Russia, Ukraine and NATO 2022

[kcmets]

We need this shit like a big fucking hole in the head. I can't take much more.

[Lefty Specialist]

Putin needs to drum up a little support at home because things are going to shit in Russia. He's also trying to get a friendlier/intimidated Ukraine by hook or crook. Now, NATO isn't exactly united (Thanks, Trump), and he's testing to see how far he can push Biden. They're already playing cyber games, and are trying to gin up a story to go in and help their Ukrainian 'brothers' who are being hurt by the evil West. If he really crosses the border, it could have a domino effect (troop buildups in the Baltic states, sanctions on Russia, cutoff of natural gas to Europe in winter), all of which will suck. And of course it'll suck for Ukrainians.

What's needed is a face-saving way for Putin to back down, and there doesn't seem to be one that the West will accept right now.

[Edgy MD]

Creating chaos in the west and putting Biden up against the wall is already a win for President Pooty. I can't say I'm not nervous about what his endgame is.

[MFS62]

I don't think he will do anything until after the November US elections because he feels an elected Trump puppet majority in Congress will go easy on him.
Later

[kcmets]

8,500 US troops placed on high-alert status.

[metsmarathon]

I don't think he will do anything until after the November US elections because he feels an elected Trump puppet majority in Congress will go easy on him.
Later

i tend to think along these same lines. build pressure on the border with ukraine to stir up shit, and allow their (unwitting? witless? one of them...) allies in red hats to further destabilize america's strength, unity, and will, making it easier for them to waltz right in after november, with us in greater disarray and lesser standing to be able to push back even a little.

blame it all on biden, and get an even weaker, more corrupt america in return, plus a free ukraine.

[Edgy MD]

I don't think he will do anything until after the November US elections because he feels an elected Trump puppet majority in Congress will go easy on him.
Later

Is there any reason to think that the current Congress and administration will go hard?

NATO has managed to maintain a hard line against Russia for multiple generations because everybody knew where the line was. Now that we have what amounts to affiliate states in Ukraine and Georgia, that line has grown gray, and President Putin seems resolved to test it.

It doesn't help that we've been retreating from the Eastern borders in recent administrations, with Trump openly stating that the United States should feel no obligation to defend Montenegro.

[Lefty Specialist]

Putin was pissed when the Baltic States joined NATO back in 2004; when Ukraine threw off their Putin toady president in 2014, one of the first things that was discussed was Ukraine joining NATO. That's kind of a red line for old Vlad. It's why he's insisting that NATO rule out Ukrainian membership, and why he's keeping the pressure on.

It's also why NATO is beefing up its presence in Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia. Because if he succeeds in Ukraine, they're next.

Here at home, Russian agent Tucker Carlson is carrying water for Putin, decrying us even getting involved with Ukraine. Expect Fox to be pro-Russia on this if it gets ugly.

[Edgy MD]

I've kind of come to expect Fox to be pro-Russia, full stop.

[Edgy MD]

So, the U.S. pulling our embassy staff out of Kyiv.

They're being relocated to Western Ukraine, but dayim.

Is Russia even pretending to have a pretext for this anymore?

[MFS62]

I remember a line from a movie ("The Hunt for Red October"?) in which a CIA guy says, "The Russians don't take a dump without a plan".
I would think that Putin, an ex-KGB agent, would have a plan in for this , with several contingencies, based on how far he can go.
It might look something like this:

Plan - invade, no resistance - take over the country, set next target
Contingency 1 - invade - some resistance,
1A pull back to previous border
1B Stay where he is with new border.
Contingency 2 - invade - Ukraine all out resistance - action
Contingency 3 - invade - NATO assists Ukraine - action
Contingency 4 - invade - US full assistance - military and financial - action

Plan - don't invade , suffer international humiliation, but declare a victory to his Russian people. "I made then scared"

Whichever, it was just announced that the President of Ukraine thinks it will happen on the 16th.

Later

[kcmets]

You say Key-EV, some now are saying KEEVE.

One of my oldest friends is a stateside bishop in the Ukrainian church (no
really, I shit you not) and he says it's KEEVE.

Aside from that, what a scary shitshow just waiting to explode. Or not.

[Lefty Specialist]

Correct pronunciation is KEEVE.

Looks like contingency 2. Russia will invade, Ukranians will resist but they'll be hopelessly outgunned and outmanned. Russia will essentially shut down the internet and the power grid in the entire country, and engage in heavy disinformation. No video will escape the country unless it's Russian propaganda.

It'll essentially be over in a few days but there will be pockets of resistance. I'd expect Zelinskyy to be arrested and held incommunicado. A new president will be appointed who'll be more amenable to everything Putin wants. Then they'll declare victory and get out leaving a few troops in significant places and rapid-strike forces ready to go when needed. Vlad doesn't want a long, messy war on his hands. What he wants is Gulf War 1- overwhelming force and quick defeat; but he won't leave Saddam in place to cause trouble.

The West/NATO won't go to war for Ukraine and Putin knows that. He's hoping that he can survive the sanctions, by promoting cheating and counting on Europe to get tired of cold houses pretty quickly. China will back him but will watch closely, because this will be a rehearsal for their own move on Taiwan. If the west caves, they'll know they can get away with it.

Be prepared for gas here to shoot up over $4 a gallon, too, because that'll be coming pretty quickly once things get hot and heavy.

[kcmets]

Gas prices will be sniffin' $4 soon anyways. Pointing it at Eastern Europe
is a bit of an early stretch right now.

$5 a gallon gas is coming sometime in 2022. Wars or no wars.

[Lefty Specialist]

Putin appears to be backing down a little bit, pulling some troops away from Ukraine. Remains to be seen if this is the real deal or a feint.

[kcmets]

Well, he could move thousands and thousands of troops fifty yards further
from the border and truthfully say that he's pulling troops back.

[kcmets]

Not that truthfully is one of Putin's strong suits.

[Lefty Specialist]

Well, he could move thousands and thousands of troops fifty yards further
from the border and truthfully say that he's pulling troops back.

Well, we've got very good satellites that will tell us exactly what he's doing. He did the buildup in the open, and any drawdown will be just as open. Can't hide an army any more.

[kcmets]

Of course.

[Lefty Specialist]

Vladdy recognizes the separatist sections of Ukraine as separate entities and sends 'peacekeeping' troops, who happened to be right next door, whaddya know. Pretty close to all-out war at this point. Putin doesn't even consider Ukraine a separate country apparently.

Sanctions better be ready to go on a moment's notice because it looks like it's showtime.

[ashie62]

I saw earlier today that Russia brought in 5 billion dollars from foreign banks in the month of december.

This all has been planned for some time.

[Lefty Specialist]

Of course it has. Putin and his cronies will be fine. The Russian people will be made to suffer from sanctions, and their leaders will tell them exactly who to blame.

The question is how much pain can each side tolerate, and if the Ukranians can put up any resistance.

Meanwhile in Fox-land, Tucker Carlson is openly rooting for Russia. https://www.thewrap.com/tucker-carlson- ... t-treason/

[Willets Point]

I don't think he will do anything until after the November US elections because he feels an elected Trump puppet majority in Congress will go easy on him.
Later

I think Putin thinks of this differently, as demonstrated by his actions. After all Russia "annexed" Crimea while Obama was President, but didn't follow-up when there was someone one in the White House who'd look the other way. Putin understands how American politics works. If he invades Ukraine, and Biden doesn't respond, then it will just be used as another example of Democrats being weak and the Dems lose in November. But he also knows that after 20 years of Afghanistan/Iraq, that Americans have very little appetite for actual war, much less the WWII-level mobilization that would be necessary to actually defeat Russia. So Biden is likely to carry out bombing raids and targeted attacks around the edges which will eventually turn into a stalemate. The right will claim that Biden lead us into a quagmire and the Dems lose in November. Either way, Putin creates chaos and weakness in US leadership which benefits his ulterior goals.

[MFS62]

I moved up my timetable after that post. I agree with you.

Given the options I outlined in my Feb 14 Post, the winning move for Putin could be - Invade the two separatist provinces, then "1B - Stay where he is with new border."

This way, he can claim victory - "I rescued our people from Ukrainian oppression", then hold fast at the new border and not have to incur NATO military or US financial retaliation.
This also would make Ukraine happy because those provinces didn't want to be part of Ukraine anyhow.

If I were back in Combat Developments Command, I might have more information to flesh out the options. Of course, then I wouldn't be able to mention any of what I learned.

Later

[Edgy MD]

I don't think Ukraine is going to be made happy by being invaded. Nor do I think the allegedly separatist provinces are in consensus with regards to what they want.