Were we lucky in 2024?

[Centerfield]

I think so. Especially in terms of health. Off the top of my head. What went right vs. what went wrong.

What Went Right
Guys Who Performed Better than Expectations
Francisco Lindor
Mark Vientos
Jose Iglesias
Luisangel Acuna
Luis Torrens

Sean Manaea
Luis Severino
David Peterson
Jose Quintana
Dedniel Nunez
Jose Butto
Reed Garrett
Phil Maton


What Went Wrong
Guys Who Performed Worse Than Expectations
Pete Alonso
Jeff McNeil
Brandon Nimmo
JD Martinez
DJ Stewart
Brett Baty
Omar Narvaez

Kodai Senga
Adrian Houser
Brooks Raley
Adam Ottovino
Jake Diekman
Drew Smith
Ryne Stanek
Sean Reid Foley
Huascar Brazoban

Neutral
Guys Who Were About What We Expected
Francisco Alvarez
Harrison Bader
Starling Marte
Tyrone Taylor
Jesse Winker

Edwin Diaz
Paul Blackburn
Tylor Megill
Christian Scott


Included in the "below expectations" category are guys who got hurt. If you look at it in terms of numbers, it doesn't seem like we got that lucky. We have just as many guys who fell short of expectations as we did guys who exceeded them.

I think where our luck came in is (a) nobody except Senga missed significant time, (b) 4/5 of our starting rotation did better than expected, and (c) a lot of the lineup regulars who underwhelmed still put up decent numbers. In other words, even though they came in below career numbers, they didn't miss by a significant amount.

[Edgy MD]

Ronny Mauricio performed worse than expected/missed significant time also. For some of those, of course, it depends on who "we" are, but you're probably pretty close to the cross-section of expectations for most of those guys

I think any team that makes it as far as the Mets did must've enjoyed some luck, but props to organization for the meaningful parts of it that weren't luck, and for believing in the process and not quitting on the team by the end of May.

Props to the team for not quitting too.

[MFS62]

I expected Francisco Alvarez to perform much better than he did.
Definitely a What went Wrong example.

Later

[Centerfield]

Ronny Mauricio performed worse than expected/missed significant time also. For some of those, of course, it depends on who "we" are, but you're probably pretty close to the cross-section of expectations for most of those guys

I think any team that makes it as far as the Mets did must've enjoyed some luck, but props to organization for the meaningful parts of it that weren't luck, and for believing in the process and not quitting on the team by the end of May.

Props to the team for not quitting too.

Yeah, forgot Mauricio. Goes into the "went wrong" category. To a lesser extent maybe you could include Gilbert/Williams. I had some hope they would contribute this year.

Certainly some of these can be argued into one category or another. Starling Marte could be seen as a disappointment as he had 330 ABs and was far below career norms. But I think at his age, it's about what you could expect from him.

Anyway, what I like about this list is that if you don't perform for Stearns, you're time is limited. And he'll give a shot to someone else and hope that they can do better.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Yes. I think Stearns did a great job of managing the roster throughout the season.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Every team that performs very well is extremely lucky. Good and lucky. Every athlete that has an outstanding season is extremely lucky. And good. This is how it always is. Everything has to go your way to be the very best and finish at the very top.

[whippoorwill]

I think so. Especially in terms of health. Off the top of my head. What went right vs. what went wrong.

What Went Right
Guys Who Performed Better than Expectations
Francisco Lindor
Mark Vientos
Jose Iglesias
Luisangel Acuna
Luis Torrens

Sean Manaea
Luis Severino
David Peterson
Jose Quintana
Dedniel Nunez
Jose Butto
Reed Garrett
Phil Maton


What Went Wrong
Guys Who Performed Worse Than Expectations
Pete Alonso
Jeff McNeil
Brandon Nimmo
JD Martinez
DJ Stewart
Brett Baty
Omar Narvaez

Kodai Senga
Adrian Houser
Brooks Raley
Adam Ottovino
Jake Diekman
Drew Smith
Ryne Stanek
Sean Reid Foley
Huascar Brazoban

Neutral
Guys Who Were About What We Expected
Francisco Alvarez
Harrison Bader
Starling Marte
Tyrone Taylor
Jesse Winker

Edwin Diaz
Paul Blackburn
Tylor Megill
Christian Scott


Included in the "below expectations" category are guys who got hurt. If you look at it in terms of numbers, it doesn't seem like we got that lucky. We have just as many guys who fell short of expectations as we did guys who exceeded them.

I think where our luck came in is (a) nobody except Senga missed significant time, (b) 4/5 of our starting rotation did better than expected, and (c) a lot of the lineup regulars who underwhelmed still put up decent numbers. In other words, even though they came in below career numbers, they didn't miss by a significant amount.

Very good summation

[ashie62]

I expected Francisco Alvarez to perform much better than he did.
Definitely a What went Wrong example.

Later

Same, invisible at times

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

I think one of the differences with the new regime is that it is willing to move on from players when it stopped working. The old regime, I suspect, would have stuck with the Joey Wendells and Adrian Housers all year.

I don't think that's luck, but rather good general managing.

[Lefty Specialist]

Some guys had split seasons. McNeil was horrible at the start, was good at the end.

Lindor was awful for 6 weeks, then was all-world.

JD Martinez was great for about 6 weeks, then tanked.

The pitching in general was bad for two months, then straightened out. And that's a big reason why they went from one of the worst teams to one of the best. Pitchers going longer meant you were using less of a bad bullpen.

I don't think it was luck per se as much as it was a number of factors coming together at once in Late May/Early June.

[Centerfield]

I think one of the differences with the new regime is that it is willing to move on from players when it stopped working. The old regime, I suspect, would have stuck with the Joey Wendells and Adrian Housers all year.

I don't think that's luck, but rather good general managing.

This is exactly right. In the past, those guys who sucked would have been run out there again and again and our season would have gone right into the tank. Part of it would have been from being stubborn. From wanting to be right. "Joey Wendle is a former All-Star. We've just got to get him going". But most of it would have been the money they made. Narvaez, Houser, Diekman, Wendle, and Nido combined to make over $20M. Can you imagine the Wilpons eating that money?

[Lefty Specialist]

I think one of the differences with the new regime is that it is willing to move on from players when it stopped working. The old regime, I suspect, would have stuck with the Joey Wendells and Adrian Housers all year.

I don't think that's luck, but rather good general managing.

This is exactly right. In the past, those guys who sucked would have been run out there again and again and our season would have gone right into the tank. Part of it would have been from being stubborn. From wanting to be right. "Joey Wendle is a former All-Star. We've just got to get him going". But most of it would have been the money they made. Narvaez, Houser, Diekman, Wendle, and Nido combined to make over $20M. Can you imagine the Wilpons eating that money?

This x 1000. It's good to be rid of the Wilpons.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I think one of the differences with the new regime is that it is willing to move on from players when it stopped working. The old regime, I suspect, would have stuck with the Joey Wendells and Adrian Housers all year.

I don't think that's luck, but rather good general managing.

This is exactly right. In the past, those guys who sucked would have been run out there again and again and our season would have gone right into the tank. Part of it would have been from being stubborn. From wanting to be right. "Joey Wendle is a former All-Star. We've just got to get him going". But most of it would have been the money they made. Narvaez, Houser, Diekman, Wendle, and Nido combined to make over $20M. Can you imagine the Wilpons eating that money?

True. But that doesn't mean that no luck was involved.

[Edgy MD]

I have little doubt that money was edible for virtually any team, as pretty much all those guys were in the last years of the their contracts anyhow.

But when they moved on, it was the right time and in favor of the right players. They had the foresight to trade for Torrens when he was a neglected asset in somebody else's system, not when the need was acute.

While he initially presaged the release of Omar Narváez, he played alongside Tomás Nido side by side for a few weeks. Not only did Nido not really play himself off the team, but any difference in the output of the two of them wasn't particularly stark.

The answer wasn't really obvious in the numbers, and the Mets had to trust their evaluators and their evaluations — three times — first when they traded a hot-blooded player for him instead of just calling up the next guy from Syracuse or grabbing the next catcher off the wire, next by releasing Narváez in favor of him, and lastly when releasing Nido in favor of him.

That's good judgment.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I don't even really understand the question. There's always luck. Always. Especially so where there's much success. Life itself is pretty much all luck. Are youse suggesting that luck and talent are mutually exclusive and it's either/or?

[Centerfield]

What I was trying to quantify, to the extent possible, if at all, was how lucky we were. After breaking out these guys into these different groups, I think maybe we weren't quite as lucky as I originally thought. Healthwise, yes. But in terms of performance, we had a similar number of guys overperform, as we did underperform.

A secondary point is the one MMM made. For the players that missed the mark this season, the front office did a good job of getting those guys out and bringing in new guys, which, ended up giving us another shot to get lucky again.

[Frayed Knot]

2024 Mets and games missed:

Position players
Francisco Alvarez - 45 games (longest stretch of consecutive games missed)
McNeil - the final 20
Starling Marte - 48

Pitching:
Kodai Senga - effectively the entire season
David Peterson - the first 54 games (1/3) of the season
Christian Scott - the final 64
Sean Reid-Foley - the final 79, so half a season
Denial Nunez - 29, then one appearance, then the final 32
Drew Smith - 86, so the second half plus a few
Brooks Raley - 143, last appeared in Game #19

Tough to know where that stands on the 'luck' scale.
Probably better than most on the position player side, though >1/4 season by the starting catcher isn't nothing.
The deal deal on the pitching side obviously is Senga. When the presumptive #1 misses effectively the entire year it blows a big hole in plans.
The only other starters who lost time weren't assured of rotation spots but they were the top young guns whose job it was to help cover the Senga hole.
Instead they barely over-lapped.
Relievers, unless it's something like the stature of Diaz '23, are going to be smaller holes virtually by definition. But when it's four guys all with lengthy IL stays they if effect combine to create one large hold rather than four small ones.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Even though almost half of all of the teams now make the playoffs, the Mets squeaked into the playoffs by one game on the last day of the regular season --- after they played 162 games, as did their main competitors, the Braves and DBacks. And after all of that, youse can safely rule out that there was no luck involved?

[Centerfield]

Even though almost half of all of the teams now make the playoffs, the Mets squeaked into the playoffs by one game on the last day of the regular season --- after they played 162 games, as did their main competitors, the Braves and DBacks. And after all of that, youse can safely rule out that there was no luck involved?

Literally no one is saying there was no luck involved. Of course there's luck involved in any season. It's baseball. Random weird shit happens in baseball more than any other sport. Good luck. Bad luck.

My question was whether the good luck and bad luck evened out, or if it was one-sided in one way or another.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Even though almost half of all of the teams now make the playoffs, the Mets squeaked into the playoffs by one game on the last day of the regular season --- after they played 162 games, as did their main competitors, the Braves and DBacks. And after all of that, youse can safely rule out that there was no luck involved?

Literally no one is saying there was no luck involved. Of course there's luck involved in any season. It's baseball. Random weird shit happens in baseball more than any other sport. Good luck. Bad luck.

My question was whether the good luck and bad luck evened out, or if it was one-sided in one way or another.

How would anyone ever know? And how many grains of sand are there at Coney Island Beach?

[Centerfield]

For example, the Dodgers just won the World Series. But a case could be made that they were unlucky this year.

Ohtani came into the year unable to pitch, but they also lost Glasnow, Yamamoto, Stone, Miller and Kershaw to significant injuries. Bueller was terrible after he came back. Freeman was injured the entire playoffs, and Ohtani got hurt in Game 2 of the World Series.