September

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Edgy MD
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Re: September

Post by Edgy MD » Thu Sep 19, 2024 11:12 am

Well, that certainly doesn't look right.

The Mets have announced their intent to use Severino/Peterson/Manaea in the Braves series, and the day off before the series allows them to skip Quintana to do just that, but that plan was announced before they opened their lead to 2.0 games over the Braves and Manaea revealed his September success to be reinforced over his last two starts. They may not find a need to go forward with that plan after all.

And if it does go down that way, Q likely at least gets the opener of the Brewers series instead of Megill. If we don't hear anything else, we're going to have to plug him in for that one tomorrow.

Things will start tightening up from day to day. I imagine it's a possibility that Quintana may get some bullpen time going forward, maybe as an option to take Alex Young's role.

The team could end up really having interesting options among Quintana, Megill, and Senga as a fourth starter if and when this post-season happens for them.
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Benjamin Grimm
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Re: September

Post by Benjamin Grimm » Thu Sep 19, 2024 11:23 am

It would be really nice if they had a fourth post-season game this time around. I was trying to remember who it would have been in 2022. Taijuan Walker, I assume.
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Re: September

Post by ashie62 » Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:00 pm

Ohtani 6-6
Two homers
Two stolen bases

10 rbis

Geez
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Re: September

Post by Frayed Knot » Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:14 pm

Last 20 games (including today's):

Mets: 16 - 4
PHI: 13 - 7
MIL: 12 - 8
SDP: 12 - 8
ATL: 10 - 10


I know it gets frustrating when we see the other contenders win and we lament winning our game but not gaining any ground, or gaining ground on just some of them. But think about how fans of those teams must feel: 'Man, we're playing really well but we can't shake those fuckin' Mets cuz they win every night!'
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Re: September

Post by Benjamin Grimm » Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:17 pm

And getting one game closer to the end of the season without losing ground does bring you a little bit closer to clinching a playoff spot.
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Re: September

Post by Edgy MD » Thu Sep 19, 2024 10:33 pm

The Brewers have reinserted platinum-selling country recording artist Colin Rea into their rotation. They are only three games behind the (now tied) Dodgers and Phillies for the league's best record, so it looks like they still will have motivation to come at the Mets hard in the last series. Ironically, that becomes more likely if the Mets continue to beat the Phils. But hey, expect nothing to be easy from now going forward.

While Ozzie Albies is supposedly all-systems go to return tomorrow, the Philles also expect a returning player, as Austin Hays has been rehabbing and expects to return from a rectent outing with a kidney infection, which apparently isn't always a euphemism for an STD.

DayDateOpp.StarterOpp. StarterScoreDiv. GBWC1 GBWC2 GBWC3 GB
Sunday1@CWSSean Manaea (L)Garrett Crochet (L)W, 2–08.04.04.01.0
Monday2vs. BOSLuís Severino (R)Brayan Bello (R)W, 4–17.54.03.00.5
Tuesday3vs. BOSDavid Peterson (L)Kutter Crawford (R)W, 7–27.53.53.00.5
Wednesday4vs. BOSTylor Megill (R)Tanner Houck (R)W, 8–37.53.53.00.5
Thursday58.03.02.50.0
Friday6vs. CINSean Manaea (L)Brandon Williamson (L)W, 6–48.03.01.50.0
Saturday7vs. CINJosé Quintana (L)Jakob Junis (R)W, 4-07.02.00.5+1.0
Sunday8vs. CINLuís Severino (R)Julian Aguilar (R)L, 3-17.02.01.50.0
SQUEAKYBUTTTIME🐭( | )
Monday9@TORTylor Megill (R)Ryan Burr (R)W, 3-27.01.51.0+1.0
Tuesday10@TORDavid Peterson (L)Chris Bassitt (R)L, 6-28.02.52.00.0
Wednesday11@TORSean Manaea (L)Bowden Francis (R)W, 6-28.02.01.5+1.0
Thursday128.02.01.5+1.0
Friday13@PHIJosé Quintana (L)Aaron Nola (R)W, 11-37.01.51.0+1.0
Saturday14@PHILuís Severino (R)Kolby Allard (L)L, 2-18.02.51.00.0
Sunday15@PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)L, 6-49.03.52.00.0
Monday16vs. WASSean Manaea (L)Jake Irvin (R)W, 2-18.03.51.0+1.0
Tuesday17vs. WASTylor Megill (R)Mitchell Parker (L)W, 10-18.02.00.0+2.0
Wednesday18vs. WASJosé Quintana (L)DJ Herz (L)W, 10-07.02.50.0+2.0
Thursday19vs. PHILuís Severino (R)Taijuan Walker (R)W, 10-66.02.00.0+2.0
Friday20vs. PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)
Saturday21vs. PHISean Manaea (L)Ranger Suarez (L)
Sunday22vs. PHITylor Megill (R)Zach Wheeler (R)
Monday23
Tuesday24@ATLLuís Severino (R)Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
Wednesday25@ATLDavid Peterson (L)Chris Sale (L)
Thursday26@ATLSean Manaea (L)Charlie Morton (R)
Friday27@MILJosé Quintana (L)Aaron Civale (R)
Saturday28@MILTylor Megill (R)Frankie Montas (R)
Sunday29@MILLuís Severino (R)Freddy Peralta (R)
Monday30
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Re: September

Post by batmagadanleadoff » Fri Sep 20, 2024 12:59 am

Mets ESPN playoff odds are only 8% better than the Braves, even though they're two games up on the Braves with just nine games left to play.


Padres 87-66 (+2) (99.5%)
Mets 85-68 (--) (63.3%)
DBacks 85-68 (--) (82.0%)
Braves 83-70 (-2) (55.2%)

The DBacks are given an almost 20% better chance of making the playoffs than the Mets even though the two teams have identical records and the Mets hold the tiebreaker advantage over the DBacks.

Must be that looming head-to-head series with the Braves, right? (But the DBacks and Padres end their seasons playing each other). Or that the Mets finish the season with a tough schedule, at least on paper, playing three playoff contenders.
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Re: September

Post by ashie62 » Fri Sep 20, 2024 3:15 pm

I don't think I really trust these percentages. It feels as if they still use info from April when the Braves were healthy and Mets were losing often
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Re: September

Post by Benjamin Grimm » Fri Sep 20, 2024 3:35 pm

I look at the percentages on Baseball Reference every day, but I don't really trust them either. All I know for sure is that a week from now, after the series in Atlanta has concluded, we'll know a hell of a lot more than we do right now.
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Re: September

Post by Edgy MD » Fri Sep 20, 2024 4:51 pm

I kind of trust percentages, but I don't trust ESPN.
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Fman99
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Re: September

Post by Fman99 » Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:11 am

Up two games on ATL with eight to play. I don't know if there's more math to it but I'd suggest that this gives the Mets a magic number of 6 to clinch a wild card spot?
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Re: September

Post by batmagadanleadoff » Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:23 am

Fman99 wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:11 am Up two games on ATL with eight to play. I don't know if there's more math to it but I'd suggest that this gives the Mets a magic number of 6 to clinch a wild card spot?
Six if the Mets secure the tiebreaker over the Braves, otherwise seven.
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Re: September

Post by Fman99 » Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:58 am

Right, forgot about that.

I feel like the Mets could go 5-3 and lock this up, in these last eight games. If they win the right five that is. Split these last two versus Philly and then take 2 of 3 each in Atlanta and Milwaukee. If they do that then Atlanta only has to lose one other game and they'd be done (again, if my math is true).
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Re: September

Post by Fman99 » Sat Sep 21, 2024 12:02 pm

Or better yet they could just win their next four contests.

That would clinch the spot, because they'd pick up a minimum of two more games on ATL and they'd own the tiebreaker at that point.

OE: Had not thought about the Cubs, but they're currently 6.5 back with 7 to play, so they'd also be eliminated in that same scenario.
Last edited by Fman99 on Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: September

Post by Edgy MD » Sat Sep 21, 2024 2:15 pm

Yesterday's loss certainly wasn't without harm. Among other things, the Mets lost a share of the second Wild Card slot, bringing the need to TCB against the Braves more deeply into focus.

First order of business, of course, is winning today. If they are to chase the big prize, then they are likely to meet the Phils again.

DayDateOpp.StarterOpp. StarterScoreDiv. GBWC1 GBWC2 GBWC3 GB
Sunday1@CWSSean Manaea (L)Garrett Crochet (L)W, 2–08.04.04.01.0
Monday2vs. BOSLuís Severino (R)Brayan Bello (R)W, 4–17.54.03.00.5
Tuesday3vs. BOSDavid Peterson (L)Kutter Crawford (R)W, 7–27.53.53.00.5
Wednesday4vs. BOSTylor Megill (R)Tanner Houck (R)W, 8–37.53.53.00.5
Thursday58.03.02.50.0
Friday6vs. CINSean Manaea (L)Brandon Williamson (L)W, 6–48.03.01.50.0
Saturday7vs. CINJosé Quintana (L)Jakob Junis (R)W, 4-07.02.00.5+1.0
Sunday8vs. CINLuís Severino (R)Julian Aguilar (R)L, 3-17.02.01.50.0
SQUEAKYBUTTTIME🐭( | )
Monday9@TORTylor Megill (R)Ryan Burr (R)W, 3-27.01.51.0+1.0
Tuesday10@TORDavid Peterson (L)Chris Bassitt (R)L, 6-28.02.52.00.0
Wednesday11@TORSean Manaea (L)Bowden Francis (R)W, 6-28.02.01.5+1.0
Thursday128.02.01.5+1.0
Friday13@PHIJosé Quintana (L)Aaron Nola (R)W, 11-37.01.51.0+1.0
Saturday14@PHILuís Severino (R)Kolby Allard (L)L, 2-18.02.51.00.0
Sunday15@PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)L, 6-49.03.52.00.0
Monday16vs. WASSean Manaea (L)Jake Irvin (R)W, 2-18.03.51.0+1.0
Tuesday17vs. WASTylor Megill (R)Mitchell Parker (L)W, 10-18.02.00.0+2.0
Wednesday18vs. WASJosé Quintana (L)DJ Herz (L)W, 10-07.02.50.0+2.0
Thursday19vs. PHILuís Severino (R)Taijuan Walker (R)W, 10-66.02.00.0+2.0
Friday20vs. PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)L, 12-27.03.01.0+2.0
Saturday21vs. PHISean Manaea (L)Ranger Suarez (L)
Sunday22vs. PHITylor Megill (R)Zach Wheeler (R)
Monday23
Tuesday24@ATLLuís Severino (R)Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
Wednesday25@ATLDavid Peterson (L)Chris Sale (L)
Thursday26@ATLSean Manaea (L)Charlie Morton (R)
Friday27@MILJosé Quintana (L)Aaron Civale (R)
Saturday28@MILTylor Megill (R)Frankie Montas (R)
Sunday29@MILLuís Severino (R)Freddy Peralta (R)
Monday30
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Re: September

Post by batmagadanleadoff » Sun Sep 22, 2024 12:22 am

batmagadanleadoff wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:23 am
Fman99 wrote: Sat Sep 21, 2024 6:11 am Up two games on ATL with eight to play. I don't know if there's more math to it but I'd suggest that this gives the Mets a magic number of 6 to clinch a wild card spot?
Six if the Mets secure the tiebreaker over the Braves, otherwise seven.
This was technically incorrect: by the time the Mets could secure the tiebreaker over the Braves, the magic number would be lower than six.

The best and up-to-date way to phrase it is that as of this writing, the Mets magic number to clinch a playoff spot is six -- with seven games left to play. That's a good thing when your team's magic number is less than the number of games remaining.
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Re: September

Post by Edgy MD » Sun Sep 22, 2024 8:21 am

Final regular-season home came of the year today. Time to say good-bye to your 2024 Mets, hoping you get to say hello again.

Speaking of hope, the Mets close the book on a long slate of lefties, and hope Jesse Winker hasn't gotten too much rust.

Ozzie Albies returned for the Braves yesterday, and it's a good time remember that he was having a pretty bad season before he got hurt. Marcel Ozuna and a resurgent Matt Olson are the Soto and Judge of that suddenly otherwise-not-so-elite-lineup.

DayDateOpp.StarterOpp. StarterScoreDiv. GBWC1 GBWC2 GBWC3 GB
Sunday1@CWSSean Manaea (L)Garrett Crochet (L)W, 2–08.04.04.01.0
Monday2vs. BOSLuís Severino (R)Brayan Bello (R)W, 4–17.54.03.00.5
Tuesday3vs. BOSDavid Peterson (L)Kutter Crawford (R)W, 7–27.53.53.00.5
Wednesday4vs. BOSTylor Megill (R)Tanner Houck (R)W, 8–37.53.53.00.5
Thursday58.03.02.50.0
Friday6vs. CINSean Manaea (L)Brandon Williamson (L)W, 6–48.03.01.50.0
Saturday7vs. CINJosé Quintana (L)Jakob Junis (R)W, 4-07.02.00.5+1.0
Sunday8vs. CINLuís Severino (R)Julian Aguilar (R)L, 3-17.02.01.50.0
SQUEAKYBUTTTIME🐭( | )
Monday9@TORTylor Megill (R)Ryan Burr (R)W, 3-27.01.51.0+1.0
Tuesday10@TORDavid Peterson (L)Chris Bassitt (R)L, 6-28.02.52.00.0
Wednesday11@TORSean Manaea (L)Bowden Francis (R)W, 6-28.02.01.5+1.0
Thursday128.02.01.5+1.0
Friday13@PHIJosé Quintana (L)Aaron Nola (R)W, 11-37.01.51.0+1.0
Saturday14@PHILuís Severino (R)Kolby Allard (L)L, 2-18.02.51.00.0
Sunday15@PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)L, 6-49.03.52.00.0
Monday16vs. WASSean Manaea (L)Jake Irvin (R)W, 2-18.03.51.0+1.0
Tuesday17vs. WASTylor Megill (R)Mitchell Parker (L)W, 10-18.02.00.0+2.0
Wednesday18vs. WASJosé Quintana (L)DJ Herz (L)W, 10-07.02.50.0+2.0
Thursday19vs. PHILuís Severino (R)Taijuan Walker (R)W, 10-66.02.00.0+2.0
Friday20vs. PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)L, 12-27.03.01.0+2.0
Saturday21vs. PHISean Manaea (L)Ranger Suarez (L)W, 6-36.03.01.0+2.0
Sunday22vs. PHITylor Megill (R)Zach Wheeler (R)
Monday23
Tuesday24@ATLLuís Severino (R)Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
Wednesday25@ATLDavid Peterson (L)Chris Sale (L)
Thursday26@ATLSean Manaea (L)Charlie Morton (R)
Friday27@MILJosé Quintana (L)Aaron Civale (R)
Saturday28@MILTylor Megill (R)Frankie Montas (R)
Sunday29@MILLuís Severino (R)Freddy Peralta (R)
Monday30
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Edgy MD
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Re: September

Post by Edgy MD » Mon Sep 23, 2024 10:43 am

The Braves have announced intent to use their off day today to skip Charlie Morton in favor of Max Fried.

This is not as easy a decision as all that. While Fried represents a young (30) gun versus and old (40) one in Morton, he's not had that great a year. Morton has had some success against the Mets, although the Mets have gotten to him two out of the three times they've matched up in 2024.

The Mets have overall handled righties better than lefties, but that's kind of changed as the season has progressed. Probably the right move, but I like to see their hand forced instead of the Mets'.

Also, the Brewers have used the off day to push Freedy Peralta back a slot in the rotation, which seemingly takes him out of the conversation for the season's last day, presumably setting him up to be the post-season opener.

Closing the season against the Brewers, it will be the third team this month (by my count) featuring a Metly brother. Having previously faced the Reds and Alexis Diaz, we now go up against the Braves and the (injured) Ronald Acuña, Jr., and the Brewers and Trevor Megill. Rather than get with that program, all the Phillies managed to field is the spawn of Roger Clemens.

DayDateOpp.StarterOpp. StarterScoreDiv. GBWC1 GBWC2 GBWC3 GB
Sunday1@CWSSean Manaea (L)Garrett Crochet (L)W, 2–08.04.04.01.0
Monday2vs. BOSLuís Severino (R)Brayan Bello (R)W, 4–17.54.03.00.5
Tuesday3vs. BOSDavid Peterson (L)Kutter Crawford (R)W, 7–27.53.53.00.5
Wednesday4vs. BOSTylor Megill (R)Tanner Houck (R)W, 8–37.53.53.00.5
Thursday58.03.02.50.0
Friday6vs. CINSean Manaea (L)Brandon Williamson (L)W, 6–48.03.01.50.0
Saturday7vs. CINJosé Quintana (L)Jakob Junis (R)W, 4-07.02.00.5+1.0
Sunday8vs. CINLuís Severino (R)Julian Aguilar (R)L, 3-17.02.01.50.0
SQUEAKYBUMTIME🐭( | )
Monday9@TORTylor Megill (R)Ryan Burr (R)W, 3-27.01.51.0+1.0
Tuesday10@TORDavid Peterson (L)Chris Bassitt (R)L, 6-28.02.52.00.0
Wednesday11@TORSean Manaea (L)Bowden Francis (R)W, 6-28.02.01.5+1.0
Thursday128.02.01.5+1.0
Friday13@PHIJosé Quintana (L)Aaron Nola (R)W, 11-37.01.51.0+1.0
Saturday14@PHILuís Severino (R)Kolby Allard (L)L, 2-18.02.51.00.0
Sunday15@PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)L, 6-49.03.52.00.0
Monday16vs. WASSean Manaea (L)Jake Irvin (R)W, 2-18.03.51.0+1.0
Tuesday17vs. WASTylor Megill (R)Mitchell Parker (L)W, 10-18.02.00.0+2.0
Wednesday18vs. WASJosé Quintana (L)DJ Herz (L)W, 10-07.02.50.0+2.0
Thursday19vs. PHILuís Severino (R)Taijuan Walker (R)W, 10-66.02.00.0+2.0
Friday20vs. PHIDavid Peterson (L)Christopher Sánchez (L)L, 12-27.03.01.0+2.0
Saturday21vs. PHISean Manaea (L)Ranger Suarez (L)W, 6-36.03.01.0+2.0
Sunday22vs. PHITylor Megill (R)Zach Wheeler (R)W,2-15.03.00.0+2.0
Monday23
Tuesday24@ATLLuís Severino (R)Spencer Schwellenbach (R)
Wednesday25@ATLDavid Peterson (L)Chris Sale (L)
Thursday26@ATLSean Manaea (L)Max Fried (L)
Friday27@MILJosé Quintana (L)Colin Rea (R)
Saturday28@MILTylor Megill (R)Frankie Montas (R)
Sunday29@MILLuís Severino (R)Tobias Myers (R)
Monday30
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Re: September

Post by Benjamin Grimm » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:06 am

I'm pretty sure I got this right, but please correct me if you spot any mistakes.

These are the possible postseason alignments as of this morning:

Playoff SeedCurrent TeamOther Possibilities
N.L. Division Winner 1DodgersDodgers, Brewers, Padres
N.L. Division Winner 2PhilliesDodgers, Brewers, Padres, Mets
N.L. Division Winner 3BrewersPhillies, Dodgers, Padres, Mets
N.L. Wild Card 1PadresPhillies, Dodgers, Mets, Diamondbacks, Braves
N.L. Wild Card 2MetsPhillies, Padres, Diamondbacks, Braves
N.L. Wild Card 3DiamondbacksPadres, Mets, Braves
A.L. Division Winner 1YankeesGuardians, Orioles
A.L. Division Winner 2GuardiansAstros
A.L. Division Winner 3AstrosGuardians, Mariners
A.L. Wild Card 1OriolesYankees, Royals, Tigers, Twins
A.L. Wild Card 2RoyalsOrioles, Tigers, Twins, Mariners, Red Sox, Rays
A.L. Wild Card 3TigersOrioles, Royals, Twins, Mariners, Red Sox, Rays
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Re: September

Post by Fman99 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:18 am

Mets are 15-5 this month. That is stellar.
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Re: September

Post by ashie62 » Mon Sep 23, 2024 11:44 am

I believe I read the Mets are great shape with tiebreakers
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Re: September

Post by Benjamin Grimm » Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:05 pm

They have the advantage over the Padres and Diamondbacks. The tiebreaker between the Mets and the Braves will be determined this week.
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Re: September

Post by Centerfield » Mon Sep 23, 2024 1:32 pm

The Diamondback will miss Blake Snell. He pitched a gem yesterday against KC. They'll face Logan Webb, but the other two starters are nothing special. If the Mets stumble against the Braves, they'll need the DBacks to lose next weekend against San Diego.

Which means we need to make sure San Diego has something to play for, so let's hope they lose all 3 against the Dodgers this week.
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Re: September

Post by Gwreck » Mon Sep 23, 2024 1:40 pm

Benjamin Grimm wrote: Mon Sep 23, 2024 12:05 pm They have the advantage over the Padres and Diamondbacks. The tiebreaker between the Mets and the Braves will be determined this week.
The Mets would lose a tiebreaker to the Dodgers for the #4 seed. Granted, this would require Padres sweep of Dodgers, Arizona sweep of Padres, Rockies sweep of Dodgers, and Mets sweeps of Atlanta and Milwaukee, and Philly to win at least one game.

If all of the above happened and Philly lost out? The Mets would win the East and the #1 seed tiebreaker over San Diego.
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Re: September

Post by batmagadanleadoff » Mon Sep 23, 2024 2:16 pm

Also, Luis Torrens might be tomorrow's Mets scratch starter and pitch a perfect game.

It's possible.
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