western Canada tour back in the '80s
The question, of course, is when/whether the team should stop paying him year by year and plunge into a long term contract.
The comp that keeps popping into my head, maybe because it serves as the cautionary tale, is Ryan Howard. Both are large,
slugging 1st baseman who reached the majors in their mid-20s
Pete did get a slight jump on Howard by playing a full season at age 24 where RH was just getting his feet wet (39 ML ABs)
but Howard quickly jumped to higher peak seasons.
AGE | Ryan Howard | OPS+ | Pete Alsonso | OPS+ |
24 | 39 ABs | 122 | ROY-1, MVP-7 | 147 |
25 | 88 G, ROY-1 | 133 | Covid Season | 122 |
26 | MVP-1 | 167 | 133 | |
27 | MVP-5 | 145 | MVP-8 | 146 |
28 | MVP-2 | 125 | MVP-17 | 124 |
29 | MVP-3 | 141 | ----- | --- |
30 | MVP-10 | 127 | ----- | --- |
31 | MVP-10 | 126 | ----- | --- |
32 | 71 G | 91 | ----- | --- |
33 | 80 G | 115 | ----- | --- |
34 | 153 G | 92 | ----- | --- |
35 | 129 G | 96 | ----- | --- |
36 | 112 G | 85 | ----- | --- |
The mistake the Phillies made, and I remember thinking this at the time, is that by the time they signed Howard to a multi-year
deal he was already into his early 30s and in what turned out to be the start to a significant decline in both output and availability.
Had he been with the Braves (then or now) they would have wished him well and immediately set off looking for a replacement.
Of course had Pete come up with the Braves they probably would have signed him long-term coming off his rookie season (or
maybe while still in the middle of it) but the Mets haven't shown that they buy into that philosophy and certainly weren't going
to do it in the midst of the Wilpon/Cohen transitional mess.
Alonso becomes a FA the winter he'll turn 30 following the '24 season. Given the length of contracts now in vogue it'll be tough
NOT to sign him into his late '30s and we know that the track record of aging sluggers in the steroid testing era, even among
the elites (Pujols, Cabrera) isn't a pretty one. If you want to pick another slugging comp, Judge, with an MVP plus two other
top fives under his belt, just signed for 9 years starting at age 31. Be interesting to see how that one turns out.
So I guess what I'm asking here is, what's your plan Stan?