Ten Mets on the Ballot (Hall of Fame 2024)

[metirish]

I wish Wagner got more love

[Edgy MD]

A yes to Andruw Jones along with a no to Carlos Beltrán is tough position to stake out. To my thinking, anyhow.

[Edgy MD]

Andre Dawson says he has written the Hall requesting that his plaque be altered to depict him in a Cubs hat, rather than as an Expo.

I'm relatively certain that it's simply a matter of far more financial opportunities being afforded to him in framing himself as a Cub, moreso than any animus toward Montreal, but he'd do better to make such initiatives discretely. Someday there will be Major League Baseball again in Montreal, and there will be a cost to actively divorcing his legacy from there.

[metirish]

[Frayed Knot]

A yes to Andruw Jones along with a no to Carlos Beltrán is tough position to stake out. To my thinking, anyhow.

Mine as well. Andruw at his best was a terrific player but his age 30 and up seasons were mediocre at best.
The fact that he started so young made his 20's a complete decade of HoF level play but Beltran was still
contributing to teams in his second decade as well. Jones also got pulled off the field more than occasionally
for not hustling both on offense and in the field. I remember an exasperated Bobby Cox muttering to reporters
that he was running out of ideas on what to do about his lapses, 'I've already taken most of his money from
him' (fined him repeatedly).

Andre Dawson says he has written the Hall requesting that his plaque be altered to depict him in a Cubs hat, rather than as an Expo.

Here's where I go into my rant about how ridiculous the idea is that the insignia on the plaque makes one
a HoF'er for that team to the exclusion of any others he played for. People have been acting as this is the
case for decades now and it's driven me nuts for just as long.
I'll spare you all the full rant as you've heard it before.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Enjoyed the latest episode of the "National League Town" podcast on my morning commute, with the hosts talking about the 10 players with Mets connections on the ballot. Great episode!

[MFS62]

Andre Dawson wants to change his HOF cap, and my friends in Canada are pissed.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/ ... n-the-gut/

Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

Didn't the Hall make it their official policy that players can no longer choose which cap is depicted on the plaque? If that's the case going forward, it should certainly be the case for any retroactive changes.

[G-Fafif]

Enjoyed the latest episode of the "National League Town" podcast on my morning commute, with the hosts talking about the 10 players with Mets connections on the ballot. Great episode!

Thanks!

[Benjamin Grimm]

“It was an eye-opening experience for me,” Dawson said about playing in Chicago. “The adoration of the fan base, the welcoming from the city itself and the joy of being able to experience that feeling in the second half of my career. … I was one of the more popular players in Montreal, but I wouldn’t consider myself an organizational icon or the most popular. … When push came to shove and I became a free agent, I think it was handled poorly and in a sense I was really forced out. The change of scenery in Chicago rejuvenated me because of how warmly I was received.”

Does he think he's an "organizational icon" in Chicago? Or the "most popular"? He definitely had some really good years with the Cubs, but only six, compared to eleven with the Expos (and two each with the Red Sox and Marlins at the end of his career.)

[MFS62]

You, sir, just made a logical argument for why they're pissed.
Later

[Fman99]

Does he think he's an "organizational icon" in Chicago? Or the "most popular"? He definitely had some really good years with the Cubs, but only six, compared to eleven with the Expos (and two each with the Red Sox and Marlins at the end of his career.)

I have no recollection of him in a Marlins uniform. I had to look that up to confirm that that was even the case.

[metirish]

Jayson Stark makes a case for David Wright

Stark :One-And-Done?
No! Why David Wright deserves a long look on the Hall ballot


It was the day before Thanksgiving, just last week. So, much like you, I was thinking about turkey and mashed potatoes more than I was thinking about iconic Mets of the 21st century.

But then an always-thoughtful American League executive texted me, unprompted, with this important Baseball Hall of Fame bulletin:

Kirby Puckett is a Hall of Famer, so why isn’t David Wright?


OK then. We interrupt those dreams of the 5,000 calories I was about to digest to thank him for that thought, because it’s not just holiday-eating season. It’s Hall of Fame season. So naturally, ever since that text arrived, I’ve devoted way too many waking hours reflecting on the special career of David Wright.

Here’s what I’ve concluded about the Mets’ longtime third baseman/face of the franchise:

• His career ended way too soon, thanks to debilitating back, neck and shoulder troubles that wiped out his days as a full-time player after his age-31 season.

• So is he a clear-cut Hall of Famer, let alone a guy who is about to rumble into Cooperstown on his first spin through this ballot? No chance.

• But does he have a case more compelling than you might expect, especially in an era when voters seem to be shifting away from those magic counting numbers of yesteryear and gravitating toward players with big-time, impactful peaks? He does.

So before we get to that case, I have one holiday wish for how Wright’s first ride on the Hall of Fame roller coaster will wind up this winter:

He needs to survive Year 1 to make it to Year 2! I would hate to see David Wright added to the sport’s long list of embarrassing one-and-dones. In the words of that same AL exec, who had no vested interest in this topic by the way: That would be terrible.

So exactly how terrible? I have some thoughts on that.


The All One-and-Done team. By and large, when my good friends in the Baseball Writers’ Association of America vote, we’re mostly not the knuckleheads you undoubtedly think we are. We get lots and lots and lots of these votes right. No kidding.

But we have whiffed on some really good players, who deserved better than to get booted off the ballot after one appearance because they didn’t get at least 5 percent of the vote. Here’s a partial list of our worst one-and-dones, just from the last decade — and I didn’t even include any obvious PED luminaries:

2022 — Mark Teixeira
2019 — Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt
2018 — Johan Santana, Johnny Damon
2017 — Jorge Posada
2016 — Jim Edmonds
2015 — Carlos Delgado
2014 — Kenny Rogers, Luis Gonzalez
2013 — Kenny Lofton, David Wells


In our defense, we were dealing with massively overstuffed ballots in many of those years and not enough slots to include everybody. Still, every player on that list except Posada (42.7 WAR) and Delgado (44.4) finished his career with at least 50 wins above replacement (the Baseball Reference version). Edmonds and Lofton were in the 60s. So it’s hard to believe that not one of them collected enough votes to get even a second look.

That’s just awful. It’s also had an impact on how I vote. If I’m worried a player with that good a career could be an endangered one-and-done species, I’ve started doing my part to make sure he stays above 5 percent in his first year.

I’d prefer not to vote that way. I’d much rather rewrite or repeal the 5 percent rule. But if the Hall is going to force us to grapple with both that rule and a 10-player limit, it’s pushing us into ballot-management mode. So we’ll have to do what we’ll have to do.

Now, with that out of the way, back to the fascinating case of David Wright.


Wright’s first 10 seasons were spectacular. If we’d been writing a pick-the-active-Hall-of-Famers column a decade ago, 10 seasons into Wright’s career, he’d have zoomed right to the top of that list, alongside Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Joe Mauer, who also is making his first appearance on the ballot this year. Wright was still only 30 years old after those first 10 seasons (2004-13). And his eyeball-grabbing stat line looked like this:

.301/.382/.506/.888 slash line
222 HR, 183 SB
46.5 Baseball Reference WAR
48.7 FanGraphs WAR

• How stellar were those numbers? For one thing, Wright had more bWAR, through 10 seasons, than 20 current Hall of Fame position players, whose careers began in the expansion era (1961-present), had at the same point.

• Also, only six retired third basemen from that era were ahead of him on the WAR leaderboard through their first 10 seasons. All six are in the Hall of Fame: Wade Boggs, Mike Schmidt, Ron Santo, George Brett, Chipper Jones and Scott Rolen.


• And let’s not underestimate Wright’s combo of power and speed. A mere four players from that era — at any position — rolled up that many homers, steals and wins above replacement in their first 10 seasons. How about this foursome: Mike Trout, Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds and … David Wright.

• Finally, how many players, whose careers began in that era, had that many wins above replacement, that many homers, that many steals and that good a slash line after 10 seasons? It’s only two, believe it or not: David Wright … and Mike Trout.

But let’s keep going, because you should know how Wright’s full career stacks up against the greatest third basemen of all time.

Wright had eight seasons with an OPS+ of 124 or better. So how many third basemen in history had that many seasons that were that much better than league average (with at least 475 plate appearances)? Well, only three finished their careers with more than eight of those seasons: Schmidt (11), Eddie Mathews (11) and Brett (10). Plus there were four others, besides Wright, with exactly eight: Chipper, Boggs, Santo and Rolen. And all seven of those third basemen have plaques in Cooperstown.

Wright had five seasons with at least 40 doubles and 20 homers. So is that good? It seems good. In fact, it’s the most by any third baseman in history — two more than anyone else who ever played there.

He once spun off four straight seasons (2005-08) with at least 70 extra-base hits. That’s monster production at third base, friends. The only third baseman in history with a longer streak is Nolan Arenado, with five — all in his Rockies years, with some minor assistance from Coors Field. But back at sea level, the only other third baseman who even had four in a row was some guy named … Mike Schmidt.

And Wright had six four-win seasons* (or better) in nine years (2005-13). OK, that’s not a record. But it’s more than Manny Machado has as a third baseman (five), just to pick a name that got my attention. And it’s a reminder of Wright’s consistent excellence in those first nine full seasons of his career.

(*via Baseball Reference WAR)

So about that Kirby Puckett comp … David Wright isn’t the first player to find himself in that if Kirby Puckett is a Hall of Famer discussion. I’m sure he won’t be the last.

Not that Puckett’s first-ballot election in 2001 was any sort of blight on the process. But because the Twins’ center fielder awoke one day in spring training 1996 and found himself essentially blind in one eye, his career was way too short (12 seasons). So that opens the door for comparisons to other players whose Cooperstown path was also rudely interrupted by health issues beyond their control.

All right, so how does Wright stack up against Puckett? Incredibly well … if you choose the right metrics. Such as these, for instance:

STAT WRIGHT PUCKETT
fWAR
51.2
44.9
bWAR
49.2
51.2
HR
242
207
SB
196
134
OPS+
133
124
wRC+
133
122
WPA
30.2
27.0
JAWS*
44.3
44.4
WAR7**
39.5
37.6
(*The Jay Jaffe metric that factors in both career WAR and seven-year peak WAR.)

( **A way to measure a player’s peak, via combined WAR over his seven best seasons.)

So by all those measures, does David Wright look like a Hall of Famer if Kirby Puckett is a Hall of Famer? I’ll say. Except …

We left some really important other factors out of that chart! Let’s discuss.

• For one thing, volume does (and should) still matter. So it’s not exactly irrelevant that Puckett played nearly 200 more games (1,783) than Wright (1,585).

• It’s even more relevant that Puckett topped 2,300 hits, but Wright never made it to 1,800 (finishing with 1,777). It has been nearly 50 years since the writers elected any player with fewer than 2,000 hits (Ralph Kiner in 1975).

• And then there are all those bonus points Puckett rolled up … by winning two World Series (to Wright’s zero) … by winning a batting title (while Wright never led his league in any traditional stat) … by winning six Gold Glove awards (to Wright’s two) … and by making 10 All-Star teams (to Wright’s seven) … among other things.


So once you factor all that in, is David Wright a Hall of Famer? I can hear the Andruw Jones Fan Club howling from here. If we based our Hall of Fame votes just on how everybody’s career looked through age 30, we’d have a very different Hall than we have now. So we’re traveling down a rocky road if we start selectively deciding to overlook lack of longevity in some players but not others. Trust me. I get that.


But there’s also this: Hall of Fame voting in 2024 should never be confused with Hall of Fame voting in, say, 1954. Voters are different and better informed, with more tools to make these votes than ever. But players are also different — which means those magic numbers that used to drive these votes don’t look so magical anymore.

This is not a David Wright is a Hall of Famer and anybody who doesn’t think so is an idiot kind of column. This is a column that says I’ve seen what can happen when we allow ourselves time to give the best players of their era the long, thoughtful look they deserve. Ask Edgar Martinez. Ask Tim Raines. Ask Larry Walker.

And now it’s David Wright’s turn. He’s earned that long look. So let’s hope he gets it. All it will take is for a couple of dozen voters (at least) to do the Wright thing.


https://theathletic.com/5100592/2023/11 ... ed-article

[metsmarathon]

i am ok with this!

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Jason Stark is a national treasure. That's an eye opening piece

[Edgy MD]

A real enemy here is that the the Hall does a lot more pruning on the ballot than they used to, before it even gets to the BBWAA.

It used to be that almost anybody who got their minimum years in made it onto the ballot. They'd trim a few guys who were backup catchers or mopup relievers their whole careers, but a whole bunch of Matlacks and DeShaieses and Garners who had no chance were still put on the ballot and got their balloons for participating. Now, there's virtually no name on the ballot without a conceivable real argument for inclusion. No names appear that would actually create a broad controversy if they actually got in. (Ok, Brandon Phillips might, but Victor Martinez was better than you might think!)

A voter who endeavors to be selective and particular, confronted with a ballot of 50 names, and given a maximum of 10 votes, might check six or seven names, maybe 8 in a good year. But the same voter, confronted with a ballot of thirty names, is more likely to check four boxes, to satisfy his or her sense of high standards, without giving a good thought to the idea that those high standards have already been met with a much more selective ballot.

If you want more guys getting past their first pass at the ballot (and by the mighty name of Lou Whitaker, I do), let more guys get on the ballot. Be a big-ballot person.

[metirish]

So far only one voter out of five posted (Rubin) voted for Wright, how many votes would he need to reach that 5%?

[Edgy MD]

You don't really know, because you don't know how many voters will turn in their ballots.

Last year, I think, about 389 ballots were turned in, which suggests a guy would need about 20 votes to survive, assuming a similar ballot total for this year.

[metirish]

Ah ok, thanks

[batmagadanleadoff]

It seems to me, that Stark is saying that Wright should not be a one and doner because of how good Wright's first 10 seasons were. Which they were.

So what?

He's clearly not a HOFer and if not, who cares when he's voted off the ballot? Either he's a HOFer or he isn't. What is this shit with his first 10 years? Write a column about how Wright was on a can't miss HOF trajectory after 10 years but then injuries happened, derailing his HOF chances. Not that he should get ballot votes. Either he's a HOFer or he isn't. And he isn't. Would he deserve to be enshrined if he retired after 10 seasons.

No.

I find this piece to be annoying. What? Your first year on the ballot, you get votes based only on your first 10 seasons?

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Well the Hall may have made a mistake when they let Puckett in because of his eye condition, Wright's broken back wasn't as heart-rendering but ended his career at the same point.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Yeah, Puckett was a big mistake. Also, there's a not too short list of players who looked liked, after their first 10 seasons, would one day be locks for the HOF, including one-time Met Johan Santana. Dale Murphy, famously so. I could go on.

[Bob Alpacadaca]

The All One-and-Done team. By and large, when my good friends in the Baseball Writers’ Association of America vote, we’re mostly not the knuckleheads you undoubtedly think we are. We get lots and lots and lots of these votes right. No kidding.

But we have whiffed on some really good players, who deserved better than to get booted off the ballot after one appearance because they didn’t get at least 5 percent of the vote. Here’s a partial list of our worst one-and-dones, just from the last decade — and I didn’t even include any obvious PED luminaries:

2022 — Mark Teixeira
2019 — Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt
2018 — Johan Santana, Johnny Damon
2017 — Jorge Posada
2016 — Jim Edmonds
2015 — Carlos Delgado
2014 — Kenny Rogers, Luis Gonzalez
2013 — Kenny Lofton, David Wells


In our defense, we were dealing with massively overstuffed ballots in many of those years and not enough slots to include everybody. Still, every player on that list except Posada (42.7 WAR) and Delgado (44.4) finished his career with at least 50 wins above replacement (the Baseball Reference version). Edmonds and Lofton were in the 60s. So it’s hard to believe that not one of them collected enough votes to get even a second look.

He makes an interesting point. In a perfect world, a player being a hall of famer or not could be determined in one year. But for better or worse, that's just not how it works with the Baseball Hall and many players build steadily until they get in, or linger in the 30 or 40 percent range for a decade and finally fall off. I'd be curious how many players are voted in during their last two years of eligibility. Kenny Lofton and Jim Edmonds in particular could have had a slow build.

[batmagadanleadoff]

He makes an interesting point. In a perfect world, a player being a hall of famer or not could be determined in one year. But for better or worse, that's just not how it works with the Baseball Hall and many players build steadily until they get in....

This is true, but for borderline cases. Wright is not even that. He's just not a HOFer. And he's not borderline close. Unless Stark wants to start a HOF for a player's first 10 seasons, only.

Gray ink test - Wright -88; Average HOFer - 144
HOF monitor -Wright - 74; Average HOFer - 100
HOF standards - Wright 36; Average HOFer - 50
career bWAR - Wright - 49.2; Average HOF 3b - 68.4
JAWS Wright - 44.3; Average HOF 3b - 55.8

[Benjamin Grimm]

Sandy Koufax got in based on ten years.

If Koufax had followed 1966 with three or four mediocre years, would that have damaged his chances?

Or (and this is what I'm thinking) is it that Koufax's ten years were a lot better than Wright's ten years?