2024 Presidential Election - Take II

[Edgy MD]

I can't pretend to know if polling techniques have grown more sophisticated to adjust to the way people actually communicate in contemporary times. Every time I visit Twitter, two of the first three tweets in my feed are some sort of fake push poll like DO YOU AGREE WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP THAT KNEELING SHOULD BE OUTLAWED, WHOOPI GOLDBERG SHOULD BE FIRED, AND CHILD MOLESTERS SHOULD BE EXECUTED YES/NO?

I certainly do suspect that polls haven't accurately captured the Swiftie Factor, though I can hardly pretend to know how meaningful that factor will be.

[Lefty Specialist]

I know Kamala thinks I'm rich because she asks me for money 17 times a day.

[Lefty Specialist]

Lewis Black talks about 'undecided voters'.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Elon Musk is offering a $1 million a day to sign his PAC petition. Is that legal?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/musk-petit ... questions/


This is creeping me out and I haven't been able to stop thinking about it since I learned about it a few days ago. Musk, in a round-a-bout way, is essentially paying swing-state voters that are likely to vote for the Hitler to register to vote. Every day, Musk is also paying a random person who signs up with his program one million dollars. I can't believe this is allowed to happen.

[MFS62]

Elon Musk is offering a $1 million a day to sign his PAC petition. Is that legal?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/musk-petit ... questions/


This is creeping me out and I haven't been able to stop thinking about it since I learned about it a few days ago. Musk, in a round-a-bout way, is essentially paying swing-state voters that are likely to vote for the Hitler to register to vote. Every day, Musk is also paying a random person who signs up with his program one million dollars. I can't believe this is allowed to happen.

I just saw something on MSNBC that cited the specific law this violates. The penalty is up to five years in prison.
I'd love to see the Marshalls show up at his door and arrest him.
Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Elon Musk is offering a $1 million a day to sign his PAC petition. Is that legal?

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/musk-petit ... questions/


This is creeping me out and I haven't been able to stop thinking about it since I learned about it a few days ago. Musk, in a round-a-bout way, is essentially paying swing-state voters that are likely to vote for the Hitler to register to vote. Every day, Musk is also paying a random person who signs up with his program one million dollars. I can't believe this is allowed to happen.

I just saw something on MSNBC that cited the specific law this violates. The penalty is up to five years in prison.
I'd love to see the Marshalls show up at his door and arrest him.

With this SCOTUS? Good luck with that. Besides, the damage is done anyways. Good fucking grief. You think Steve Cohen is rich? (He is). But one million dollars to Musk is like half a penny to regular folks.

[Lefty Specialist]

This is the thing about voting violations like this. The punishment is handed out long after the crime is committed.

It'd be funny if he gave a million to somebody who voted for Kamala.

[Lefty Specialist]

[MFS62]

Just made an appointment to have my septic tank cleaned. It will be on election day.
I hope that's the only shit we'll have to contend with that day.

Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Just made an appointment to have my septic tank cleaned. It will be on election day.
I hope that's the only shit we'll have to contend with that day.

It's gonna be a shitstorm of a shitshow no matter how the election is called. It'll be bad if Hitler wins and if Harris wins, it'll be bad with the losers causing mayhem and cheating and lying and stealing the election. (Notice that I didn't write "trying to steal the election").

[Centerfield]

I don't understand these odds swinging to Trump's favor. WTF can they be seeing that is bringing more voters to the Trump side.

I'm gonna die before election day.

[Edgy MD]

Two college students allegedly got kicked out of Vice President Harris' Pennsylvania rally last week after being called out by the candidate following their crying out that Jesus is Lord, and Christ is King.

I imagine there's more and/or less to the story than that and I haven't dug deeply, but it's certainly making a lot of impact in the state where it looks like things are going to be decided.

That and the disruption of everything in North Carolina, along with the false claims of the government's response, are some things that may or may be tilting odds. Those hurricanes hit some key swing states.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't understand these odds swinging to Trump's favor. WTF can they be seeing that is bringing more voters to the Trump side.

I'm gonna die before election day.

Well, the thing is, we don't know if the odds are based on any solid information.

I look at the 538 site (and others) more often than I should, given how inaccurate they've been in the past. But one site, maybe 538, maybe Washington Post, I'm not sure, has a section saying that if the polls are wrong the way they were in 2016, this will happen. And if they were wrong the way they were in 2020, then this will happen. And again for 2022.

They're basically saying that the polls will be wrong, but in a way that we don't yet know. And this is what the odds are based on. As I said, I can't help looking, but I have to remind myself that this means very little.

[MFS62]

Two college students allegedly got kicked out of Vice President Harris' Pennsylvania rally last week after being called out by the candidate following their crying out that Jesus is Lord, and Christ is King.

I imagine there's more and/or less to the story than that and I haven't dug deeply, but it's certainly making a lot of impact in the state where it looks like things are going to be decided.

The story I heard said they were yelling anti-abortion slogans.
Later

[Edgy MD]

Just writing how it's playing.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I don't understand these odds swinging to Trump's favor. WTF can they be seeing that is bringing more voters to the Trump side.

I'm gonna die before election day.

Well, the thing is, we don't know if the odds are based on any solid information.

I look at the 538 site (and others) more often than I should, given how inaccurate they've been in the past. But one site, maybe 538, maybe Washington Post, I'm not sure, has a section saying that if the polls are wrong the way they were in 2016, this will happen. And if they were wrong the way they were in 2020, then this will happen. And again for 2022.

They're basically saying that the polls will be wrong, but in a way that we don't yet know. And this is what the odds are based on. As I said, I can't help looking, but I have to remind myself that this means very little.

I read an article last week about the polls (I can't find it now to link to) that theorized that GOP voters are running up the poll tallies to make it appear as if the Hitler is doing much better than he actually is. The idea is to make it appear that the Hitler is sure to win so as to discourage the not-so motivated Dem voters from voting. Every little bit helps in a tight race. If true, I don't understand how this works. Don't the pollsters put together accurate, representative random samples? I would imagine that the sample would need to be comprised of disproportionately large numbers of GOP voters for this "trick" to work. But if the sample is overloaded with GOP voters, they woudn't need to "trick" the poll system. They would simply respond that they're voting for the Hitler, and the lopsided number of GOP voters responding would signal that the Hitler is ahead. Does anyone know anything about this?

[Benjamin Grimm]

That doesn't seem to add up. You can't "choose" to be polled.

It may be more likely that Republican pollsters are skewing the results. But that would only represent a fraction of the many polls out there.

[Edgy MD]

Well, if Nate Silver-era 538 was worth anything at all, it was worth something because they weighed more highly the results from more scientific polling done with more accurate representive samples.

But 538 is now Silverless and no longer independent, and Silver himself is less independent, so finding the highest scientific standard for which polls are held to the highest scientific standard is more elusive.

[MFS62]

That can play both ways. If the GOP voters see that Donny Diaper is going to win anyhow, they may think he doesn't need their vote. (He has said something like that at some of his rallies, that their vote wasn't needed).
I hope that happens.
Later

[Benjamin Grimm]

[MFS62]

My wife told me she wants a T-Shirt that says "Nobody cares about Arnold Palmer's dick".

Later

[metirish]

MAGA are really spinning this

[MFS62]

MAGA are really spinning this

Of course. It is probably the only real work he has ever done in his life.
Later

[metsmarathon]

oh wow, he filled some fry baskets. that's not "working fast food"

was he getting his ass chewed out by a high school dropout manager on a power trip for not filling the fry rack during a rush, while impatient drive through customers start circling the joint? was he lugging 50lb boxes of horsemeat discs out of the freezer to be thrown onto the greasy, dirty flattop to make greasy dirty burgers? was he manning the sprayer at the end of the day, trying to clean the grim off the nasty cookware and utensils before being allowed to return to his regular life? was he flattening boxes, lugging out trash, or cleaning the restorroms?

please. he had a photo opp with an apron. wowsers, i'm so impressed. he did so well on take your senile racist uncle to work day. next year, little donnie might get to be an engineer, or a veterinarian instead.

how the fuck is this moron still running near even with an actual competent highly qualified human being? what the fuck is wrong with us!?

[cal sharpie]

I find it hard to believe that the "conversation" that Kylie Jane Kremer had actually took place.