You can't just assume a sweep. A mediocre AAA team has experienced players capable of punching back, guessing right, and playing big league ball twice a week. You can't assume a sweep, but having seen the Mets play good, very good, and excellent teams for what feels like a month, I understand if you want a sweep.
One thing on the Mets side is perhaps injuries. Second-year catcher Tyler Stephenson was looking like the squad's lone All-Star, but in the midst of a red-hot streak a little over a month ago, he broke a thumb on a foul tip. He appears to be a fast healer, because he just got sent to AAA on a rehab assignment, but I'd be surprised if he returns at all for this series.
More likely to come back is the Reds other injured Tyler, rightfielder Tyler Naquin, who's played three or so AAA games on his rehab assignment.
Catching: Soft hitting backups Aramis Garcia (R) and Mike Papierski (S) staff the catcher's box until Stephenson returns, and they're pretty analogous to Tomás Nido and Patrick Mazeika — the former a defense first guy, whose defense isn't quite so hot that you want to keep running out there until he gets his batting figured out, and the latter a consistently decent-hitting minor league catcher who hasn't translated that to the bigs yet.
First Base: Through the Reds' wretched start, future Hall-of-Famer Joey Votto was probably the worst player in baseball, and there were only two or three other candidates. He was go-see-your-doctor bad — hitting .129 / .291 / .143 // .434 through April. So, of course he found himself in May, going .278 / .395 / .639 // 1.034 in 11 games, and followed that up with a pretty strong June. (.274 / .361 / .495 // .856). He's no All-Star anymore, maybe, but he was 16th in MVP voting as recently as last season, he still plays in a bandbox, and he's still a future Hall-of-Famer, so when he comes to the plate, don't let that .214 batting average fool you. April is long-gone.
Second Base: Jonathan India, your 2021 Rookie of the Year, missed six weeks in April and May with a pulled hammy. You know how hammies work, and you know how young players play, so you'll be not shocked at all to know he came back too early and reinjured it. What may shock you is knowing just how ghastly his performance has been since returning in mid-June. But again, he's still a defending RoY with beautiful hair, and he loves to get hit by pitches, so be glad that he's playing poorly, but don't take that .217 average lightly.
Third Base: Brandon Drury who was the best hitter on the 2021 Mets for maybe 10 days, has been the best hitter on the 2022 Reds for most of the season. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the team's lone All-Star nod with a .270 / .329 / .523 // .852. While it doesn't speak well of a team when your best hitter is a 29-year-old who spent most of the previous season in the minors, 16 homers is 16 homers. He likes to swing, and probably smells that All-Star spot, so make him chase.
Shortstop: Kyle Farmer can hit OK for a shortstop, but on most teams, he'd be a Wigginton — a second-/third-base guy who you'd only use at short in a pinch.
Left Field: Thirty-four-year-old Tommy Pham has had a really interesting career. His bat might have played higher if he played in the middle of the diamond, but he's been solid, has plenty of post-season experience. He has no shortage of really compelling copy:
- He's from a mixed African-American and Vietnamese-American background.
- He's a twin.
- His dad was incarcerated when he was born, and has a long rap sheet.
- He wore leg braces as a kid.
- He's been reportedly stabbed at least twice — once (by his account) by his stepfather, and once (by police account) by a combatant outside a strip club, because baseball.
- He's pretty open about being a frequent gambler.
Center Field: Since his rookie year in 2019, Nick Senzel has been a human power outage, and doesn't exactly make up for that with on-basing or base-stealing. He probably should be losing more time to Albert Almora, Jr., than he has, but I guess they still hope for a future from him. Plus, Almora has been forced into service in ...
Right Field: A 2021-Mets-like vaccum has hit at this position, and with injuries to Naquin, Jake Fraley, and Aristedes Aquino, they've been running Almora J. and Max Schrock out there. You mostly know Almora. Schrock hasn't hit for squat. Recent Met and backup infielder Matt Reynolds has even seen time out there. You can see why I think Naquin is coming back for this series, ready or not.
DH: Possible future salary dump Mike Moustakas is a good argument against the DH.
Starting Pitchers:
GAME ONE: Taijuan Walker goes against righty Hunter Greene. Greeen sports a 5.72 ERA and is one of two Hunters on this staff. That's about the most mid-American thing ever. If I had to guess which team had multiple Hunters, I'd guess Cincinnati or Arizona. Greene's a talented 22-year-old rookie, throws the ball a MILLION miles an hour, and broke Jacob deGrom's record for most 100-mph-+ pitches in a game like his first time out. He's given up 13 runs in 14 innings over his last three, but his control is mostly pretty good for a flamethrower, hi aquilles heel being his league-leading homers-allowed figure. He threw a one-hit shutout against the Diamondbacks back on June 6, though, and this guy is really expected to turn a corner, so best to chase him off the mound early before he remembers what a blue-chip prospect he is and finds a groove.
GAME TWO: Max Scherzer is expected to return against lefty Nick Lidolo. Lidolo is a rookie first-rounder, recently out of college, who is also coming off the 60-day injured list for this start, so both starters could exit early, possibly creating some fifth-of-July fireworks late.
GAME Three: TBD vs. Graham Ashcraft. The Mets haven't announced a starter yet, but Chris Bassitt is in the mix if he's sufficiently recovered from Covid, and David Peterson is a possibility if he's sufficiently recovered from fatherhood. Ashcroft will be the third rookie the Reds throw at the Mets, but he's stocky pitch-to-contact guy. Less young Nolan Ryan (like Hunter Greene) and more young Joe Blanton. Or shorter Ed Lynch.
Bullpen: Hunter Strickland, 2020 Met, is the default closer, but the Reds haven't really settled on one all year. And with good reason. This is really where other big league teams can outclass the Reds. It's like the Phils the last few years, into their bullpen and go to town. Let them walk a guy, hit a guy and then give up a three-run-homer or a two-run double, and then do it again. Just put on your wellies and open the spigot. Anybody having a decent year has hit the injured list, and anybody having a lousy year gets mercilessly trotted out again and again. Expect to see Jeff Hoffman (the only solid option) a few times, and Art Warren (not solid at all) once or twice as well. They fucking have this guy named Riever Sanmartin who has somehow thrown 24 1/3 innings despite compiling a just-barely-legal 9.99 ERA. Tall lefty Ross Detweiler is their other lefty and you've seen plenty of him as a Nat.
If we do not score liberally against this crew, it's on us.
One-Time Friends: Luis Cessa was a Mets minor leaguer who once upon a time helped bring Yoenis Céspedes from Detroit. He's now a seven-year vet, who has had some success, but is now generously contributing to the leakiest bullpen in baseball.
Ineffective closer Hunter Strickland was briefly a highly ineffective 2020 Met.
Top hitter Brandon Drury closed a gap for the 2022 Mets and third or forth outfielder Albert Almora, Jr. opened a gap for that very same squadron.
Reds utility man (if he isn't DFA'd sometime before the start of the series) Matt Reynolds was drafted in 2012 by the Mets and started out for them in 2016 and 2017 before returning for a single plate appearance earlier this season.
Hitting coach Alan Zinter was the Mets first-round selection of 1989, spending like 13 years in the minors before finally debuting in 2002 for Houston. Not the shiniest moment for then-Mets scouting director Roland Johnson, but it's good to see a gray-bearded Zinter still in the game.
