Who do you want back, and who should go?

[Cowtipper]

I'd like them to find a suitor for Edwin Diaz. He gave us five years of very up and down baseball. 2019 was awful, 2020 was great but stunted, 2021 was okay, 2022 was otherworldly, 2023 didn't happen, 2024 was pretty rough. Say adios to Diaz, as well.

That would leave the bullpen gutted, though they have the core of a great 'pen that their own farm system developed. Butto, Nunez, Megill could all be factors.

Bring back Maton, bring back Sean Reid-Foley, bring back Drew Smith, bring back Brooks Raley and you have:

Butto
Nunez
Megill
Maton
Raley
Reid-Foley
Smith
Lucchesi (see below)

That's just as reliable looking a group as the bullpen looked going into 2024, if not more. Butto and Nunez have a lot of upside. I'd say give Butto the closer's role. None of those guys, outside of Maton and Raley, are truly established major leaguers, but they all look good, no true gambles. I'd say the biggest gamble is SRF, but he was awesome during his brief run in 2024, so I'd say use him until he crumbles. The Mets started 2024 with a bunch of gambles: Diekman, Tonkin, Ramirez, Ottavino, Lopez. So that group might be even BETTER than what the Mets had in 2024, despite none of them being big names.

Say adios to Brazoban and Stanek.

Also, ditch Blackburn.

Bring Alex Young back on a minor league deal. Stash him away for when you need him. I was actually fairly impressed by him.

Now the Lucchesi conundrum. The Mets have done a lot to stall this guy's major league potential. He came up in 2018 and was solid in 2018 and 2019. The Mets have had him since 2021 and they've given him all of 95 1/3 innings since then, despite him having shown he could handle full seasons in the majors when he was with the Padres. I'd say either find a home for him on the big league roster or let him seek greener pastures elsewhere, but keeping him in limbo like they are isn't helping anybody. Maybe try putting HIM in the bullpen, too.

Grant Hartwig has been around a couple seasons, is 26, and hasn't proven to be too great. So maybe toss him to a team for a minor leaguer or two. You never know with minor leaguers. Acquiring minor leaguers is investing in the future.

They still have Ty Adcock, who'll become a minor league free agent soon, I believe. He was terrible at Triple-A (WHIP of nearly 2), so he can go.

Lastly, there's Eric Orze. Though he's 26, like Hartwig, he still hasn't had much of a chance to prove himself, and he tore it up at Triple-A. So, unlike Hartwig, I'd say keep an eye on Orze and don't ditch him.

[Lefty Specialist]

Raisin bread croutons!

Jose Quintana, free agent. Gone
Pete Alonso, free agent. Only if you can sign him for 5 years or less. He's not going to age well
Sean Manaea, likely will exercise player option and be a free agent. Yes, but 3 years max.
Luis Severino, free agent. No. Injury prone and we've seen the best. Even then he was declining by the end of the year.
J.D. Martinez, free agent. No
Harrison Bader, free agent. No, but I wouldn't be surprised if they signed him to a 1-year deal.
Phil Maton, free agent. Eh, maybe
Adam Ottavino, free agent. No
Ryne Stanek, free agent. Yes
Drew Smith, free agent. No. I'm done with him.
Jesse Winker, free agent Yes, but I think he'll sign elsewhere.

I also think McNeil needs to go- Mauricio and Acuna are knocking on the door. I would think Iglesias would want a full time job as well, which he wouldn't get here.

[metsmarathon]

I'd like them to find a suitor for Edwin Diaz. He gave us five years of very up and down baseball. 2019 was awful, 2020 was great but stunted, 2021 was okay, 2022 was otherworldly, 2023 didn't happen, 2024 was pretty rough. Say adios to Diaz, as well.

get outta here with that nonsense.

from june 1 on, he had a 2.42 ERA. dude was recovering from detaching his kneecap from it's associated tendon, which is a fairly traumatic injury. and he figured it out by the end of the year. he was practically our most dependable pitcher in october. and apparently, he can pitch two innings at a time now. like the rest of the mets season, 2024 was a roller coaster ride for diaz, with some big dips, sure, but i have confidence in him moving forward.

when we needed edwin the most, though, he came through more than anyone.

even the best closers in the game blow it sometimes. sometimes in the worst possible situations. ask cleveland and emmaunel clase. you really think they're thinking, 'nah, time to move on' over on the banks of the cuyahoga river?

look, i'm currently massively biased in favor of edwin diaz right now, but even if i were to put that aside, he's an anchor of a championship-caliber bullpen - the type of player you don't just cast aside and hope to replace with joey butto (no offense joey butto)

[Cowtipper]

He's damaged goods now.

The best closers blow games, but Edwin is far from being among the best closers, and he really hasn't been there since he left the Mariners, save for 2022.

Diaz blew seven saves this year. Fourth-most in the league. Awful.

The Cult of Diaz is insanely strong.

Most blown saves, 2019 to today:



That's insanely bad, considering he didn't even pitch in 2023, which would have inevitably made that number even worse.

See ya, Edwin!

[metsmarathon]

from 2019 to today, among all relievers who've thrown a total of 100ip or more, edwin diaz has the 6th best FIP at 2.64, and the 2nd best SIERA.

And that's with a garbage 2019 and a rollercoaster 2024.

I'll take it.

[metsmarathon]

Jose Quintana no
Pete Alonso yes, but within reason. meaning, less than freddy freeman money
Sean Manaea yes, 3 year deal
Luis Severino likely no, but QO
J.D. Martinez no
Harrison Bader sure, if he'll stay
Phil Maton yes
Adam Ottavino no
Ryne Stanek maybe, but i'd rather have maton
Drew Smith no
Jesse Winker maybe, but i'd rather have bader

i like the defensive upside of bader for the outfield. i like winker a lot, but i do worry that he'll wear thin over a full year. and if we get soto, we won't need either of 'em.

stanek pitches like his hair is on fire, but on the whole i trust maton more.

i'm also on team trade mcsquirrel. it's a bit of a risk since we have so many relatively unproven youngsters on infield, but if you can get something really useful back for him, i'd pull the trigger.

I'm very curious what'll happen with iglesias. he'll get a job somewhere if it isn't here, but i don't know that he gets the full time gig that he'd be looking for. maybe on a second division team. on this team, he can be a near-regular super utility player, and regular mentor for the kids. I hope he can see that as worth his while. I do think we got the best year out of him that he's ever going to give, but i like the approach he brings to the game.

[metirish]

Am I missing something with Maton ? I thought he was awful, yet many here like him

Genuine question

[Cowtipper]

Metrics are cute, but a closer's job is to save victories, and blowing the 4th-most saves is losing victories. All sorts of mental gymnastics can be made to make him look good, but when you distill it down, he is not a good closer. A closer's job is to close. If a save is blown, closing did not happen. Diaz has been among the most proficient at making sure closing does not happen. Which means he is bad at his job and should be removed from his job.

If FIP is what you're interested in, then make him a middle reliever. Not a closer.

[MFS62]

^ This.
Peripheral numbers are nice, but his job is to close.
I just don't know enough about who is out there to replace him.
Later

[Centerfield]

Metrics are cute, but a closer's job is to save victories, and blowing the 4th-most saves is losing victories. All sorts of mental gymnastics can be made to make him look good, but when you distill it down, he is not a good closer. A closer's job is to close. If a save is blown, closing did not happen. Diaz has been among the most proficient at making sure closing does not happen. Which means he is bad at his job and should be removed from his job.

If FIP is what you're interested in, then make him a middle reliever. Not a closer.

One of the most common things in baseball is thinking your closer is worse than he is. A few of those guys on that list of most blown saves are among the best relief pitchers in baseball for that era.

First of all, comparing Diaz to other closers means you're already comparing him to the best reliever from all the other teams. Thinking you can ship him out and replace his production with Nunez or Butto or Megill is just silly. Yes, it's possible, but not even close to likely. The only way to reasonably replicate his production is to bring in (or develop) another top reliever. Considering the Mets system has developed exactly one relief pitcher (Familia) in its entire history that can be compared to Diaz, it's not likely we'll get one out of nowhere for next year.

Diaz had a down year, without question. Among the top 30 save guys in MLB, Diaz had the fourth worst save percentage. But again, you are comparing him to the top 30 relief pitchers in MLB. I don't see how any one can reasonably conclude that plucking someone else out of the pen would reasonably lead to better results.

And looking at his peripherals, he's not bad. He's 15th in ERA among closers, 11th in WHIP. As you might expect from someone coming off of major surgery, he was more effective in the second half versus the first. (4.05 ERA vs. 3.00, 1.163 WHIP vs. 0.926).

Of course he has his faults. The main one being his complete inability to hold runners on. And you could argue that at 30 years old, this might be the time to sell high on Diaz. But I don't see that trading him off a down year with an opt out coming up (following 2025 season) helps you if you're trying to win in 2025.

[Cowtipper]

The Cult of Diaz is insanely strong.

For posterity.

[MFS62]

Considering the Mets system has developed exactly one relief pitcher (Familia) in its entire history that can be compared to Diaz,

Rick Aguillera has over 300 saves, just not for the Mets. But your point is valid. There haven't been many.
Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

Jeff Reardon, too. And the Mets didn't draft Jesse Orosco, but they definitely developed him. Randy Myers was very effective for a few years. Tug McGraw?

[ashie62]

I would prefer Jeff McNeil be traded but I seriously doubt that will happen

It's really hard to sign effective relievers so I would sigh Stanek and Maton. I'm not in love with Maton, but still

I'd like them to sign at least one of the starters, Severino would be my preference

The OF and DH types are flotsam and jetsom to be moved on from

[MFS62]

Jeff Reardon, too. And the Mets didn't draft Jesse Orosco, but they definitely developed him. Randy Myers was very effective for a few years. Tug McGraw?

And Isringhausen. (with Reardon and Aguilera)
Later

[Edgy MD]

Maton doesn't necessarily need to be signed. The Mets hold an option on him.

I disagree that it's really hard to sign effective relievers, so much as it is hard for relievers to maintain a consistent level of effectiveness from year to year — especially ones who have been around long enough to reach free agency.

But yeah, the Mets have developed some terrific relievers. They haven't always stuck around, but Jason Isringhausen had 300 saves.

It's just the nature of relieving that for many of the best arms, relieving is their second act. Sometimes, you don't catch on as a starter when you come up and transition to relieving with your next team. Isringhausen, Berenguer, and Dotel, among others fall into this category. The question is whether you're willing to stay with an arm through that transition. In a different world, the label on José Butto might be "failed starter," traded to the Cardinals this offseason for a player-to-be-named-later. Instead, they've taken a different tack, and he may well develop into somebody terrific out of the pen.

[Lefty Specialist]

Yeah, I'd stick with Butto. i like his arm. He has potential to be that bridge to the closer they need.

[Centerfield]

I wouldn't label Butto as a failed starter in any world.

7 starts, 38 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.132 WHIP.

I'd say he did pretty well starting, but needs to show it's sustainable.

[Edgy MD]

Those aren't the splits I have.

Role	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO9	SO/W
as Starter	2	6	.250	3.76	15	15	0	0	79.0	61	33	33	8	42	74	4	0	1	336	1.304	6.9	0.9	4.8	8.4	1.76
as Reliever	6	1	.857	2.63	25	0	5	3	41.0	22	12	12	3	21	48	1	1	1	160	1.049	4.8	0.7	4.6	10.5	2.29
Total	8	7	.533	3.375	40	15	5	3	120.0	83	45	45	11	63	122	5	1	2	496	1.216	6.2	0.8	4.7	9.2	1.94

But you're certainly right in that that isn't the profile of a failed starter, so much as a starter who hasn't caught on as yet. I withdraw the characterization. They could even return to trying to establish him in the rotation, but I'm almost certain that they won't.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I don't expect they will either, but I suppose it depends on how the roster shapes up over the next five months.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Putting aside the "closer" role, why is it that some pitchers are relievers instead of starters? Is it mainly a matter of talent -- that it takes more talent to be a starter than a reliever? Or is it mainly an issue of stamina --- and that relievers can't pitch as many innings as starters --- the way some track and field athletes can run a great 40 yard dash but would never be able to compete in a mile race, or a marathon?

[Edgy MD]

Stamina is certainly one characteristic that supposedly tracks you into the starter or relief role. Another is diversity of offerings. There are plenty of starters who made good with two pitches (Seaver [mostly], Ryan [totally], deGrom [mostly], and Glavine, among others), but when development staffs are sorting them out in the minors, if you have one or two effective pitches they typically send you to the bullpen, and if you have three or four, they tend let you start.

I tend to think, at the major league level, it's all luck. If there's an opening in the rotation, and you have one or two good starts, you get pigenholed as a starter. If there isn't, but there's a need in the bullpen, and you flourish there, good luck getting a chance to start.

If you've started all through the minors, but you have the bad luck to not succeed immediately as a starter, and whoever you were subbing for returns from his injury, and you hang around the pen and get a few big outs, great, but you might as well tattoo "CAN ONLY RELIEVE" onto your forehead.

It's unfortunate, but it's the nature of tracking.

[Centerfield]

Those aren't the splits I have.

Role	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	GF	SV	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	HBP	BK	WP	BF	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO9	SO/W
as Starter	2	6	.250	3.76	15	15	0	0	79.0	61	33	33	8	42	74	4	0	1	336	1.304	6.9	0.9	4.8	8.4	1.76
as Reliever	6	1	.857	2.63	25	0	5	3	41.0	22	12	12	3	21	48	1	1	1	160	1.049	4.8	0.7	4.6	10.5	2.29
Total	8	7	.533	3.375	40	15	5	3	120.0	83	45	45	11	63	122	5	1	2	496	1.216	6.2	0.8	4.7	9.2	1.94

But you're certainly right in that that isn't the profile of a failed starter, so much as a starter who hasn't caught on as yet. I withdraw the characterization. They could even return to trying to establish him in the rotation, but I'm almost certain that they won't.

The splits I posted were for 2024 only. Maybe your's are career numbers?

I'm not so convinced the Mets won't allow him to start. He was good out of the pen, but he doesn't recover fast, so his use is somewhat limited. Is there an opposite of a rubber arm guy? Also, starters are more valuable than relievers. Maybe in generations past Butto would now be pigeonholed as a reliever. I think this regime will explore how best to use him.

Assuming we sign two starters to pair with Peterson and Senga, I fully expect Butto to be in the mix for 5th Starter, along with Megill and whatever reclamation projects we pick up.

[Cowtipper]

With all the very good prospects coming up, I think we can find new homes for Jeff McNeil and Brett Baty will no real ill effect. Say adios to Bader, too, as he was absolutely useless offensively for what seemed like 2/3 of the season. Say adios to Martinez as he played like he was just in New York to collect another paycheck.

Alonso is a tough one. I'd hate to lose a guy who can contribute 34 home runs and 88 RBI in his prime, but he is going to want a fat contract and a long-term deal, so inevitably some team is going to be left holding the bag on him and I don't want it to be the Mets. He does not profile as the sort of guy who will be consistently useful at age 34-35-36. If the Mets can finagle a three, maybe four-year deal out of him, maybe give him a shot. But anything else and I'd say no. It would be tough to say goodbye, but he wouldn't be worth a long-term deal in the long run.

Bring back Iglesias and Taylor. Both excellent sparkplugs and great surprises. Ditch Vogelbach 2.0, DJ Stewart. Bring back Torrens—he faded offensively, but was still a good guy to have around. If Winker is okay being in a reserve role, I'd say bring him back, but if not, he should go.

Pablo Reyes, Eddy Alvarez and Joe Hudson are all still in the Mets system. I'd say bring back Reyes and Alvarez, but get rid of Hudson. He was too bad at Triple-A to legitimize keeping around.*

*EDIT: Apparently they all refused their minor league assignments and are now free agents. So, bring Alvarez and Reyes back, at least.

[MFS62]

Stamina is certainly one characteristic that supposedly tracks you into the starter or relief role. Another is diversity of offerings. There are plenty of starters who made good with two pitches (Seaver [mostly], Ryan [totally], deGrom [mostly], and Glavine, among others), but when development staffs are sorting them out in the minors, if you have one or two effective pitches they typically send you to the bullpen, and if you have three or four, they tend let you start.

This ^.
Later