The Verlander Vest

[A Boy Named Seo]

The plans and fortunes of the Mets in 2024 and 2025 depend greatly on the output of the stubble-faced, dimple-chinned right-hander, once again the face and ace of the Astros (sorry, lil Altuve).

As you might recall, the Mets are forking over $20.78MM (for tax purposes) to have JV pitch for Houston this year, and IF his option vests (a massive, strategy-changing if), the Mets will owe him an additional $17.5MM in 2025, which severely dampens the "bridge" strategy they've been working so hard to enact. You know the one - employ guys on relatively inexpensive one-year contracts like Harrison Bader and Luis Severino this year and drop under the tax threshold ahead of the '25 season, "resetting" their status as repeat tax offenders and relieving them of the 110% tax they now pay on salaries. That's the reason they don't even flirt with a guy like Blake Snell. Who would pay over $60MM for a season of Snell? No one would.

So the Verlander Vest? What is it?

140 innings.

If he hits that mark in 2024, the Mets are on the hook again in '25. If he falls short of that, they have $17.5MM "extra" luxury tax-free dollars to allocate towards anything from Pete Alonso to my man-crush Roki Sasaki. The Mets currently have right at $138MM allocated to player salaries in 2025. The Verlander Vest would push that to $155.5MM. The luxury tax threshold in 2025 is $241MM. Every dollar counts.

After the NL Wild Card standings, the Vest Watch may be the race that attracts the second-most number of eyes this year.

2023 JV: 162 1/3 IP

--- threshold 140 IP ---

2024 JV: Starting the season on the IL with a sore right shoulder.

The Verlander Vest, now available at Cabela's:

[Edgy MD]

Earlier editions of the Verlander Vest are going for surprisingly inflated prices on EBay.

[A Boy Named Seo]

This fool really wears some vests, doesn't he?

[metirish]

Christ, what a brutal contract

[A Boy Named Seo]

Christ, what a brutal contract

It really is. The other day I spent way too much time trying to figure out how to re-sign free agent Pete for '25 and beyond and also fill out the rotation. It gets really challenging to stay under the tax if Verlander's $17 mils is still there.

[Edgy MD]

The best way to beat the tax is to advocate for its elimination.

Down with the tax!

[MFS62]

No taxation without representation.
And I want Excel Sports Management representing me.
Later

[whippoorwill]

Earlier editions of the Verlander Vest are going for surprisingly inflated prices on EBay.

Are those the Mets Dancers?

[Edgy MD]

That would be sweet.

And just as I'm typing, news spills over my wire that Justin Verlander will start the 2024 season on the injured list.

[Frayed Knot]

Actually it spilled over the wire at 10:56 AM EDT via this thread.

[Edgy MD]

Your wire ain't my wire but I didn't follow the link to see the sore shoulder was leading to an IL assignment.

[A Boy Named Seo]

Take your time, Justin. Don't rush back, don't want to make anything worse now. Ramp up slowly. May sounds good, even better yet June.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This is from the article the Seo linked in the initial post of this thread:

Verlander’s timetable to recover will be worth keeping a close eye on not just for the potential roster ramifications and any contingency plans, however. He also has a vesting $35MM player option for the 2025 season that’ll kick in if he pitches 140 innings and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. Notably, as a condition of the trade sending Verlander from Queens to Houston, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5MM of that option’s value if it vests and if Verlander picks it up.

This means that 140 innings won't necessarily cause the contract to vest. Not if he has an injury at the end of the season that would make him miss the beginning of the 2025 season.

(I can't believe next year is 2025, by the way. I remember when 1989 turned to 1990 and it seemed like we were far in the future.)

[Edgy MD]

So, if Verlander doesn't hit the vesting threshold, but the Astros pick up the option voluntarily, are the Mets on the hook or off?

[A Boy Named Seo]

So, if Verlander doesn't hit the vesting threshold, but the Astros pick up the option voluntarily, are the Mets on the hook or off?

I don't believe the Astros have that option. It looks to be a player option that vests only if he hits 140 innings. If he does not meet that threshold, any team would have to negotiate for his 2025 services.*

*I am only like 81% sure of this

[nymr83]

Is Verlander going duck hunting? what the heck is that vest

[Edgy MD]

You can't meet the threshold until you meet the mesh-hold, amirite?

[nymr83]

I wish him the best of luck in pitching 139 innings this year.

[A Boy Named Seo]

So, if Verlander doesn't hit the vesting threshold, but the Astros pick up the option voluntarily, are the Mets on the hook or off?

Pertinent info from an Astros mailbag in the Athletic today (emphasis mine):

How does the potential of Verlander’s contract vesting for next season factor into any extension or trade deadline finances for the team? Surely the Mets covering some helps, but besides saving (owner Jim) Crane cash, what impacts on roster building? — Alex S.


First, Alex, there seemed to be some confusion on social media about Verlander’s 2025 option, so let’s clarify that. His contract contains a vesting option, which means Verlander must throw 140 innings in 2024 to trigger it. If he doesn’t reach 140 innings, he’ll be a free agent.

Verlander beginning the season on the injured list does not at all ensure he’ll miss the innings threshold. Last year, after spending the first month of the season on the injured list, Verlander made his regular-season debut on May 4 and still managed to throw 162 1/3 frames.

Astros officials are optimistic Verlander could miss even less time this season, so reaching 140 innings remains very attainable. If Verlander does it, Houston is on the hook for $17.5 million of his $35 million salary in 2025. The Mets will cover the other half.

[Benjamin Grimm]

SNY's website did the math, and they're reporting that Verlander would have to average 9.1 innings per start (and not miss any starts) for the remainder of the year in order for his contract to vest.

Good news for the Mets.