Back to the Future: Juan Soto Edition

[Frayed Knot]

So Tom Boswell touched on this topic a bit in an article linked here [in the HOF Wing thread] but in doing so he gave the impression of someone cherry-picking evidence so as to fit his pre-determined conclusion, namely that the ravages of time, injuries, and age would leave the Mets with an albatross of a contract in Mr. Soto's later years.

So I thought I'd try to get a somewhat more detailed blueprint of how the next 15 seasons might go for him.

Step one: Get the list of Soto's ten most comparable players [acc to BB-Ref] through his/their age 25 seasons. You've probably heard of most of them (in order):
Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Trout, Andruw Jones, Eddie Mathews, Miguel Cabrera, Mickey Mantle, Orlando Cepeda, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Not surprisingly the average OPS for Soto in his age 24 & 25 seasons (2023 & '24) is right about equal to that of the combined avg of the above crew (959.5 vs 955) at the same age (they’d hardly be his closest statistical matches if it wasn’t at least close).

Step two: So if Soto's OPS was near identical to that of the group of ten combined, let's see what their avg OPS was over the remainder of their careers and use that as a predictor of how he’ll progress/regress:

AGE	OPS		AGE	OPS		AGE	OPS
26	952		27	908		28	961
29	971		30	927		31	855
32	865		33	877		34	836
35	818		36	727		37	825
38	729		39	750		40	605

Should also point out that those average OPS’s are calculated via a decreasing sample size as the ages march on. In fact it’s really only a group of nine looking forward since Vladdy Jr is actually a few months younger than Soto so is also just now going into his age 26 season. Bryce Harper just played his age 31 season so he’s blank after that. Trout’s numbers drop out after 32; Andruw’s after 35, and Mathews, Mantle, and Cepeda saw their final ML season at age 36. So from age 37 thru 40 it’s down to just a trio of comps: Robinson, Griffey, and Cabrera.

For a reference point, the avg ML OPS for the most recent ten full seasons (2014 - 2024 excluding 2020) in 727.5 with a high of 758 (2019) and a low of 700 (2014)

So we can see that the average of the Soto-ish group peaked at age 29 and was above 900 OPS for each year through age 30 but then dipped below 900 and never returned. The group kept themselves above league average from age 31 thru 35 but then mostly around average from 36 through 39 before taking a dive at age 40. So how about age 41 since that will be Soto’s age in the final year of his deal? Dunno, as none of the others from that list who have already reached age 41 were still playing ball at age 41.


So what does all this prove?
Well of course it doesn't prove anything since, as always, your mileage may vary and past performance is no guarantee of future results and all that other disclaimer stuff. But if the remainder of his career mimics the typical one of his current closest comps then maybe the best way to think about it is to divide this contract into thirds. In the first five years we should expect a superstar performer. In the middle third still very good results but less likely to produce monster seasons. Then in the final five year segment he's more likely to be a $51 million/yr league average player with more days off and more frequent uses of the phrase; 'So how much money would we have to eat in order to deal him to ______?'

[MFS62]

I think you would have to factor the DH into those numbers. At first glance it appears that only Cabrera and Frank Robinson spent a lot of their final years there, and that reduced the wear and tear they would have had by playing the field every day (IMO).
That said, Miggy's OPS had dropped into the 600's by 38, but Frank's was still in the .solid 800's at the end. Junior was still playing the field at 38. when his OPS was .738. So you can't draw any conclusion from that.
As we get a larger sample size of the players affected by the DH, while Soto and Vlad will be moving toward the end of their careers, the numbers may be more predictive. I hope Soto, if he is still a Met, will have numbers closer to Robby and Junior than to Miggy.
Time will tell.

Later

[Frayed Knot]

Hitting is hitting whether it says DH next to your name on the lineup card or RF or LF or 1B
The DH may allow one to get more ABs in a season or play more seasons but it's not going to give you a boost in getting on base or slugging.

[MFS62]

No, but it gives the player the opportunity to avoid minor injuries he might get by playing the field that would keep him at a higher level of productive longer/ delay the decrease. Still a small sample size but that is my opinion.
Later

[Frayed Knot]

Would Mantle's career have lasted longer with a DH option? Probably.
But it wasn't going to do much to stop his offensive plummet from a career OPS of 1011 over the first 14 years of his career (ages 19 - 32) to 836 over his final four (33 - 36).

Now Mick had the added problem of not taking very good care of himself and hopefully our new RF'er is smart enough to do so (he could scarcely do worse).
But the idea here is to try and guesstimate what kind of hitter Soto will be 5, 10, 15 seasons from now. What position he plays isn't going to be the issue.

[Lefty Specialist]

I'd take a .825 OPS from Soto when he's 37.

[Edgy MD]

One thing Mantle had going against him (besides his knees and his habits) is that his decline appeared sharper than it was, as the league moved into a pitching-dominant era.

He packed it in, explicitly embarrassed that he hit .237 in 1968, probably aware but not quite wrapping his head around what a historic year it was for pitchers, when the entire league still batted seven points lower than him, slugged 59 points lower, and reached base 88 points lower.

If he stuck around for the lowering of the mound, he might have made a run at 600 homers. Probably wouldn't have made it, but I can't imagine the Yankees were in a hurry to go all-in on Joe Pepitone at first.

[Frayed Knot]

In Mantle's declining years ('65 and onward) his BA and power were down but not his walk rate which I can only surmise was due to pitchers/managers being still wary of his power combined with the Yanx no longer having anyone else in the lineup who scared anyone. Berra was retired, Maris in StL, Elston Howard was 37 by '66, etc., and Roy White and Horace Clarke weren't exactly equivalent replacements. So his walk rates in his final four seasons actually climbed as he aged, from 124, to 111, 146, and 148!! All, except the 111 in '66, were higher than what he was doing in his prime.

Despite it being widely speculated that 1968 was going to be his last season (with Denny McLain asking him where he wanted the pitch for the HR that broke his tie with Jimmie Foxx and all that) he didn't officially call it quits until the following spring so he was aware of the rules changes even if not in if/how much they'd change things. So he did go to ST in '69 but quickly realized he was done and called off the jam a few weeks prior to the season starting. Bouton made mention of it in the ST chapters of BALL FOUR

[Frayed Knot]

I'd take a .825 OPS from Soto when he's 37.

Yeah that age 37 from the combined Soto doppelgängers was a sudden 100 point OPS jump of an outlier, probably due to a bunch of guys taking their declining numbers with them as they cut out at age 36 (Mantle, Mathews, & Cepeda, plus Jones at age 35) leaving just a trio of survivors: Griffey, Cabrera, and Frank Robby.
By the next year their combined numbers had all dropped to league average too.

[MFS62]

Ted Williams and Stan Musial celebrated the age of 41 by putting up years of 1.096 OPS with 29 HR and .924 OPS with 19 HR, respectively.
And they didn't have the option of the DH.
Those are obvious exceptions but you never know how someone will age.
Later

[Centerfield]

Terrific work!

This is obviously optimistic in that a player who is bad enough to play himself out of the league or suffer a career-ending injury isn't around anymore to bring the average down. Perhaps some of this can be offset by modern training/nutrition, the universal DH (perhaps reducing the wear and tear that results in decline) and his work ethic (he has a reputation of being a tireless worker and perfectionist).

The chart shows 5 "Receiving MVP Votes" level seasons, 6 very good seasons (Lindor/Vientos range), 3 OK seasons, and one bad season. Yeah, sign me up for that now.

[Centerfield]

Ted Williams and Stan Musial celebrated the age of 41 by putting up years of 1.096 OPS with 29 HR and .924 OPS with 19 HR, respectively.
And they didn't have the option of the DH.
Those are obvious exceptions but you never know how someone will age.
Later

David Ortiz put up these OPS numbers to finish his career

Age 36: 1.026
Age 37: .959
Age 38: .873
Age 39: .913
Age 40: 1.021

And Ortiz, like Soto, is Dominican, so we should expect something close to this. Even Pujols (also Dominican) put up an .895 OPS in his last year of baseball (age 42) with the Cardinals.

[Frayed Knot]

Yeah, Papi's issue was foot pain.
Trout told him he couldn't retire off the season he was having.
Ortiz's reply was 'OK, let me use your feet and I won't'

[Edgy MD]

... and Roy White and Horace Clarke weren't exactly equivalent replacements.

I was looking at Roy White the other day. What an impressive stealth career he had. Playing in a low offense (and initially very low offense era), he scarcely put up an offensive number worthy of any notice from 1968 to 1977, but stayed healthy and piled up the WAR — 47.1 over that 10-year stretch.

I must admit that I had forgotten that Mantle had reported to spring training in 1969, but yeah, I remember the Ball Four passage now that you mention it.

[Frayed Knot]

White was my Yanqui fan/next door neighbor's favorite player, at least pre Thurman Munson.
Rarely got hurt, walked more often than he K'd, decent BA, good glove. And he hung around for fifteen seasons, most of them playing everyday or close to it.
He'd be a nice stealth answer to an Immaculate Grid >6.0 WAR category. He put up 6.8 & 6.7 in back to back years (1970 & '71)
About the worst thing you can say about him was that he was forced into LF because of a weak throwing arm and didn't give you the power you'd like from that position (only once topped 20) even for the 1970s.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Terrific work!

This is obviously optimistic in that a player who is bad enough to play himself out of the league or suffer a career-ending injury isn't around anymore to bring the average down.

This is the flaw in the data. The data is biased for the precise reason you state. The original post was a nice idea and FK definitely put some time into this. I would've tweaked it by including all seasons, even for players who were no longer playing. So, for a player who was retired at his age 38 season, I would count him as a "0" (Zero) for that year instead of not counting him at all. Also, I would've used OPS+ instead of OPS since we're comparing seasons that, in some cases, are decades apart. Mantle's 1968 season, as discussed, was an extremely productive season when judged in its proper diminished offense context. But the raw unadjusted numbers for Mantle's '68, unfairly, underrepresent their true value.


And yes, Roy White was a beast in his prime. A true star. Extremely underappreciated. He starred during perhaps the Yankees worst era -- when they were a team with no playoff aspirations playing in a crumbling stadium and in a city now dominated by the Mets, whose fans still hadn't come down from their Miracle hangover.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Also, I would've used OPS+ instead of OPS ....

Maybe even WAR.

[Centerfield]

I agree with using OPS+. WAR is tricky as Soto is really nothing like a SS that accumulates alot of defensive WAR.

Not counting the guys who stopped playing before age 41 skews the projection high. But assigning a value of 0 skews it way too low. No one puts up and OPS of 0. Similarly no one puts up an OPS+ of 0. One option is using league average as placeholders, but it's entirely possible that our superstar at age 39 is below league average. Assigning a value equal to the worst qualified player of that year is an option, but again, it's hard to know that the retired player would have been that bad.

Maybe something like assigning a .650 OPS would be a good placeholder.

[MFS62]

Determining the proper factor for missing players to smooth the numbers in FK's analysis might be a great topic for a SABR meeting, no?
He did a great job.
Later

[Edgy MD]

Similarly no one puts up an OPS+ of 0.

　　Cameron Maybin joins the chat.

More seriously, I typically treat a 60 OPS+ as replacement-level/zero offensive production. It perhaps (probably) should be higher, but that's my quick-and-dirty shorthand number. Obviously, such a character can still earn WAR on defense.

Similarly, I treat a .600 OPS as replacement level, though more thoughtful work would use a different baseline every year. My 60 OPS+ figure probably is subconsciously derived from that .600 OPS number, which might suggest how sloppy it is.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I agree with using OPS+. WAR is tricky as Soto is really nothing like a SS that accumulates alot of defensive WAR.

Not counting the guys who stopped playing before age 41 skews the projection high. But assigning a value of 0 skews it way too low. No one puts up and OPS of 0. Similarly no one puts up an OPS+ of 0. One option is using league average as placeholders, but it's entirely possible that our superstar at age 39 is below league average. Assigning a value equal to the worst qualified player of that year is an option, but again, it's hard to know that the retired player would have been that bad.

Maybe something like assigning a .650 OPS would be a good placeholder.

Ok. Then 75 instead of 0. BTW, Dick Allen had the same lifetime OPS+ as Willie Mays --- 156. But it doesn't solve the problem of how to treat active players that haven't reached a certain age yet.

[Edgy MD]

75 is probably better line than 60.

Here's a Redddit conversation on where the zero point lies.

[Frayed Knot]

So without redoing the whole chart again but using OPS+ and assigning a 70 score in each season for the four players who were retired by their mid-30s
(Mantle, Mathews, Cepeda, Jones), the progression looks like this:

Age 26 avg OPS+ (for the group of nine) = 152
27 - 143
28 - 159
29 - 161
30 - 152
31 - 137
32 - 136
33 - 139
34 - 127
35 - 127
36 - 99
37 - 93
38 - 88
39 - 87
40 - 72

All of which pretty much echoes the general purpose yardstick that the first 'study' came up with:
- first five years of the contract: expect greatness
- middle five seasons: still real good but not quite as elite
- final five seasons: hope for the best


And if it helps any, Soto as compared to the others in his (just completed) age 25 season?
MANTLE - 221*
TROUT - 186
SOTO - 178
VLADDY Jr. - 166
CEPEDA - 165
ROBINSON - 164
--- average --- 157
MATHEWS - 154
HARPER - 133
CABRERA - 130
JONES - 127
GRIFFEY - 122

... so he's off to a running start



* best of his career (1957) after which the Yanx tried to cut his salary for not winning the Triple Crown like he had in '56 - guess they weren't impressed with the .512 OBA
It was one of three seasons over 200 for The Mick, one of five over 195, and one of eight 177 or higher. Imagine if the fuckin' guy had taken care of himself and not trusted a bunch of quack doctors?