Russia, Ukraine and NATO 2022

[batmagadanleadoff]

Adolf Hitler also was a TIme Man of the Year

JACK LEMMON: Not twice!

Ba-da-bum.

[metirish]

President Zelensky giving a powerful speech right now to Congress

[Lefty Specialist]

Zelensky has pretty big stones. A day earlier, he was in Bakhmut, where the heaviest fighting has been going on for months. Then slipped out of the country to come to DC. He must be a security team's nightmare.

It's fortunate that they included $45 billion for Ukraine in the omnibus bill, because Republicans won't want to give any more. What they don't understand is that we are destroying the Russian armed forces for pennies on the dollar, using zero American troops, and burning off our (and our allies') old excess military equipment. Zelensky's timing was perfectly executed.

As a bonus, the EU is really getting serious about renewable energy rather than Russian gas. And Putin should stay away from tall windows for a while, because this is all on him. If they lose (depending on what is defined as 'losing'), his hold on power will be tenuous. Certainly not what he had in mind when he launched this with dreams of a military parade in Kiev a week later.

Still a long way to go here. Russia still occupies a lot of Ukranian territory and there's the Crimea question. If Ukraine pushes for that it could be a lot uglier than it is now, if that's possible.

[MFS62]

Matt pedophile Gaetz and Lauren Boebert didn't stand up for Zelinsky, and didn't pay attention to his speech (looked at their phones).

Later

[Edgy MD]

He's certainly been explicit that they intend to fight for Crimea.

[Lefty Specialist]

He's certainly been explicit that they intend to fight for Crimea.

Well, he has to say that. But Realpolitik may intervene; Crimea would present enormous logistical problems and the population is a lot more Russian-leaning than Ukraine proper, one of the reasons it was so easy to conquer in 2014. The Russian Black Sea fleet is also based there, so there's plenty of firepower on site. There's been no popular uprising by the locals in the 8 years since the takeover, unlike the Donbas. Zelinsky would like to take back Crimea, but he might want to push the Russians out of his east and south first, then evaluate things from there. He's going to have a shattered country to rebuild, for one thing.

One intersting thing- this year, many Ukranians will be celebrating Christmas on December 25th, not the Orthodox Christmas on January 7th. It's one way they want to show that they're more European. Whatever happens, their trajectory will be aimed firmly westward from now on.

[Edgy MD]

Amazing that, with President Putin reaching out to President Xi to lend credibility to his regime, maybe ultimately weapons as well, and to secure China as a stable energy market in face of Western boycotts, Putin's attempt to expand Russian dominance has instead led to expanded Chinese dominance, and positioned Russia as a supplicant.

[nymr83]

Amazing that, with President Putin reaching out to President Xi to lend credibility to his regime, maybe ultimately weapons as well, and to secure China as a stable energy market in face of Western boycotts, Putin's attempt to expand Russian dominance has instead led to expanded Chinese dominance, and positioned Russia as a supplicant.

Just as China intended. Putin is trying to revive a vile communist dictatorship but he is instead propping up another one.

[Edgy MD]

Well, I agree with the late Senator McCain. I don't think he wants to revive the USSR, but rather the pre-Soviet Russian empire.

[nymr83]

After their success turning a celebrity into an arms dealer, the Russians have now decided to raise their game and take an American journalist hostage. I wonder what Biden will give up this time.

[kcmets]

Finland officially joining NATO in the next few days.

[Lefty Specialist]

...and Sweden in the on-deck circle. Good job, Vlad.

[metirish]

Some interesting stuff happening in Russia right now Wagner has gone rogue, surely this is the time for NATO to go all in with whatever Ukraine wants to finish this

[Edgy MD]

I didn't see the Wagner Group turning on Russia. That's a heckuva plot turn.

[Lefty Specialist]

Yeah, this is intriguing. First of all, Wagner has somewhere between 25-50,000 troops at its disposal. The question is, how hard do the Russians they encounter fight against them. They conquered Rostov-on-Don, a city of 1.1 million people, without firing a shot.

Putin's Russians are blockading the highways south of Moscow. Police literally stopped drivers near a bridge, took their car keys and left their cars there as a blockade.

This is crazy stuff, but there's no one to root for here. Prigozhin is an absolute monster, and Putin is, well, Putin. Don't see how this insurrection can be successful. Even with 90% of active troops in Ukraine, it's not easy to conquer Russia. Prigo is already wanted for arrest and I would figure he'll accidentally fall out of a window before his arraignment.

Fascinating stuff and I hope Ukraine takes advantage of the chaos.

[Lefty Specialist]

And just like that, apparently it's over. This is all very strange. I'd recommend all participants stay away from windows in tall buildings, though.

[TransMonk]

...but there's no one to root for here.

Yup. I have talked to Ukrainians who use the word "terrorists" when referring to Wagner. However, if there is more fighting in Russia it will hopefully ease the burden in Ukraine.

[Edgy MD]

I don't know who is responsible for flipping Turkey's vote on Sweden joining NATO, but what a turn of events.

I imagine details will be reported eventually, but I'm curious which NATO country brokered it and whether they used a promise or a threat.

[kcmets]

Seems the UN Guy brought them to their senses?

[Lefty Specialist]

I don't know who is responsible for flipping Turkey's vote on Sweden joining NATO, but what a turn of events.

I imagine details will be reported eventually, but I'm curious which NATO country brokered it and whether they used a promise or a threat.

I think a generous application of American F-16's did the trick.

[Lefty Specialist]

Ukraine is kvetching that they want to be in NATO ASAP. Understandable, but they need to expel the Russians from their territory first; other wise, ya know, World War III. I'm betting that NATO membership will follow shortly after they kick Putin's ass.