, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox, ...
or the Mets!

On the down side:
- turns 34 in April
- is no longer the defensive or offensive player he once was [hasn't won a GG since 2022, 99 OPS+ in 2024)
- is owed $74 million over the next three seasons (about $10mil of that still being paid by Colorado)


On the plus side, it's not like he's turned into a bad fielder or hitter, just not what he once was when he was a top ten MVP in five straight seasons ('15 to '19) and was winning Gold AND Platinum Gloves every year.
Also it probably wouldn't take much to pry him loose considering the money it would save StL while they rejigger things.


It's just a thought really and I don't expect this to happen. But in a possible 'What/If' situation where Pete signs elsewhere and some of the young IFs are traded for pitching, you move Vientos over to 1st and Arenado is a two to three season resident at 3B.

[Fman99]

He gives me very much a Robinson Cano-esque wrong side of the bell curve vibe. I'd prefer someone younger and better at sports.

[MFS62]

If they're going to invest $25 million/yr for a third baseman, I'd prefer they spend a few more bucks (hey, it's only money) and go hard for the younger, better, Bregmann.
Later

[Frayed Knot]

That's fine but Bregman -- younger but, at 31, not young -- is going to come long term or not at all.
He's already turned down 6 yrs/$156 from Houston so at the end of his deal he's going to be at least as old as Arenado will be at the end of his.

[metsmarathon]

i'd just rather do what it takes to keep pete.

i mean, maybe if arenado is coming for super cheap in return... like, a bag of balls or a used jockstrap signed by jose butto. his contract the next three years is 35 | 27 | 15, coming off a 101 OPS+... pass. it's not worth moving vientos over for that.

[Edgy MD]

Depending on the return in the trade, the Cardinals may well be willing to take on some of that salary burden.

[Centerfield]

Not even if they paid the entire contract. He’s 34 and has already started his precipitous decline. He may have an OPS in the .600s.

I’d rather start Acuna at 2B and move McNeil to third.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This feels pretty unlikely to me.

[Edgy MD]

Not even if they paid the entire contract.

I hear ya. I wasn't advocating. Just clarifying the question.

He’s 34 and has already started his precipitous decline. He may have an OPS in the .600s.

I’d rather start Acuna at 2B and move McNeil to third.

That's probably a reasonably strong possibility.

I'm not too keen on the notion that the Mets need a thirdbaseman.

[Centerfield]

It sounds like the Alonso market is not very strong. Not seeing any obvious upgrades I’d be fine with bringing back Pete.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Me too. I hope it happens.

[Frayed Knot]

He's really the next key move because you go forward from there differently depending on whether he's back or not.
My only purpose of bringing up Arenado is that acquiring him would be one scenario to consider in a post-Pete world.
Infield defense would be better and they wouldn't be locked in to anyone beyond the next three years aside from Lindor.
Certainly it's not the only option sans Pete.

[metirish]

[smg58]

Fangraphs gave Arenado 3.1 WAR last season, compared to Alonso's 2.1. And Pete would probably cost more years at a higher AAV (especially when you factor in what the Rockies are eating). I'm not sure I'm for it, but I wouldn't dismiss it too quickly either. The big question is whether or not you think 34 is too old for Arenado's power to come back, or that maybe he's been dealing with a nagging injury that had some time to heal.

Would I take full salary AND give up a prospect or two I might miss? No. But if the Cardinals would be willing to take Starling Marte and/or add Andre Pallante, I'd be willing to negotiate.

[The Hot Corner]

I only see Arenado as an option if the Mets can't resign Alonso.

My Plan B would likely be Bregman, solid defense and 6 years younger than Arenado. Doesn't cost prospects in trade.

Arenado would be a possible Plan C. His age and his diminished power concern me and the Cardinals are likely going to want 1-2 good prospects for him.

[Frayed Knot]

My Plan B would likely be Bregman, solid defense and 6 years younger than Arenado. Doesn't cost prospects in trade.
Arenado would be a possible Plan C. His age and his diminished power concern me and the Cardinals are likely going to want 1-2 good prospects for him.

Two weeks short of three years younger actually.
Arenado - 34 in April
Bregman - 31 in March

[Benjamin Grimm]

Those are three significant years.

[Edgy MD]

Especially for Jesus.

[Frayed Knot]

Those are three significant years.

As in, the three year age difference between the two is a significant gap, ... or, that the removal of the three years from the previously claimed six year gap is significant?
Never mind, both are significant in their own way.

Just remember though that Arenado comes locked into a three year contract (expensive, but at decreasing rates and quite possibly with StL kicking in part of the freight).
Any deal involving Bregman, OTOH, will be as a FA and at a length TBD but almost certainly longer than three years and probably at least five.
So in wanting to avoid Arenado at ages 34 thru 36 you may wind up with Bregman thru age 36 as well, or at least real close to it.

[Edgy MD]

Also, the assumption we seem to be working with is that the Cardinals will want big shot top prospects. Maybe or maybe not. Maybe they'll be hot for whoever the 2024 equivalent of Neil Allen and Rick Ownby is.

[smg58]

I wouldn't overestimate the demand, especially since there are not many teams he'd accept a deal to. I also wouldn't underestimate the desire of the Cardinals to clear payroll (especially beyond this season) and open space for their top prospects (one of whom plays third base).

[Benjamin Grimm]

Those are three significant years.

As in, the three year age difference between the two is a significant gap, ... or, that the removal of the three years from the previously claimed six year gap is significant?
Never mind, both are significant in their own way.

I meant that there can be significant decline between the ages of 31 and 34.

[Gwreck]

I wouldn't overestimate the demand, especially since there are not many teams he'd accept a deal to. I also wouldn't underestimate the desire of the Cardinals to clear payroll (especially beyond this season) and open space for their top prospects (one of whom plays third base).

Exactly. Taking Arenado would be doing the Cardinals a favor. They’re not getting to prospects in this trade…maybe some midlevel prospects if they eat the money.

[DocTee]

Count me in---his bat would more than make up for Martinez /Marte and his defense is stellar compared to Vientos. I prefer three years of him to six for Bregman. But I'm more concerned with the starting pitching TBH

[Edgy MD]

One thing that a-scares me is Arenado's weird-but-successful strategy of making almost every throw an off-balance sling as he falls toward the third base line, as if he's constantly drilling for slow rollers.

Obviously, he's had a terrific defensive career that I can't impugn, but I can see that habit catching up with the older version of him, and his defense rapidly sliding from elite to hold-yer-breath, and it's only the protective netting that keeps his throws from bouncing off the heads of assorted Keith Olbermann relations.