McNeil and His Talent Level

[Cowtipper]

McNeil's spent most of his career playing way above his talent level.

[kcmets]

Start a thread on it, why bury your Mets wisdom in an IGT when
only a few will see it?

[Cowtipper]

I don't think that's necessary.

But he's never had great power or speed, his defense is solid but not stupendous, two of his .300 seasons were stunted (62 G in 2018, 60 G in 2020), and if you remove his 2022 campaign, his career average drops 10 points. He's just very Diaz-ian in that his one or two great seasons prop up the rest of his career.

[Edgy MD]

If you eliminate anybody's best full season in a statistical category, it's bound to have a similar impact on that statistic, assuming that it's a player with a similar career length.

[Cowtipper]

I guess it was necessary.

The contrast that is created when a player's best season is removed obviously depends on how good he was elsewhere in his career. For example, if you remove Bobby Thigpen's best season, you can see just how much he truly was playing above his talent level. Remove Mike Trout's best season and the overall change to his numbers won't be as stark, as he's been more consistently great throughout his career.

I just see McNeil as more naturally being a .270s-.280s hitter rather than the .300 hitter he's been a handful of times. At least with the Mets. I underestimated Daniel Murphy's potential when he was with New York then he went and exploded for a few years after leaving. So I wouldn't be surprised if McNeil finds the magic stroke again once he disappears from NY.

Such is SOP with this team.

I just posted a Fan Memory about Collin McHugh with a similar sentiment.

[Edgy MD]

The ideas that (a) his "true talent level" is below what is career record with New York represents it to be, and (b) you "wouldn't be surprised" to see him improve if he moves to another team, seem to inherently clash with one another.

[kcmets]

I just see McNeil as more naturally being a .270s-.280s hitter rather than the .300 hitter he's been a handful of times. At least with the Mets.

Are there other teams you see him doing better with?

Better how? 10-15 points in BA?

[batmagadanleadoff]

Daniel Murphy reinvented himself during the 2014-15 offseason. He became a different player, with a different swing and a different approach. Murphy's biggest inspiration? Justin Turner, who, a year earlier, underwent the exact same metamorphosis as soon as the Mets cut ties with him.

This is all so much more nuanced than simply reading the back of the baseball card. And we're surely missing most of the info we'd need to make these guesses.

[Cowtipper]

Players seem to have a knack for finding the missing link or the extra something whenever they leave New York.

Do I think McNeil has a missing link to be found? Well, I guess we'll have to wait for him to leave New York to see. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

But he's certainly not showing 'it,' whatever 'it' might be, with New York, and he hasn't done so for three of the past four years. He's hitting .278/.341/.391 since 2021, and that's including his 2022 campaign. That's weak.

McNeil was a no power,* low-speed hitter who batted .271 and .258 in his first two years at college. At this point in his career he's just being what's he's always been at his core.

*didn't hit a single homer per BBRef.

I think part of it is just getting out of New York. The city is not for everybody. The population of entire states is packed into a single city. If you're not prepared for it or don't have the mental strength to handle it, it can wreak havoc on you.

[batmagadanleadoff]

[Cowtipper]

Some like to think that if the Mets had held on to Murphy and Turner just a little bit longer, they would have eventually done with New York what they ended up doing elsewhere. But being in New York itself is what limited their ability to achieve what they did. Turner, a California kid, goes home to Los Angeles and turns it on. Murphy, a Florida kid, gets out of a city of 7 million for a city with 650,000 and turns it on.

McNeil and Turner have similar roots, both with links to Long Beach. Imagine if McNeil goes home to CA...he might pull a Turner there. Who knows.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Murphy was already doing it in NY. What do you think that playoff run of HR's in six straight games was all about? Murphy was en fuego by the last third of the season but nobody was noticing because Yoenis Cespedes and his Babe Ruth imitation thoroughly overshadowed whatever Murphy (and anybody else) was doing.

[Cowtipper]

That's a small sample size. Dale Long once hit home runs eight games in a row. When people get into grooves, they ride those grooves, but a groove is not indicative of talent level as a whole.

Murphy was very good with New York, but he ratcheted it up to another level for a couple years after leaving. But even then, he quickly fell back down to earth—his post Mets peak was really two seasons, 2016 and 2017.

[batmagadanleadoff]

He was 34 years old when he went into decline. With a very bad injury history. And lotsa wear and tear from playing second base. Are you saying that playing at MVP caliber lever for close to three seasons was fluky? That would've been some luck. Maybe his body began to betray him, like it eventually betrays everybody, to the point that he could no longer do what his mind was telling him he ought to be doing. He was already 30 years old when he seemed to have finally figured it out. That's very late in baseball years. I'd like to be 18 years old all over again with what I now know.

[Cowtipper]

2008-2015: 109 OPS+
2016-2017: 145 OPS+
2018-2020: 91 OPS+

Yes, very fluky.

[batmagadanleadoff]

2008-2015: 109 OPS+
2016-2017: 145 OPS+
2018-2020: 91 OPS+

Yes, very fluky.

And if I took a shotgun to Murphy's head right before the 2018 season, his OPS+ for that season would've been 0. That would've made his Nats peak even flukier.

[Cowtipper]

I guess it would have.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Murphy, a Florida kid, gets out of a city of 7 million for a city with 650,000 and turns it on.

Murphy overhauled his entire batting approach on Mets time. He didn't leave. He did this during the offseason just before the 2015 season, Murphy's last as a Met. Still, it took about half a season for Murph to finally settle in and execute like he wanted to and for the marked increase in production to show up.

[Edgy MD]

So, you're not buying the population thesis?

[batmagadanleadoff]

So, you're not buying the population thesis?

I generally don't go for lunatic talk.

[metsmarathon]

murphy had clearly figured something out and was on the cusp of putting it into play his last year as a met. in fact, if his babip hadn't been in the 270s instead of the 320-330 range it usually was at for his career, it might've been more noticeable. but his approach had changed and it was paying dividends.

to the extent that he saw with washington? no, that was a little unexpected. but he was becoming a better more powerful hitter in front of our eyes.

mcneil has good bat-to-ball skills. seems like a garbage approach. he's pulling the ball more than he used to, which seems like a terrible idea for him. his k rate is where it always been, he's just putting the ball into play poorly, and often. you'd think it's fixable, to an extent.

[Cowtipper]

I think my theory has merit.