ESPN odds updated with one day left in the regular season:
Braves >99.9%
Mets 52.1%
DBacks 47.9%
That's odd. The DBacks odds went up by 10% with their loss tonight to the Padres.
The tiebreaker favors the Mets -- but the DBacks play at home, for whatever that's worth.
The Odds are not so odd anymore.
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batmagadanleadoff
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Chad ochoseis
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Re: The Odds are not so odd anymore.
The Braves miss the playoffs if:
- they lose to the Royals, a playoff team, tomorrow and
- the Diamondbacks, a slumping but good team, win tomorrow and
- the Mets sweep them on Monday.
It's not a likely scenario, but I'd bet on it if you gave me 1000-1 odds.
- they lose to the Royals, a playoff team, tomorrow and
- the Diamondbacks, a slumping but good team, win tomorrow and
- the Mets sweep them on Monday.
It's not a likely scenario, but I'd bet on it if you gave me 1000-1 odds.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. - Richard Feynman
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batmagadanleadoff
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Re: The Odds are not so odd anymore.
Isn't it easier to just root for the DBacks to lose tomorrow? Then the Mets would have to win just once to clinch a spot. And they'd get three chances to win just that one game. Not that my rooting would have any effect on anything.Chad ochoseis wrote: ↑Sat Sep 28, 2024 10:59 pm The Braves miss the playoffs if:
- they lose to the Royals, a playoff team, tomorrow and
- the Diamondbacks, a slumping but good team, win tomorrow and
- the Mets sweep them on Monday.
It's not a likely scenario, but I'd bet on it if you gave me 1000-1 odds.
Last edited by batmagadanleadoff on Sat Sep 28, 2024 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Chad ochoseis
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Re: The Odds are not so odd anymore.
Oh, yeah. I'm a yuge Padres fan until tomorrow. I was pointing out the ridiculousness of the >99.9% probability for the Braves.
For them to miss the playoffs, they need 4 outcomes to go against them. If each game was purely 50-50, there would be a 6.25% chance of that happening. Each game isn't 50-50, of course, but they're not far enough from 50-50 to turn that 6.25% into < 0.1%.
For them to miss the playoffs, they need 4 outcomes to go against them. If each game was purely 50-50, there would be a 6.25% chance of that happening. Each game isn't 50-50, of course, but they're not far enough from 50-50 to turn that 6.25% into < 0.1%.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. - Richard Feynman
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batmagadanleadoff
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Re: The Odds are not so odd anymore.
I'd prefer to treat each game as a 50-50 coin flip. It's easier and not so far-fetched. Plus. I don't go for those junk-science narratives about some teams wanting it more than others or clutching up to meet the moment or teams having nothing left to play for -- that's all nonsense. Besides, ESPN odds and all the other odds are estimates, let's not forget. So let's treat them as ballpark figures instead of mathematical certainties. Perhaps very educated estimates, but still estimates. Which we all know anyways, but sometimes, tend to forget momentarily in the heat and emotion of the discussion.