The Pete Alonso Conundrum

[Benjamin Grimm]

I still think there's a chance that the market will come back to the Mets, if that $68 million offer becomes his best option.

That is, unless the Mets have committed elsewhere by then. Which I think is the most likely outcome.

[Benjamin Grimm]

This is what I said in October. It looks like it may play out that way.

I think he'll be one of those players, like Snell and Montgomery and Martinez this year, who remain unsigned until March. And by then the Mets will have moved on.

[Centerfield]

I think it's helpful to consider why we are getting these leaks. First, Pete's market. There are no other offers that are close. If there were, they would have been leveraged against the Mets offer. There's been nothing. We can reasonably conclude there is nothing currently.

So in the absence of actual competitors, Boras is reverting to the only option he has next. Public pressure. He leaked to Duquette last week that Pete was willing to come back on a three year deal, but intentionally did not mention the AAV demand. This riled up the Mets fanbase that a deal was close. The overwhelming sentiment was that for a short term deal, the Mets should "just get it done". Then came the news that they were still far apart in AAV. Duquette, in exchange for the news he was given, was asked to implore Cohen to get involved. Boras knows that Stearns won't budge unless he's made to budge.

Since then, Boras has leaked additional info to try to create more public pressure. The Mets have given Alonso a deadline. The Mets made a low-ball offer. And now, he's leaking that the Mets have moved on. Boras is trying to demonstrate to the Mets that losing Alonso will create outrage, panic, and will be terrible for the Mets. I don't think it will work.

I picture Stearns just sitting there. Unphased, just sitting on his offer. I think Stearns believes that even if another team comes into the picture and offers more, that the Mets will get the right to match before Pete leaves. And so he sits and waits, knowing he's the highest bidder.

And for that reason, I still remain optimistic that the two sides will reach a deal. I don't really think anything has changed simply because Boras decided to make the discussions public. If anything, I think it suggests he's running out of options.

I will say this though. Stearns had better be right. Because if Pete gets a higher offer, and out of spite, doesn't come back and ask the Mets to match. Or, if Pete does, and Stearns declines to match, I don't see how Stearns can realistically make up for the loss of Pete with the options that remain. I've said before that I would have blinked long before this. Let's see if he's right.

[smg58]

It's very fair to wonder what the Plan B is for both sides at this point. Given what other first baseman (most of whom are coming off better seasons than Alonso) have gotten, I can't see the market for Alonso being better than what the Mets appear to have offered. But how would the Mets pivot? I'm not for overpaying Alonso, but you can't replace him with nothing. One of the MLBTR articles suggested they'd move Vientos to first and try a combination of Baty, Acuna, and Mauricio at third. That's two guys who I'm not sure have ever played the position, and a third who made his biggest contribution to last year's team by taking a one-way trip to Syracuse. Do they think the Wilpons still run the team? I'm working under the assumption that Stearns has a contingency.

[metsmarathon]

The contingency is Bregman, who’s caught in the same morass.

[MFS62]

Reports (metsonline.com? amazinavenue.com?) say Mauricio may not be ready for spring training. He's still rehabbing from two surgeries.
Will that mean they'll make a Bregman deal?
Stay tuned for the next exciting chapter.

Later

[Edgy MD]

Mauricio has some experience at third. Acuña hasn't yet played there.

Of course, neither of them have to play there. They can help at third by playing second and bouncing McNeil over there.

There's a lot to be said for replacing somebody with nobody. There are hundreds of guys in your system angling for opportunities. Sometimes, you have to juggle or cycle through multiple options, but if everybody's been doing their job, quality can emerge.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Maybe they'll put McNeil at third, Acuna at second, and Vientos at first for a year and then go big for Vlad next year. I'd be reluctant, though, to put too many eggs in Vlad's basket, especially since we don't even know for sure that he'll be a free agent.

[MFS62]

McNeil has been overlooked in many of the articles I've seen about off season moves.
With the emphasis on power over average we've seen from him in the past few years, you could say he's starting to "hit like a third baseman". But I don't think he can come close to the power/speed combo that a healthy Mauricio delivers when he returns.
But until he does return? Why not McSquirrel?
Sometimes, some of the best moves are the ones you don't make.
Later

[Centerfield]

Boras is starting to lose his cool. Yesterday at the Corbin Burnes conference, he complained openly that MLB teams are making money but not spending.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/scot ... -spending/

He's clearly frustrated at the Bregman and Alonso situations and the inability to create a market.

Meanwhile, his mouthpiece Jon Heyman has an article that the slow moving free agency market is frustrating players:

https://nypost.com/2025/01/16/sports/sl ... rs-insane/

This peak into Boras' mindset starts to give you the context for the leaks they've issued this past week.

[ashie62]

Martino went on that the Mets are done on Alonso

They've signed Winker and now maybe a reliever, a top one

Who knows but Pete's price seems to be going down?

I guess Minter fits here

[batmagadanleadoff]

This peak into Boras' mindset starts to give you the context for the leaks they've issued this past week.

What leaks?

[Centerfield]

This peak into Boras' mindset starts to give you the context for the leaks they've issued this past week.

What leaks?

"Pete Alonso is willing to compromise with a three year deal! And despite lots of interest, it's only open to the Mets! What a guy!"

"Can you believe it? Even after Pete came to the Mets with a three year deal structure, they still refuse to compromise on money. Steve Cohen is gonna have to get involved."

"Did you guys hear that the Mets are forcing a deadline on Pete's negotiations?"

"WTF. Check out this low-ball offer the Mets made. After everything Pete has done."

"The Mets have moved on from Alonso. Their plan B is Brett Baty. Get ready for life without Pete Mets fans."

[batmagadanleadoff]

Oh. I don't get why all of that is considered a "leak". The negotiations aren't top secret talks held in a SCIF. The parties can say what they wanna say.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Oh. I don't get why all of that is considered a "leak". The negotiations aren't top secret talks held in a SCIF. The parties can say what they wanna say.

And the Mets might, just the same, be playing their own bluff with this supposed deadline for Pete to come to terms.

[Edgy MD]

The best part of it all is how we try to and fold the "he said he wants to be here!" factor into the equation. How often has a guy said, "As I enter free agency, I'd like to pre-emptively exclude my current employer from consideration; yeah, I know they said they intend to make an offer but fuck 'em — they may have the richest owner, but how many chances does a guy get to move to Cincinnati?"?

[Benjamin Grimm]

Darryl Strawberry essentially did that but yeah, it's not something you ever really see.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Me personally, I tend to believe what's being reported. I don't have all of the details, the granular stuff, the minutiae. But I believe the big, broad picture that other teams are showing interest in Alonso, and that the Mets, truly and sincerely need for Alonso to decide sooner rather than later.

[Channel9]

You know, I would LOVE to have a power bat like Pete’s stay with the Mets for a 10-15 year career and set all kinds of Mets records, but I do like the Winker and Minter signings which I guess is part of ‘Plan B.’ I’m also tickled (not in a sexual way) about the Vlad Guerrero, Jr. rumors (entire minor league system for Vladdy), so if Pete goes elsewhere and the Mets somehow get Vlad, then I’m completely coolio with that. And I gotta think you guys are as well.

[ashie62]

Secaucus agrees and adds Vladimir Jr's brother Vladi is already a Met

[Frayed Knot]

Keep in mind, Vladdy Jr fans, that he's an FA one year from now so temper your desires, as well as the price you'd agree to pay for him, accordingly.

[Gwreck]

the Winker and Minter signings which I guess is part of ‘Plan B.’

I am very surprised to read about the Winker or Minter signings as a Plan B. The Mets needed a lefty reliever and a lefty bench/platoon bat even if Alonso re-signs.

The Plan B is Bregman. Or, maybe, Santander and his 15 career games at first base. It would be stupid to sign Juan Soto but then go the cheap route on the additional power bat the lineup needs around Soto. Stearns is not stupid.

[Edgy MD]

The less expensive route isn't necessarily the wrong route to my thinking.

And the more expensive route isn't necessarily the right one.

[Gwreck]

I suppose “the cheap route” is perhaps better stated as “the unproven route.”

The Mets need one more power hitter to provide sufficient lineup protection for Soto, and more broadly, to make the team good enough to win the NL East. That additional player — which they need to perform starting on opening day 2025 — not currently in the Mets’ system.

[batmagadanleadoff]

This peak into Boras' mindset starts to give you the context for the leaks they've issued this past week.

What leaks?

"Pete Alonso is willing to compromise with a three year deal! And despite lots of interest, it's only open to the Mets! What a guy!"

"Can you believe it? Even after Pete came to the Mets with a three year deal structure, they still refuse to compromise on money. Steve Cohen is gonna have to get involved."

"Did you guys hear that the Mets are forcing a deadline on Pete's negotiations?"

"WTF. Check out this low-ball offer the Mets made. After everything Pete has done."

"The Mets have moved on from Alonso. Their plan B is Brett Baty. Get ready for life without Pete Mets fans."

I just don't get what all the fuss is about these supposed "leaks" or whatever they are. The parties can divulge to the press whatever they wanna divulge about the negotiations. Also, I don't see what kind of an edge Boras gets from this info or leaks or whatever it is. If the info is true, then it's info that the Mets already know. I don't think that Boras is that dumb that he thinks the Mets are gonna go against their plan and crumble just because the dumb and uninformed portion of the Mets fanbase reacts to this info the way that dumb and uninformed people tend to react to things. Is that what Boras thinks is gonna happen? That the Mets are gonna be goaded into paying Alonso way more than they were willing to pay because some idiot calls up Mike Francesca and blows a gasket on live radio over Alonso's unsigned status? Maybe that's how things worked under the Wilpons. Not that they'd have the money to even be in the Alonso talks.

The Mets are offering Alonso in the 23M-24M AAV range. Freddie Freeman, a better first baseman, got a $27M AAV contract. Miguel Cabrera got the highest AAV ($31M) in baseball history for a first baseman. But Cabrera was a triple threat -- not only capable of leading the league in HR's and RBI's like Alonso, but in batting average as well, unlike Alonso. If the Mets offer is so bad, some team would have topped it by now. ST is one month away and the big ticket FA purchases are always the first dominoes to fall during the off-season. The Mets offer sounds very fair. Maybe the Mets left a little wiggle room to raise their offer. But they're definitely in the ballpark of what seems fair and reasonable.

I also think that some other team would need to blow the Mets offer out of the water. Because if they just top it by a little bit, why would Alonso take the little bit of extra money to walk away from his cherished team and the great city that he came to love? And he'd be in line to shatter most of the Mets franchise major batting records. That surely means a lot to Alonso. What's an extra two or three million dollars to a guy that will make between $150M and $200M by the time he's 40 between baseball salaries and endorsements? How much money does a person need? Why would he walk away from all of that for an extra million dollars a year?