Walk-a-thons

[Frayed Knot]

2024 starter walk rates (not including game of Tues 5.21)

- Severino: 4.0 BB/9, a 48% increase over his career avg of 2.7

- Quintana: 3.5, a 30% increase over career avg of 2.7

- Manaea: 4.1, a 64% increase (2.5)

- Houser: 6.3, a 70% increase (3.7)


All of those career rates were also pretty much in line with their rates from recent seasons (2022-23)
so it's not like there was a trend line leading up towards higher walk rates for any of them.
Combined that's 87 BBs in 177 IP for the four starters.


Butto's rate has been right around 5.0 his whole career but that career also consists of 15 starts so
a small sample size.
Scott's is even smaller and with no history. Just two starts for Megill.

[MFS62]

If walk rates are up all around the league it could be that umps are more conscious of how they are being scored by the league by electric strike zone equipment. So they're calling a smaller (accurate) strike zone. And I have no stats that say this is the case.
If it is just the Mets pitchers, then it could be the catchers aren't as good at pitch framing.

It is something to be concerned about.
Later

[kcmets]

If it is just the Mets pitchers, then it could be the catchers aren't as good at pitch framing.

[metsmarathon]

at this point in the 2023 season, the walk rate for all of the MLB was 3.39 BB/9 with a 8.73 K/9

at this point in the 2024 season, the walk rate for all of the MLB is 3.23 BB/9 with a 8.49 K/9

as a team, the mets at this point in 2023 had a 3.78 BB/9 with a 8.46 K/9

as a team the mets in 2024 have a 4.38 - YIKES - BB/9 with a 8.93 K/9... that's 0.3 BB/9 worse than the next worst team the Rockies. that's pretty terrible.

other than the walks, our staff numbers look pretty great. very high strikeouts, lowest hr/9 and hr/fb rates in the league, best soft contact percentage. part of that is probably because we're throwing so many pitches out of the zone that the opposing batters just aren't getting good hits off them.

another curious stat, the relveance of which i'm uncertain of, is that our staff has one of the lowest contact rates on swings inside the zone - meaning we generate swing and miss on pitches in the strike zone more than nearly any other team. but our contact rate outside the zone is middle of the pack.

maybe we're just surprising hitters when we manage to throw a damn strike. who knows.

you mention pitch framing. i wonder if that could be it. i wonder if our catchers just don't put up a good target to begin with...?

[kcmets]

Is there a way to compare the walk rates of each catcher? I
guess that would be Alvarez, Nido and Navarez. Maybe someone
else, I can't go look right now.

[metsmarathon]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/team ... &year=2024

about 75% down the page you'll see team pitcher splits per catcher.

in 14 games pitched to alvarez, mets pitchers had a 2.14 ERA. that was earlier in the season. mets pitchers allowed 49 walks to 122 strikeouts, with a 3.87 BB/9 and a 9.72 K/9

in 24 games to narvaez, and 163 innings, mets pitchers have thrown 89 walks to 161 strikes, out of 727 plate appearances, with a 4.91 BB/9 and a 8.89 K/9

in 22 games to nido, and 163.1 innings, mets pitchers have allowed 75 walks to 153 strikeouts, out of 702 plate appearances, with a 4.14 BB/9 and a 8.43 K/9

Narvaez and Nido are definitely doing very different things back there, too, as with Narvaes, mets pitchers have hit 17 batters to Nido's 7 and alvarez' 4.

it's not ALL roses for Nido, as while he doesn't seem to call for, or frame, nearly as many walks, mets pitchers have allowed 22 homers with him behind to 8 with Narvaez. 8 with Alvarez, too. This is probably why Nido sees his pitchers have a 4.90 ERA compared to 4.58 with Narvaez. hits 146/148 doubles 35/33 and triples 3/1 are otherwise nearly the same for each.

is it small sample size? aliens? swamp gas?
is nido's target too high, and narvaez' too low?

i have no fucking clue. but they're both doing different things, and getting very different results. and maybe, just maybe, they could each move a little more towards the other in their style and technique... and hopefully get the best of both worlds somehow. or maybe just a little bit less of the special kind of suck they bring to the yard. yeah, that would be nice, wouldn't it?

[Edgy MD]

That's my kind of analysis.

[metsmarathon]

last year, the walk rates weren't too far off; in fact narvaez was better than nido. 3.50 to 3.88 BB/9, and 3.92 for alvy.

the higher home run rate for nido was still there though, 1.75 HR/9 vs 1.25 for narvaez and a nice 1.06 for alvarez.

[kcmets]

I forgot to say thank you yesterday, mm. Is all that found on
regular Baseball-Reference or you use Stathead?

[metsmarathon]

That was all on bbref. I thought they might have it, and was very happy to find that it was not yet behind any pay walls.

[metsmarathon]

Now I’m very curious if there’s some data hiding out there on catcher glove locationing