Early Fire Sale Chatter

[Benjamin Grimm]

I think he's saying that there will be less demand for Alonso, because he may not be that much of an upgrade for most of the contending teams. So with less demand, comes less value in return.

If the Mets are sellers at the deadline, and they can get Pat Zachry, Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, and Dan Norman in return, then I guess they should do it. But if they get significantly less than that, which is very likely, I'd rather they kept Pete.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I think he's saying that there will be less demand for Alonso, because he may not be that much of an upgrade for most of the contending teams. So with less demand, comes less value in return.

That makes sense, and it's a point that's been well covered and understood.

[batmagadanleadoff]

If the Mets are sellers at the deadline, and they can get Pat Zachry, Steve Henderson, Doug Flynn, and Dan Norman in return, then I guess they should do it. But if they get significantly less than that, which is very likely, I'd rather they kept Pete.

Me too. Agreed.

[Edgy MD]

What it means:

ON EDIT: it seems that while typing out what it means, it was laid out far more briefly and effectively. Thanks for the assist.

Firstbasemen have a softer market at trading time, because few are needed, and almost everybody can play there, so the laws of supply and demand are not necessarily on the trading team's side.

The 1985 Cardinals needed a firstbaseman when Jack Clark got hurt down the stretch, but they got Cesar Cedeño who was mostly an outfielder and they stuck him there.

With Fred McGriff suddenly dealing with knee injuries and declining rapidly with the 2003 Dodgers, they went and got thirdbaseman Robin Ventura and stuck him there.

In both cases, laws of supply and demand worked in favor of the contending team looking to bulk up and against a team falling out of contention but having a firstbaseman to deal.

This is the opposite of the way leverage usually comes down at the deadline, when fading teams looking to deal tend to find a stronger market for most of their players.

That certainly doesn't mean a deal might not be available. The Yankees have the best record in the American League, and Anthony Rizzo is hitting pretty poorly at first and Giancarlo Stanton has only barely been carrying his weight at DH.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I think he's saying that there will be less demand for Alonso, because he may not be that much of an upgrade for most of the contending teams. So with less demand, comes less value in return.

That makes sense, and it's a point that's been well covered and understood.

On the other hand, 40% of the teams now make the playoffs. Which means that more than half of all teams will remain in the hunt for playoff spots. I doubt that more than half of the teams, the majority in other words, have a Keith Hernandez or a Glenn Davis or even a Lee May at first. There are only so many good first basemen out there and there certainly aren't enough for more than half the teams.

[Edgy MD]

As I wrote (and crossed out), there will nonetheless probably be somebody (like the Yankees) who will be looking to upgrade at first.

[batmagadanleadoff]

As I wrote (and crossed out), there will nonetheless probably be somebody (like the Yankees) who will be looking to upgrade at first.

I would imagine. That's my point.

[Benjamin Grimm]

It would be very ballsy to trade Alonso to the Yankees. That doesn't mean it won't happen; we just don't know yet if Cohen and Stearns are quite that ballsy.

(As we've seen in that college photo in the other thread, Alonso certainly is.)

[nymr83]

Yeah, it is pretty low risk to deal him to a team unlikely to be able to afford to re-sign him, but risking the firestorm of him signing an extension in the Bronx? That would be BALLSY

[Frayed Knot]

As I wrote (and crossed out), there will nonetheless probably be somebody (like the Yankees) who will be looking to upgrade at first.

The Yanx have (at least temporarily) benched the struggling Anthony Rizzo. The recently returned DJ LeMahieu (you have to hit the Caps key
four times to type that name!!) has been playing 1st the last few days but he's been hurt and/or non-productive himself over much of the last
season so it's not like he's a sure thing.

[Edgy MD]

But their deployment of him there helps underscore part of the point I'm making. You can bend almost anyone into a firstbaseman, but you have a lot more trouble bending a firstbaseman into something else, and that tips the market at that position in favor of the buying teams.

Also, don't trade anybody. Just go out and whoop the Marlins.

[Gwreck]

Also, don't trade anybody. Just go out and whoop the Marlins.

In the next 35 games (through July 22) the Mets have only two games against a team that currently has a winning record (Yankees).

If they can go 22-13 (or better) in those next 35 games, then selling might be off the table. That would bring them right up to .500.

[Edgy MD]

Let's go, Mets!

[Frayed Knot]

Also, don't trade anybody. Just go out and whoop the Marlins.

In the next 35 games (through July 22) the Mets have only two games against a team that currently has a winning record (Yankees).

If they can go 22-13 (or better) in those next 35 games, then selling might be off the table. That would bring them right up to .500.

I also remember someone here complaining during the losing stretch a few weeks back that we hadn't yet played the Marlins.
Well now we have (1-3).

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

Martino has an interesting column about what we'd get in trading blitz for our best pieces. Nutshell - probably not that much.

https://sny.tv/articles/trade-deadline- ... d-martinez

The consensus among rival executives and evaluators is that the Mets’ most valuable trade chip, by far, is their starting pitcher on Thursday, Luis Severino.

“Severino gets you an average prospect,” said one high-ranking American League executive.

Of the players on expiring contracts who the Mets could sell, Severino stands out in his appeal to other teams.

Others, like Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino and J.D. Martinez are expected to fetch only modest returns.

Alonso’s case divides baseball folks. Many note that the rental market for right-handed sluggers is not usually robust, hence the expectation of a smaller return for Martinez.

“For a rental, you don’t get much of anything for Alonso unless there is a bidding war,” said one evaluator.

Said another veteran executive, “Alonso maybe gets you someone’s 5-10 rated prospect. Not someone who is a stud.”

“I don’t agree with that,” a high-ranking A.L. executive said. “Pete could be the difference between making the playoffs or not. He is better than Arraez [Luis Arraez, for whom Miami acquired reliever Woo-Suk Go and three prospects from an aggressive Padres team].”

If the first two quotes are correct, it would make more sense for the Mets to hold Alonso until he reaches free agency at the end of the season. Why put a fan base through a traumatic trade just to receive a minor leaguer who might or might not turn into a big leaguer?

But if the third executive is correct, and teams view Alonso as a difference-maker, the Mets will have to consider it. It will be up to president of baseball operations David Stearns and his group to gauge his value and proceed accordingly.

As of this morning, the Mets are 3 games back for the last wildcard - with five teams ahead of them. Of the teams that are in, the Giants are 34-35 and the Cardinals are 33-34. If the team can put together a modest run and get back to .500, it can be right in the middle of this. The team is seven games under this morning. Possible? Some of the teams ahead of the Mets don't have a history of being buyers, like the Pirates. Is it is better to stay in the hunt or sell for what executives think would be an unimpressive haul?

[Benjamin Grimm]

I definitely prefer them not to sell.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

I definitely prefer them not to sell.

I'm with you!

[Centerfield]

I'm with you being with him!

Obviously we have to wait and see on the fruits from last summer, but I feel like we've seen a few sell-offs in recent history and don't really have much of anything to show for any of them. Maybe Drew Smith.

If it's a soft market, just keep him and take the compensation if he walks.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I do have hopes for the guys they got for Scherzer and Verlander. But the vibe I'm getting is that the Mets may get a blue-chip prospect for Severino, but not likely for anyone else. So keep these guys. Let's win as many games as possible and hope things fall into place.

[Gwreck]

I feel like we've seen a few sell-offs in recent history and don't really have much of anything to show for any of them. Maybe Drew Smith.

The Mets had true sell-offs in 2003, 2011, 2017, and 2023. The problem was that they didn’t have a lot of great players to sell in those seasons:

2003: Alomar, Burnitz, Benitez
2011: Beltran (and they didn’t trade Reyes)
2017: Granderson, Duda, Walker, Bruce, Addison Reed
2023: Scherzer, Verlander, Robertson, Canha, Pham

When they did have a great player to trade (eg. Carlos Beltran) they got back Zack Wheeler. Had they traded Reyes in 2011 or Wright in 2012, prospect hauls could also have been had.

Too early to judge results from the 2023 sell-off.

[Benjamin Grimm]

In 2017, the Mets traded five veteran players and got back one who would turn out to provide any measurable value:

July 27, 2017
New York Mets traded Lucas Duda to the Tampa Bay Rays for Drew Smith.

July 31, 2017
New York Mets traded Addison Reed to the Boston Red Sox for Jamie Callahan, Gerson Bautista and Stephen Nogosek.

August 9, 2017
New York Mets traded Jay Bruce to the Cleveland Indians for Ryder Ryan.

August 12, 2017
New York Mets traded Neil Walker to the Milwaukee Brewers for Eric Hanhold.

August 19, 2017
New York Mets traded Curtis Granderson to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Jacob Rhame.

[Edgy MD]

The Mets gained on the Nats, the Pirates, and Cubs — the three teams immediately in front of them in the standings — last night.

They pulled within a game and a half of the first two and two games of the last.

Destiny is within grasp. It's for the Mets to grab. It's for the rest of us to show them how.

[Gwreck]

In 2017, the Mets traded five veteran players and got back one who would turn out to provide any measurable value

This is what happens when you have players on expiring contracts who are on the wrong side of 30. Also, they perhaps waited too long to trade some of those players.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This is what happens when you have players on expiring contracts who are on the wrong side of 30.

Well, yeah, but that's not an uncommon situation. I'm belatedly realizing that these types of trades, perhaps more often than not, are more about short-term salary relief than about building for the future.

Steve Cohen shouldn't be worried about short-term salary relief. Trading Scherzer and Verlander was one of those somewhat rare chances to actually get top prospects. Trading Mark Canha and Tommy Pham didn't really do that.

[Edgy MD]

Trading and Scherzer and Verlander was very much the opposite of salary relief. They ate a lot of that salary and still have a lot of munching to do.