Go Get Juan Soto

[Centerfield]

BTW. I'm super excited about the tabloid headlines we are about to see

JUAN-DERING EYE
Yankees slugger courting offers from Mets and Dodgers, Nats also in the Mix


THE JUAN THAT GOT AWAY
Superstar spurns Yanks, Mets, signs with Cubs


THERE CAN ONLY BE JUAN
Cashman: With Soto Back, Yanks Out on Other Top Free Agents


IT'S A JUAN-DERFUL LIFE!
Cohen Gives Mets Fans the Christmas Present They Want. Signs Soto Away From Yankees

JUAN TO GROW ON
With Soto Secured, the Mets Continue Efforts to Improve Club

[MFS62]

To be followed by:
Mets Sign Soto


Later

[metirish]

This harkens back to the wonderful

JUAN SIGNS

[batmagadanleadoff]

The Juan Soto Tiers, according to The Athletic. The Mets are in tier 1A.

Juan Soto destination tiers: MLB execs forecast market of winter’s top free agent

Excerpt:

When it comes to Juan Soto, an executive from a major-league team said, every team should at least try. He’s that good. He’s that young. Now that the World Series is done, Soto officially enters free agency squarely in his prime after hitting 41 home runs with a ludicrous .288/.419/.569 in his age-25 season. The kind of career numbers Soto has produced before turning 26 puts him on a path toward Cooperstown. Soto, a client of super agent Scott Boras, should fetch a long contract worth over $500 million; it’s probably just a matter of how close he gets to $600 million.
Of course, even if all 30 teams take a swing at signing Soto — some still won’t — a few have better odds at landing the star outfielder than others.

After speaking with several executives from various teams across the league, The Athletic weighed every club’s chances of signing Soto and grouped them.

Tier 1: Keep spreadin’ the news

New York Yankees

Soto handled being a star in New York with aplomb. Teaming up with Aaron Judge produced constant comparisons to the iconic duo of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. The Yankees hold that kind of lore. Soto seemed to dig it. Every game, fans chanted his name, waved Dominican flags and held signs telling ownership to re-sign him. Soto thrived on that stage, helping lead the Yankees to a World Series appearance. And coming up short only underscored the need to bring Soto back. What if it’s just the beginning in New York?

Tier 1A: The power of Steve Kong

New York Mets

No one has deeper pockets than Mets owner Steve Cohen, who also has a strong appetite for winning. A couple years ago, Boras called Cohen “Steve Kong” while talking about a need in MLB for “more goliaths.” Whatever that means exactly, they seem to have a great working relationship. During the National League Championship Series in Los Angeles, the two chatted for a lengthy period. After a successful first year for the club under president of baseball operations David Stearns and manager Carlos Mendoza, landing Soto would electrify the fan base in Flushing.

Tier 1B: Always lurking

Los Angeles Dodgers

This is the newly minted World Series championship super team with the money, the ambition and the cachet to be in on anyone it wants. That doesn’t mean Soto’s preference is to turn his back on New York and play on the West Coast. But one phone call or text message from Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman could change the entire tenor of these negotiations.

[***]

Tier 5: Not happening

Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates, Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics, Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays take an unconventional, open-minded approach — they pursued Freddie Freeman before he left Atlanta for Dodger Stadium — but there’s not a realistic scenario where Soto’s market craters and a low-revenue franchise swoops in.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/588565 ... ncy-tiers/

[MFS62]

I think San Francisco and Atlanta are also in 1B - always lurking.
And it will be interesting to see how deep the pockets of Phillie ownership are.
Later

[batmagadanleadoff]

I think San Francisco and Atlanta are also in 1B - always lurking.
And it will be interesting to see how deep the pockets of Phillie ownership are.
Later

The Athletic has the Braves in Tier 4:


Tier 4: Doubt it

Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles

Boras would argue that a 26-year-old player on a Hall of Fame trajectory would fit on any team’s timeline. Soto could be the finishing piece to a championship-caliber club, the magnet to attract other free agents to a rising team, or the superstar who takes pressure off young players in a rebuilding organization. The marketing potential at an iconic venue such as Wrigley Field would be enormous.

But some owners and executives will simply insist that the timing isn’t right, or maintain that an extreme length to a long-term contract almost never makes sense. It could be a risk-averse philosophy, a payroll tied up with future commitments or fears that the cable TV money is disappearing.

Despite their heavy interest in Soto at the 2022 trade deadline, the Cardinals are going through a transition period that will take them out of the running for nearly every marquee free agent this winter. It will be interesting to see if the Orioles operate differently now that private equity billionaire David Rubenstein fully controls the club, and whether a mystery team emerges.

“Just a hunch, but wouldn’t be surprised if Detroit got involved,” an NL executive said. “They should build off their 2024 and already have some very good pitching.”

[metirish]

[batmagadanleadoff]

Darling is saying that nobody should pursue Soto because the Yankees didn't win the 2024 WS? WTF?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Well, Ron, no move ensures a World Championship.

But he may be right that two $300-milion players are better than one $600-million player. Does he have any suggestions about who those two $300-million guys would be?

I'm pretty certain the Mets will be in on Soto, and least until and unless he asks for a tent in the parking lot. And I'm very much hoping they sign him.

[MFS62]

I'm pretty certain the Mets will be in on Soto, and least until and unless he asks for a tent in the parking lot.

If that is what it takes, I would remove the stake from my Mother-in-Law's heart to anchor part of that tent.

Later

[Gwreck]

I'm pretty certain the Mets will be in on Soto, and least until and unless he asks for a tent in the parking lot. And I'm very much hoping they sign him.

He can have a tent in the parking lot, or his own merchandise stand, or whatever else he wants. (Incidentally, the original 10 year/opt-out after 7 deal that Rodriguez signed with Texas in 2001 turned out to be an all-time great contact signing for the club(s) he played for).

[Centerfield]

I'm pretty certain the Mets will be in on Soto, and least until and unless he asks for a tent in the parking lot. And I'm very much hoping they sign him.

He can have a tent in the parking lot, or his own merchandise stand, or whatever else he wants. (Incidentally, the original 10 year/opt-out after 7 deal that Rodriguez signed with Texas in 2001 turned out to be an all-time great contact signing for the club(s) he played for).

Exactly. The "these deals never work out" crowd doesn't realize that this original deal was extended for more money.

[ashie62]

I saw Zack Scott predicts 701K, Price is Right style to either Mets Yankees Giants or Nationals with Soto picking the Mets by 12/25

Doesn't seem Dodgers here with their outstanding commitments being what they are

[Centerfield]

Well, Ron, no move ensures a World Championship.

But he may be right that two $300-milion players are better than one $600-million player. Does he have any suggestions about who those two $300-million guys would be?

I'm pretty certain the Mets will be in on Soto, and least until and unless he asks for a tent in the parking lot. And I'm very much hoping they sign him.

Love Ron. But this is dumb.

I mean, if we learned anything in this WS, is that one player making $600M doesn't ensure you win the World Series. What you need is one player making $700M, and another guy making $325M, and another guy making $365M, and another guy making and another guy making $160M and so on.

If history tells us anything, the big contracts means you'll win.

1. Ohtani. Won the WS.
2. Judge. Played in the WS.
3. Harper. Played in the WS.
4. Seager. Won the WS.
5. Yamamoto. Won the WS.
6. Cole. Played in the WS.
7. Machado. Perennial playoff contender.
8. Trea Turner. Perennial playoff contender
9. Bogaerts. Perennial playoff contender
10. ARod. Won the WS.

[metsmarathon]

monster contracts work, because stars win games. you just need to be sure to surround them with a solid cast of characters. because bums lose games. and its the bad contracts to bums that gets general managers fired.

[Benjamin Grimm]

And you have to be willing to accept that your guy is likely to be overpaid at the back end of that deal.

[Edgy MD]

I can list just as many top contracts that ended up being an exercise in burning money. And just as many that were neither one nor the other.

Nothing guarantees anything. Obviously, a team in a position to hand them out is often in a position to do a lot of things, and in the current environment, any team that makes the playoffs is a real contender for a championship.

That list certainly shows how few of the largest contracts are going to pitchers of late.

[Centerfield]

I can list just as many top contracts that ended up being an exercise in burning money. And just as many that were neither one nor the other.

Nothing guarantees anything. Obviously, a team in a position to hand them out is often in a position to do a lot of things, and in the current environment, any team that makes the playoffs is a real contender for a championship.

That list certainly shows how few of the largest contracts are going to pitchers of late.

You can’t. Because these are literally the top ten.

You can list the next ten, or twenty. But these are the top contracts.

[Centerfield]

And to that end. I have a theory that the second tier contracts are the ones that go south. But I haven’t checked to see if that’s actually true.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I can list just as many top contracts that ended up being an exercise in burning money. And just as many that were neither one nor the other.

Nothing guarantees anything. Obviously, a team in a position to hand them out is often in a position to do a lot of things, and in the current environment, any team that makes the playoffs is a real contender for a championship.

That list certainly shows how few of the largest contracts are going to pitchers of late.

You can’t. Because these are literally the top ten.

You can list the next ten, or twenty. But these are the top contracts.

I think its more complicated or nuanced than you present. Just off the top of my head without looking anything up, as a Met, Jacob deGrom was once the highest paid NLer and the Mets didn't win anything with him. Same with Scherzer and then Verlander. In fact, those two were the highest paid players in MLB history while with the Mets. deGrom's Rangers salary was off the charts. And while the Rangers, remarkably, then won the WS, it was no thanks to deGrom, who missed just about that entire season. Mike Trout's contract, at the time, was a record-breaker, and yet the Angels didn't even make the playoffs.

The reason those teams you listed did well is not simply because they gave out record breaking contracts, but because they were smart enough and rich enough to make other successful signings.

[Edgy MD]

I can list just as many top contracts that ended up being an exercise in burning money. And just as many that were neither one nor the other.

Nothing guarantees anything. Obviously, a team in a position to hand them out is often in a position to do a lot of things, and in the current environment, any team that makes the playoffs is a real contender for a championship.

That list certainly shows how few of the largest contracts are going to pitchers of late.

You can’t. Because these are literally the top ten.

You can list the next ten, or twenty. But these are the top contracts.

Indeed, but that just means the most recent, because "biggest ever" is a thing that ever trends upward.

[smg58]

Of course you have to be in on Soto. The Mets are freeing up more than enough money, and if you want to get to the level of consistent contention where the Yankees and the Dodgers are at, you have to be willing to pull the trigger on big deals. What makes this interesting is that at least two of the Mets, Dodgers, and Yankees will not be comfortable with the ultimate asking price. So I think the question is, what price would actually make you uncomfortable?

[smg58]

PS I'm asking rhetorically, because I haven't figured out how I'd answer that question yet.

[Gwreck]

And you have to be willing to accept that your guy is likely to be overpaid at the back end of that deal.

I would reword this as: you have to be willing to potentially make difficult decisions about benching/releasing a player and the end of the contract when he’s still owed money.

A 10 or 12 or 15 year always comes with an assumption of a production dropoff towards the end. What is being paid for, of course, is the superstar production at the beginning/middle. It’s just money spread out more.

[Centerfield]

I think its more complicated or nuanced than you present. Just off the top of my head without looking anything up, as a Met, Jacob deGrom was once the highest paid NLer and the Mets didn't win anything with him. Same with Scherzer and then Verlander. In fact, those two were the highest paid players in MLB history while with the Mets. deGrom's Rangers salary was off the charts. And while the Rangers, remarkably, then won the WS, it was no thanks to deGrom, who missed just about that entire season. Mike Trout's contract, at the time, was a record-breaker, and yet the Angels didn't even make the playoffs.

The reason those teams you listed did well is not simply because they gave out record breaking contracts, but because they were smart enough and rich enough to make other successful signings.

I don't think it's particularly complicated or nuanced. These are the top ten free agent contracts of all time in terms of total value. The type of contract that teams committed to winning give to the best players in the game who are young enough to perform over the majority of their deal. They've all been successful.

Highest AAV is a different animal altogether. Short term, high AAV deals are almost always given to older players, or players who otherwise have a question as to their durability. And as deGrom, Scherzer and Verlander demonstrated, these deals are risky.

And yes, you're absolutely correct that teams have to build around that superstar. I don't think anyone is implying we should just sign Soto then wrap up. We want Soto, then just as importantly, we want smart moves around him. And that's why we love Stearns.

In my original list, I didn't mean to list the top ten free agent signings, I meant to list the top ten overall. I didn't realize that I did that until i went back and checked. But I think this distinction is important. Clubs who sign the monster free agent contract are, at least, somewhat committed to winning. Clubs that sign their own player may be motivated to win, but might be motivated by other reasons. So let's revisit the top ten, this time including all contracts, not just free agents.

Judging these contracts on (a) whether the player performed as hoped, and (b) whether the team won.

1. Ohtani. Yes and yes. Unquestionably.
2. Trout. Kind of, and no. Trout has continued to put up very good numbers, but not what you'd hope from Trout. Injury plays a big part here. And no, the Angels haven't won. The Angels are pretty much morons.
3. Betts. Yes and yes.
4. Judge. Yes and yes.
5. Machado. Yes and yes.
6. Lindor. Yes and yes.
7. Tatis. Yes and yes.
8. Harper. Yes and yes.
9 (tie). Stanton. This is an interesting one. First three years were out of this world, including an MVP. But the Marlins didn't win. As a Yankee he's battled injury, but been productive when healthy. The Yankees of course win, and Stanton was their best hitter this post-season. Let's call this a maybe.
9 (tie). Seager. Yes and yes.
9 (tie). Yamamoto. He was injured, but pitched well when healthy, and his team won the WS. Yes, for now, but we'll see if he can stay healthy.

So of the top 11, 9 were a success, with Stanton having had some level of success, and Trout being the worst result of the bunch.

Expanding further to hit the top 20.

12. Cole. Yes and yes.
13. Devers. He's only in year 1 but put up good numbers. And the Red Sox didn't win, but again, this is an example of ownership perhaps bowing to fan pressure and re-signing a hometown hero versus actually trying to compete. Maybe this one is to early to tell, but let's call it a no for now.
14. Machado. Yes and yes.
15. Turner. Yes and yes.
16. Witt, Jr. Like Devers, he just signed. But so far, yes and yes.
17. Bogaerts. Yes and yes.
18. A-Rod (2008). Yes and yes.
19. Arenado. He's dropped off of late, but largely performed well during his contract. Colorado certainly didn't win with him, but the Cards made the playoffs 2 of his 4 years. We'll call this a no.
20. A-Rod (2000) Yes and yes.

So of the next 9, 7 successes, 2 we'd say no. Of the top 20 largest contracts at least 16 resulted in both the player performing and the team winning. 4 can be considered failures.

Of those 4 failures, all were big signings by clubs retaining home grown stars (Trout, Devers, Stanton, Arenado). Each of those four, a good case can be made that the clubs weren't committed to winning. And with Stanton, you can see how the Yankees can absorb the injuries and reap the benefits of a good Stanton all the way to a World Series.

Indeed, but that just means the most recent, because "biggest ever" is a thing that ever trends upward.

Yes. These are the most recent. But it's 16 to 4. It's not close. It's an 80% success rate over the top 20. To suggest that there are just as many flops as successes is simply wrong.

Going back and comparing contracts historically is tougher to do. I can't just go through a list and compare. For instance, Manny Ramirez $160M contract was a monster contract at the time. Brandon Nimmo's $162M is just another contract. I'd have to go back and see where it ranked at the time, and that's simply too much work. But again, I'm highly skeptical that you'd find anywhere near an 80% failure rate to offset the top 20 listed above.

And as for going forward, I think you can surmise that the success rates will be even better. At least in terms of player performance. The apprehension around an Alonso extension is evidence that no one would give Chris Davis his contract today. Especially with just 3 good seasons under his belt. An 8 year deal to a 33 year old Miguel Cabrera is laughable.

Which brings us back to Ron Darling. Yes. A 26 year old superstar like Juan Soto is absolutely who we should be targeting. It's rare that a player of his ability and his age become available in free agency. But when they do, there's no better move you can make than to lock that player down, because there's no move that provides a better chance of success.

And no, Steve Cohen doesn't have to decide between Soto and two mid-tier players, because he has the means to sign all three. But even if he did have to make that choice, you sign Soto and fill in around him. No brainer.