How Will He Thrive in Twenty-Five?: Jeff McNeil

[Edgy MD]

Having declined for two straight seasons, Jeff McNeil should really give a shout out to his agent for getting him a long-term deal back when he did. He's still signed through this season and next, with an option and a buyout for 2027, and right now, as a whole bunch of young infielders are pushing him from below, that's his life preserver.

Will he be able to grab it, and grab it as a Met? That isn't clear. His hand-eye coordination is still his calling card, and it is still pretty elite, but his decision-making hasn't been. And when righthanded batters flail at frisbee sliders two feet off the plate, he's the lefthanded batter flailing at the same pitches when they are coming at his dick.

Too often over the last two years, anyhow.

We all know that's not the entirety of who he is. He's got those bat-to-ball skills, a lot of hustle, an ass as red as they come, and a surfeit of defensive versatility, but if he swings at shit, there's a whole lot of Mauricio/Baty/Acuña/Williams/Peña/Baez/Rodriguez/Baro/etc. types who would like a chance to show him how it's done.

So that's his lot. Two seasons removed from a 140 OPS+ and 5.7 bWAR, does he have a bounceback year in him? Will he change his number again? Is he finally going to switch to golf?

[metirish]

Jeff will continue his decline, and lose his starting job by June

[Cowtipper]

Jeff McNeil is/was an illusion. He's had one good season in the past four and he had only one good full season before that.

I don't think McNeil is a Rey Sanchez, but he's not the post-Mets Daniel Murphy that he sort of looked like, either. I'll say .260-13-60 if he plays a full season, but I could see a good showing by a Ronny Mauricio for example getting him shown the door at the trade deadline.

He's an empty hitter and will continue to be one.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Jeff will continue his decline, and lose his starting job by June

This, more or less.

[Fman99]

By the end of May he'll be carrying Brett Baty's stuff around for him.

[Centerfield]

Jeff McNeil is/was an illusion. He's had one good season in the past four and he had only one good full season before that.

I don't think McNeil is a Rey Sanchez, but he's not the post-Mets Daniel Murphy that he sort of looked like, either. I'll say .260-13-60 if he plays a full season, but I could see a good showing by a Ronny Mauricio for example getting him shown the door at the trade deadline.

He's an empty hitter and will continue to be one.

He had an .884 OPS over his first 1024 PAs. That’s not an illusion. He’s been had 3 out of the last 4 years, but it doesn’t take away from what he did previously. He’s only 32. It’s possible he has something left in the tank.

One thing I was thinking is that he may have been one of those guys that benefited from the juiced ball. He has borderline power. Maybe those doubles and HRs turned into outs.

I have nothing to base this on, but I’ll guess he’s got one more great year in him. And this is the year.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Yeah I feel like going against the grain and predicting he improves across the board numbers wise and it makes for interesting debate about whether to flip him while he's hot or trade the younger guys for those pitchers we're going need.

[MFS62]

I believe the decline is real.
If he plays a full season, His max would be .265-10-60.
But I doubt he will play that many games.
So my actual prediction is 110 games, .259-8-45.
Later

[ashie62]

He will be a steady presence at 2B and do a bit better this year

No Mauricio to compete and I don't know if Acuna is the answer

Drew Gilbert Ryan Clifford and Jett Williams are more suspects than prospects and that may contribute to Jeff getting more work than many believe

.270. 13-55 .725

[roger_that]

I'm going to be hopeful and contrarian, and project a big year for him. .290/20/75, based on his surge before his hand injury.

Also, I'll project the possibility that his young competitors (Acuna, Baty, Mauricio) will push the Mets into dealing him off to a club that desperately needs a second baseman but has a starting pitcher to spare, after he demonstrates that his bat is back.

[Edgy MD]

That is some good predicting evuhbody.

[metirish]

Per DiComo , Jeff has a low grade right oblique strain ,no baseball activities for 7-10 days , will miss opening day and could be out 3-4 weeks

"This could be tricky" opines Mendoza

[Fman99]

Oblique? More like Oh, bleak am I right ?

[Benjamin Grimm]

It sucks for Jeff, and it's not a great thing for the Mets, but I can't help but think it will present an opportunity for someone with more future than Jeff, and less past, and getting there sooner rather than later may turn out really well. Acuna and Baty and perhaps Mauricio (if he's ready in time) are the most likely beneficiaries of this injury, but it's also possible that someone else may step in.

[MFS62]

Acuna and Baty may both start the season at the major league level. And Mauricio will be on speed dial.

Later

[Lefty Specialist]

Jeff was one of the few players who actually benefited from the defensive shift in baseball. He could hit it the other way when he wanted, and all those singles through the left side in 22 became 6-3 putouts in 23 and 24. He didn't adapt.

He's pretty ornery, so I don't expect him to change his approach in 25, with predictable results.

[Centerfield]

Counterpoint.

He did adapt in the second half of 2024 with good results.

Whether that's sustainable will be the big question.