"Scary Rotation"

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Edgy MD
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"Scary Rotation"

Post by Edgy MD » Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:13 pm

In another thread, a couple of posters labeled the projected rotation for the Mets as "scary." While nothing indeed goes as projected, I decided to measure it up against division rivals, to see what illumiates. The projections below are from FanGraphs.
AtlantaGSIPfWARPhiladelphiaGSIPfWARMiamiGSIPfWARNew YorkGSIPfWARWashingtonGSIPfWAR
Guy #1Spencer Strider311854.9Zack Wheeler322004.8Jesús Luzardo311813.3Kodai Senga311873.3Josiah Gray311771.1
Guy #2Max Fried311853.5Aaron Nola321984.3Braxton Garrett291642.6José Quintana291681.7Patrick Corbin291661.3
Guy #3Charlie Morton291652.2Taijuan Walker311751.6Edward Cabrera261391.8Luis Severino 261441.6MacKenzie Gore281522.2
Guy #4Chris Sale261412.8Ranger Suárez281552.3Trevor Rogers 241311.8Sean Manaea241341.9Jake Irvin231241.1
Guy #5Bryce Elder241381.2Cristopher Sánchez231261.9Eury Pérez241322.1Adrian Houser231220.9Trevor Williams191020.7
Guy #6Huascar Ynoa 6360.6Mick Abel6370.2Max Meyer 191101.4David Peterson 11601.0Jackson Rutledge16910.5
Guy #7AJ Smith-Shawver5270.3Nick Nelson5270.3Ryan Weathers3170.2Tylor Megill10520.5Joan Adon8440.5
Guy #8Hurston Waldrep5280.3David Parkinson290.1Patrick Monteverde290.1Joey Lucchesi5270.3Cade Cavalli 3180.3
Guy #9Dylan Dodd3180.1Noah Skirrow290.0Bryan Hoeing290.1José Butto290.1Mitchell Parker3180.1
Guy #10Ian Anderson290.1Griff McGarry290.0Sixto Sánchez290.2Mike Vasil290.1DJ Herz290.1
Total16293216.0Total16394515.5Total16290113.6Total16391211.4Total1629017.9

Atlanta is a terrfic team, top to bottom and side to side. They would be terrific even if they didn't have a rotation that is the class of the division. Alas, however, they do, so a few things are going to have to go sideways for them not to win and win big. Charlie Morton could disappear at any time, but it'll take more than that to sidetrack them.

Philadelphia isn't in a particularly good team, but if the two guys at the top of the rotation bang away like FanGraphs thinks they should, they'll win a lot of games and be a post-season threat to anybody. These projections are largely based on playing out perhaps hundreds of season scenarios and publishing the average, so it takes a lot of confidence to predict Zach Wheeler will reach 200 innings — a figure they list for almost nobody. You'd figure that in 20% of the scenarios, he gets catastrophically injured, so he's pitching like 240 innings the rest of the time.

Miami is a particularly bad team. Their rotation — at least according to these measures — looks perfectly respectable and stronger than ours, but the team has almost no offense beyond Jazz Chisolm, Jr.

The Mets' key seems to be getting more innings out of the top of their rotation than FanGraphs is willing to predict, but the team's kid-gloving of Kodai Senga last season along with José Quintana's injury leave them bearish. It's a lot to ask Quintana to give them 200 innings of the same sort of work he turned in at the end of 2023, but that may be what they'll need.

Washington looks like a washout. They're the kind of team that doesn't know if they want the Trevor Williamses of the world to hang in there, or to lose their spot to someone else. It'll be a long hot summer in DC, but the fans will always have 2019.

Trades, injuries, disgusing childhood illnesss, and sudden rapid leaps forward from obscure names still have yet to play out, so this is merely a frame of the movie, if not the most encouraging of frames.

The Mets also seem to be the strongest in the 6-through-8 slots. Part of that is the greater number of starts expected to go to those guys, but part of it is simply projecting stronger there. So when guys start going down, this thread is worth revisiting.

Also, Spencer Strider seems like a dickhead.
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metirish
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Re: "Scary Rotation"

Post by metirish » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:28 pm

Good stuff, agree , we need the rotation to do something it's probably not capable of doing.
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Benjamin Grimm
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Re: "Scary Rotation"

Post by Benjamin Grimm » Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:43 pm

These days 200 innings seems astronomical.
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whippoorwill
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Re: "Scary Rotation"

Post by whippoorwill » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:09 pm

Scary? The Mets’ staff?

You mean like hoping that chili doesn’t come back to haunt you when you’re on the freeway scary?
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Lefty Specialist
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Re: "Scary Rotation"

Post by Lefty Specialist » Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:32 pm

That rotation is scarier than a 7-11 burrito. If this is it (and in fairness it may not be) it is going to be a very long summer in Flushing.
Even duct tape can't fix stupid. But it can sure muffle the sound.
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