Catch-22: Starling Marte

[Edgy MD]

NAME: Starling Marte
AGE: 33
POSITION: Right Field (and cf and lf)
NUMBER: 6
NICKNAME: "Tato"
fWAR IN 2021: 5.5
ZIPS PROJECTION FOR 2022: 2.8

I was the big offensive get this offseason, and here I am, unceremoniously awarded the eighth spot in this future-predicting exercise.

I'm Sterling Marte and I'm coming off with what is almost unquestioningly my best year at 32, so at least some fallback is to be expected. When I look in the mirror, though, I sill see a terrific athletic physique, and when I open up The Baseball Encyclopedia, I still count 296 steals, including nearly 100 the last three seasons.

I rock. I don't know where I'll be hitting in the lineup, or necessarily where I'll be deployed on defense. I don't know if the Mets will want me running, or red light me like a sucka. I just know I rock. And that's why I've assembled you all here. I need you to look into your ... future-seeing devices ... and tell me how much rocking I'll do in 2022.

I bet it's a lot. At least, I would if betting on the game among players wasn't sort of frowned upon. I'VE ALREADY BEEN SUSPENDED ONCE YO!!

[Johnny Lunchbucket]

I think my having met his Toyota dealer last year was a sign. 110 RBIs, 17 home runs, 8 triples.. 275/335/435

[smg58]

.300/.360/.440, with 35 steals. Not spectacular, but solid.

[Edgy MD]

I’d take either of those.

Gilkeyesque!

[roger_that]

Scares me and puzzles me. Every chance that the Mets paid big for a player just beginning his slide downhill in their proud tradition of Foster, Bey, Baerga, and Alomar. He could hit anywhere in the lineup, though the first few slots are filled with better OPB guys than he is--he's mainly batted 1, 2, or 3 in the order, I think, but I don't see it here. Has never played an inning in RF, either, but should be able to.

Where have they been batting him in Spring Training games? Any consistent slot, or all over the map?

[Lefty Specialist]

Won't be worth it for 4 years, but he'll be worth it this year. .280, 15/65, 40 steals, 90 runs.

[roger_that]

Isn't that the psychology of trading nowdays? Get someone for what he can do for you RIGHT NOW, and if he declines, as he probably will, then accept overpaying for a bench player, pinch hitter deluxe, fifth outfielder type, or just swap him out for parts and take a beating on the back end?

[A Boy Named Seo]

Marte was a free agent signing, but just the same, I think the A's, Rays and a bunch of other teams might disagree with that assessment on modern trades.

I'm with most everyone here. I expect Marte to decline this year, but more towards his career norms, which should still be great for him and the team. I have no idea if/how a position change affects a guy coming to a new team, but I'll say .285/.370/.450, 15 homers, 25 steals, and MLB top-10 in advanced metrics in RF.

[kcmets]

4th best offensive Met, team leader in steals, well above average in right.

[roger_that]

Marte was a free agent signing,

Yes, of course. I mis-typed.

But I think my point holds. I used to think that acquiring a player on a long-term contract meant something like "We expect to get an average of X value for Y years" from him, and I think that's how clubs saw it, but now I realize that's a naive way of looking it and I think clubs realized that long ago. It might be true with young players, that if you sign a 25-year-old to an eight year $160M contract, you might expect an average $20M player for that length, but with a 33-year old player like Marte, there's no way to reasonably expect a star performance by the end of his contract in 2025, when he'll be 37. The Mets can only expect a season or two of star performance, and anything beyond that is gravy. So they're really paying top dollar for 2022 and maybe 2023, and if they're smart, they're shopping around for upgrades in RF very soon. They're willing to overpay grossly for value received on the back end of his deal, paying him star wages to play part-time as the cost of acquiring him for this year and (maybe) next.

[A Boy Named Seo]

I think your original point (getting guys RIGHT NOW!!!! and living with the decline) has been happening forever. Shit, George Foster? If anything, teams are more leery nowadays of paying for past production, which drives the union to try and push for earlier free agency and less service time manipulation. But teams who think they have a shot will always buy backend decline years if it means getting those prime years.

[whippoorwill]

Beloved by Pirate fans

[roger_that]

Shit, George Foster?

No shit. I personally wanted to make "Shit" his official first name. I think Mets fans everywhere (or at least those living in my pants) were furious they didn't get value received in 1985 and 1986-- "we" were paying out the wazoo for this dude in sharp decline and we were PISSED! I certainly wasn't complacent about the fact that he was aging, and ya gotta expect a decline at some point. Of course it didn't help that he was awful from the start, either, but either way I expected him to put up something close to his peak (Reds) numbers for the length of his horsechoking contract.

[kcmets]

Foster's middle name was Arthur. His nickname according to bbrdotcom is
Yahtzee! Never knew that.

Marte has some interesting Sim Score guys on his lists over there.

[Edgy MD]

So, what is Marte bringing to the table here?

Is he a terrific athlete whose offense comes in spurts, like a more genial Carl Everett?

Is he a prolific base stealer who is losing his basestealing mojo, like Rober Cedeño II?

Is he defense-and-baserunning specialist, who is mostly only going to hit once a week, and you will just have to forget that more was hoped for at contract time, like Jason Hayward?

Is he an MVP talent, whose productivity relied too much on his athletic skills, and not enough on his baseball skills, and thus hits a rapid decline once his prime passes and his athleticism recedes even a little bit, like Andrew McCutcheon?

Or is he still a solid get, and we just have to be patient until he finds his groove?

Because all of the above are still useful contributors for a good team, if you're realistic about it, but I'm not sure what I'm seeing is going to get him into an All-Star Game or anything.

[roger_that]

Foster's middle name was Arthur.

Kingman, too, I think. I remember Murph saying his full name for some forgettable reason. A warning sign about acquiring sluggers?