Go Get Juan Soto

[Edgy MD]

I certainly have no problem with targeting Soto.

The reality is that 29 teams could use him and there's only one, and there's a point at which you don't want to go higher on anybody, so I temper my desires to get Juan Soto off of somebody else's team and hope that the team is always scouting, recruiting, and developing the next Soto.

If they can sign this one, great.

[MFS62]

hope that the team is always scouting, recruiting, and developing the next Soto.

This is where I have felt that they haven't done the job in the past, especially the development end. I look forward to see how they up that part of the organization under Stearns.

Later

[Centerfield]

I certainly have no problem with targeting Soto.

The reality is that 29 teams could use him and there's only one, and there's a point at which you don't want to go higher on anybody, so I temper my desires to get Juan Soto off of somebody else's team and hope that the team is always scouting, recruiting, and developing the next Soto.

If they can sign this one, great.

So yes, of course you always want to your system to develop your own Soto. But to illustrate how hard that is, the Mets, in their 82 year history have never developed a player as good as Soto, and so the likelihood that they will in the near future is pretty low. And should we be lucky enough to do that, then we'll have two Juan Sotos and it will be the best thing in the world.

Tempering your desire to get Soto because you ultimately understand it's his decision is fine. But to color that pursuit with the idea that a Soto type deal goes bad as often as it goes good is simply incorrect. Overwhelmingly, these deals work out for the team.

And yes, there will be a point where the team isn't comfortable to go higher. But history suggests that the line isn't where we think it will be. Each of those deals had numbers that were mind-blowing at the time, and in nearly every case, you'd make that deal again if given the chance.

[Centerfield]

And it's fine to feel, as a fan, that this is not the way you want your team to be built. If you'd rather develop your talent, like Atlanta, versus compile a team of mercenaries like the Dodgers, there's no shame in saying that. I would too.

But if the idea is to win, it's important to recognize that if you don't pay Soto, your competitor will. And you'll see him and the likes of him if you're lucky enough to get to October.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Keith Law ranks this year's crop of MLB free agents. Juan Soto tops Law's list. Was anybody surprised? Here's Law's fabulous write-up of Soto:

1. Juan Soto, OF

If plate discipline was a person, it would be Juan Soto. He doesn’t chase bad pitches; bad pitches chase him. When MLB finally institutes a challenge system for balls and strikes, instead of using an automated system, the plan is to just ask Soto. So of course he’s the best free agent in this class, and a team is going to have to back up the proverbial truck for his services — especially since he’s going to start his new contract at just 26 years old.

Soto was the third-best hitter in baseball this past year by wRC+, and the only two hitters who were better are going to win their league’s respective MVP awards. He’s led the league in walks three times, finishing second this year to his teammate Aaron Judge, and has walked more than he’s struck out in every season since 2019. He has never had an OBP below .400 in seven major-league seasons.

He’s coming off a career high in homers, and while it’s easy to just ascribe that to playing half his games with the right-field fence about 20 feet from home plate (my estimate may be off, I blame the metric system), the majority of his homers were “no-doubters” by distance. For most free agents coming off a career year, it would be wise to assume some regression is coming; in Soto’s case, it could just be him entering his offensive peak.

His only flaw as a player is that he’s a below-average defender in right, and while his defensive metrics were better in 2024, playing in a smaller right field at Yankee Stadium may have had something to do with it. He’s going to put up a bunch of 8-WAR seasons in the next 10 years, and, assuming that’s the length of his contract, should still be an above-average offensive player at the end of it, even if he might move to DH by his mid-30s. I suppose it’s time to retire the Childish Bambino nickname, though

.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/587478 ... keith-law/


I find it hard to believe that the Yankees are going to let Soto walk on over to the Mets, of all teams, to put up Mickey Mantle-like numbers for the next seven or eight years.

[Edgy MD]

If plate discipline were a person, it would be Bonds, but in the Hasn't-Been-Popped-for-Steroids Category, Soto beats most other comers, including Henderson, or Trout, or Votto, or Frank Thomas. And that's a skill that trends suggest improve with maturity.

One point Law is inadvertantly making is that, with the advent of automated ball-strike calling, he's probably only going to get better, at least in that department.

[Centerfield]

If plate discipline were a person, it would be Bonds, but in the Hasn't-Been-Popped-for-Steroids Category, Soto beats most other comers, including Henderson, or Trout, or Votto, or Frank Thomas. And that's a skill that trends suggest improve with maturity.

One point Law is inadvertantly making is that, with the advent of automated ball-strike calling, he's probably only going to get better, at least in that department.

Agree with this. Which made Nimmo’s lack of discipline this year all the more surprising. I wonder if the foot injury hampered him more than we knew.

[Bob Alpacadaca]

What was expected is nonetheless eye-opening: Gerrit Cole has opted out of his contract and placed the ball in the Yankees’ court.

Cole made the decision Saturday, The Post’s Jon Heyman confirmed, to pull out of a deal that had four years and $144 million remaining.

The Yankees can prevent their ace from hitting the open market by attaching a fifth year, worth $36 million, to the existing deal that would keep Cole in The Bronx through the 2029 season.

If this somehow doesn't work out and Cole walks, that gives the Yankees more money to throw at Soto.

[batmagadanleadoff]

I find it hard to believe that the Yankees are going to let Soto walk on over to the Mets, of all teams, to put up Mickey Mantle-like numbers for the next seven or eight years.

Steve Cohen could offer Soto more money than the Yankees. But in every other imaginable category, the Yankees prevail. Winning team? Yankees. Winning tradition? Yankees. Soto embraces his Dominican heritage? NYC's largest Dominican population is in Northern Manhattan and the Bronx. Bigger brand? The Yankees. Bigger fan base? The Yankees. Home-buying options? Soto already has a home here and the teams play in the same city. Cozier stadium dimensions for a left-handed power hitter? Please.

[Frayed Knot]

There must be some kind of announcer disease because, as a backup for Ron Darling's comments, comes the following from Suzyn Waldman:

During a Friday appearance on “Maggie and Perloff,” Waldman posited that Hal Steinbrenner, Brian Cashman and Co. may be better off spreading the wealth this offseason rather than putting all their eggs in the Soto basket. “[Juan Soto] is really something,” Waldman said. “What he is not, is a right fielder … Are you really going to break the bank for Juan Soto and still have to put Aaron Judge in center field? … Everyone is so focused on Juan Soto. There are eight other positions on the field that you can’t fill right now … If you don’t fill those positions correctly you’re gonna replay this year.”

Coupla things:

- "If you don’t fill those positions correctly you’re gonna replay this year.”
You mean suffer through a season with 94 wins and a World Series appearance?

- I was VERY surprised to see Soto get a Gold Glove nomination [does playing in the smallest RF in MLB skew the defensive metrics enough to balance out the eye test? ... I have no idea] but he's not a bad RF as Georgie Girl seems to think. He sometimes takes some funky routes to balls but he's got a legit RF arm and, at worst, I'd rate him average at his position. And while I realize that she sees a lot more MFY games than I do, I've been watching Soto since he came up and he was a division opponent for us for half his career so I'm not just basing this on a misplayed ball or two during the recent playoffs.

- Suzyn tends to get very protective of home town players and the longer you're with the pinstripes the more attached. So this sounds like she's more interested in 'protecting' Judge by getting him back to RF with less room for his large self to navigate as he ages and she sees Soto standing in the way of that plan. Will having both as OFs in 2032 present a defensive problem? Yeah, maybe. But, shyeeeet, if I'm the Yanx I'll deal with that when I get there.

- I think media types love getting behind what they consider a bunch of scrappy underdogs so the idea of buying the top talent available tends to rain on that parade.
An example: Buster Olney, who covered the Yanx in the '90s, wrote a book about the 2001. And it was fine book IMO except that his closing thesis was that that WS loss was a turning point moment that changed the MFY/George philosophy away from home grown talent plus under-the-radar trades and more towards open market buying of players developed elsewhere: Giambi, David Wells II, Matsui, ARod, Sheffield, Kevin Brown, Javier Vazquez, Randy Johnson, Johnny Damon (among others) all were brought on board just in the next five seasons and those seasons weren't nearly as successful (or as popular) as the previous era so it must be cause-and-effect, right? But of course it wasn't a case of shifting to a path of choosing FAs over development it's just that when Jeter, Bernie, Pettitte, Mariano, and Posada all come up within a very small window and all quickly rise to at or near the best at their positions it means your SS, CF, LHP, Closer, and C slots are ones you don't have to fill with expensive FAs because you already had those spots covered with guys making at or near the minimum wage.
One thing Yanqui fans like to point out is that the 90's payrolls were less above the norm than were the early 21st century year so that made the first way better in their minds which in turn helped them think of the dynasty teams as scrappy underdogs, once again missing and mixing up the whole cause-and-effect thing.


Anyway, both Ronnie and Susie are announcers and not GMs so I'm not going to spend any time worrying about what think on the subject.

[Frayed Knot]

What was expected is nonetheless eye-opening: Gerrit Cole has opted out of his contract and placed the ball in the Yankees’ court.

Cole made the decision Saturday, The Post’s Jon Heyman confirmed, to pull out of a deal that had four years and $144 million remaining.

The Yankees can prevent their ace from hitting the open market by attaching a fifth year, worth $36 million, to the existing deal that would keep Cole in The Bronx through the 2029 season.

If this somehow doesn't work out and Cole walks, that gives the Yankees more money to throw at Soto.

Except that if you're using the 'fixed payroll' kind of argument and assign Cole's contract towards Soto then there's less to throw towards the #1 starter they're going to need.

Also, I guess that whole 'YANKEE FAN NOW, TOMORROW, FOREVER' that Cole espouses has its limits. Not that I expect it not to.

[Bob Alpacadaca]

What was expected is nonetheless eye-opening: Gerrit Cole has opted out of his contract and placed the ball in the Yankees’ court.

Cole made the decision Saturday, The Post’s Jon Heyman confirmed, to pull out of a deal that had four years and $144 million remaining.

The Yankees can prevent their ace from hitting the open market by attaching a fifth year, worth $36 million, to the existing deal that would keep Cole in The Bronx through the 2029 season.

If this somehow doesn't work out and Cole walks, that gives the Yankees more money to throw at Soto.

Except that if you're using the 'fixed payroll' kind of argument and assign Cole's contract towards Soto then there's less to throw towards the #1 starter they're going to need.

Also, I guess that whole 'YANKEE FAN NOW, TOMORROW, FOREVER' that Cole espouses has its limits. Not that I expect it not to.

Good call. I don't know if he gets a chance to test the market or whether the Yanks will give him that year quickly.

[Frayed Knot]

"Wide-ranging belief within the industry" believes that the Soto signing will come down to the Mets and the Yanx ... for whatever that's worth.

No word on how or if the vote count from some county in Michigan will play into all of this.

[Marshmallowmilkshake]

"Wide-ranging belief within the industry" believes that the Soto signing will come down to the Mets and the Yanx ... for whatever that's worth.

No word on how or if the vote count from some county in Michigan will play into all of this.

Kent County is reporting solidly in favor of the Mets getting Soto.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Reports say Steve Cohen is going to California next week to meet with Boras and Soto.

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

Just throwing this put there. Soto isn't a great fielder or baserunner today, difficult to imagine he will be any better over an 8 or 10 year contract he's about to sign.

[Edgy MD]

No, he won't.

On the other hand, there's a good chance he and Boras build in an opt-out for the back-half of that contract.

And load a disproportionate bunch of the salary into the front half.

[Centerfield]

Signing him to a long term deal and having him opt out of the second half would be ideal.

[smg58]

Signing him to a long term deal and having him opt out of the second half would be ideal.

This. A front-loaded contract with player options only backfires if he starts out bad and stays bad. And I'm willing to play the odds on this one.

[Centerfield]

Meetings with Soto this week. In order:

1. Blue Jays
2. Red Sox
3. Mets
4. Yankees

Per Jeff Passan.

Do we read anything into the order of meetings?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Probably not. It's probably just about availability and logistics.

At least no Phillies or Braves. Yet.

[Frayed Knot]

Do we read anything into the order of meetings?

Sure, that he has an obvious preference for two named teams.

[Edgy MD]

It would be a heckuva first shot fired ending a long detente between the Yankees and the Mets with regard to going after each other's marquee free agents.

When the Mets and the Yankees have signed players directly off the other's roster, it's usually somebody — Severino, Bader, Granderson — that the other has implicitly moved on from. The Mets grabbing the top free agent off the Yankee squad while they are still pursuing him could be the start of a vicious market war.

The Yankees could turn around and sign Alonso and Manaea the next day and the back pages would catch 🔥🔥!

[Frayed Knot]

Just throwing this put there. Soto isn't a great fielder or baserunner today ...

Bu ... but, he was a Gold Glove Finalist!

[Benjamin Grimm]

NJ.com reports that Carlos Beltran said the following to a Puerto Rican newspaper:

“The Mets want to improve the team and there is no doubt that they will go after free agents, especially Juan Soto, who everybody wants,” he said. “The Mets will go full blast for him.”