Go Get Juan Soto

[Edgy MD]

So yes, of course you always want to your system to develop your own Soto. But to illustrate how hard that is, the Mets, in their 82 year history have never developed a player as good as Soto, and so the likelihood that they will in the near future is pretty low.

Well, I'd say they've developed at least two.

It's probably at least as open a question as to whether they've ever successfully signed one.

[Benjamin Grimm]

Strawberry and Wright, I assume?

Their best free agent signing has got to be Beltran.

[Edgy MD]

Strawberry and Wright, I assume?

Their best free agent signing has got to be Beltran.

I was thinking Seaver and Gooden.

Agreed on Beltran as their most successful free agent signing, though that may or may not depend on whether you count Mike Piazza.

With apologies to Don Aase, of course.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I guess I thought we were talking about offensive players.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, poor Don Aase. His next hit will be his first.

[Centerfield]

I don’t know how you can realistically compare pitchers to Juan Soto. But sure. Count them if you want. The point remains that the Mets, in their 62 year history, have developed at worst, zero, at best two players, if you include pitchers, that could reasonably be compared to Juan Soto.

So sure. Go ahead and wait for Juan Soto to show up in your farm system. But understand how unlikely that is and how long you might be waiting.

Understand further that other teams don’t wait for the megastar to show up in their system. They sign them. And win championships.

Understand further still that you can improve scouting and player development in hopes of developing the next Soto AND sign the actual Soto.

And the fact that the Mets have never signed a player as good as Soto illustrates how unique this opportunity is and is an excellent argument for why they should pull out the stops and do everything in their power to sign him.

[Edgy MD]

You wrote about players "as good as," so no, there's nothing unrealistic at all.

They certainly were as good, and the data supports that. Of course they were.

[Centerfield]

I mean, not really.

Juan Soto is averaging 5.2 in WAR over his first 7 seasons. If you remove the sixty game 2020 season, his average yearly WAR is 5.66. His last four seasons are 7.9, 5.5, 5.5 and 7.1.

Gooden started out strong, with WAR of 5.5, 12.2 and 4.5 over his first three seasons. Then he never hit 4.0 ever again in his career. In his four seasons leading up to his age 26 season he went 2.5, 1.5, 3.4, 3.7. He's really not close to Juan Soto.

But let's say for argument that Gooden is as good as Soto. That's 2 players in 62 years. So you can hope that your team will scout and recruit and do whatever they can, but it's inescapable that the likelihood of developing your own Juan Soto is extremely unlikely. And the likelihood that they'll develop one in time to help this core win is basically negligible. There isn't a single prospect on the farm who's realistic upside is anywhere near Juan Soto.

So again, you can temper your desire to get Juan Soto off anyone else's team for whatever reason you want. But it's absolutely wrong to suggest that it makes sense to do so because:

(a) these deals tend to do south (they don't)
(b) You can develop your own Juan Soto (sure, I guess, but highly, highly unlikely)
(c) We've never signed one as good? (I think that's your argument? There's only been a few as good as him. And it worked out great for the teams that did. And the big free agents we signed worked out terrific as well. Beltran and Piazza. Two of the best Mets ever. And they remained productive right up until the end of their deals)

[batmagadanleadoff]

Jim Bowden, writing for The Athletic, believes that the Mets are the favorites to land Soto. (long read)

Excerpt:

I predicted a 15-year, $622 million contract when I finalized my top free agent ranking in late October. I believed Soto would get $622 million because he is only 26, has one of the best hit tools the game has ever seen, and should age well. Fifteen years makes sense when you consider many superstar players have signed deals that run until they’re at least 40, even though the backends of those contracts rarely work out well for the teams.

Those are eye-popping numbers, but they’re really not surprising given the player.

[***]

1. New York Mets

The Mets are my favorites to sign Soto because I believe if their owner, Steve Cohen, wants him, he will make the highest bid — offering the most dollars and years — and if he does that and no other team matches it, I think he’s getting his man. Cohen was the highest bidder last offseason for Yoshinobu Yamamoto before the Dodgers matched the Mets’ bid, and his offer two years ago to Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162 million) far exceeded any other the outfielder had received.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/593585 ... s-suitors/

[metirish]

has one of the best hit tools the game has ever seen


Just say he's a great hitter and stop with the nonsense

[Edgy MD]

I'm rooting for the deal to happen, but plenty such deals go south.

Fifteen years is wowsers. Look at Jim Bowden go.

The notion that the Mets have signed long-term deals for high-end free agents have all worked out is fine, as long as we ignore the times it didn't work out, but it frequently hasn't.

I agree that he's certainly special even in the company of such guys, but still, clearly several superstar contracts have failed for the Mets.

[Benjamin Grimm]

I can think of two occasions when the Mets have signed the most coveted free agent. One worked out a lot better than the other: Bobby Bonilla and Carlos Beltran.

[metsmarathon]

I mean, not really.

Juan Soto is averaging 5.2 in WAR over his first 7 seasons. If you remove the sixty game 2020 season, his average yearly WAR is 5.66. His last four seasons are 7.9, 5.5, 5.5 and 7.1.

Gooden started out strong, with WAR of 5.5, 12.2 and 4.5 over his first three seasons. Then he never hit 4.0 ever again in his career. In his four seasons leading up to his age 26 season he went 2.5, 1.5, 3.4, 3.7. He's really not close to Juan Soto.

But let's say for argument that Gooden is as good as Soto. That's 2 players in 62 years. So you can hope that your team will scout and recruit and do whatever they can, but it's inescapable that the likelihood of developing your own Juan Soto is extremely unlikely. And the likelihood that they'll develop one in time to help this core win is basically negligible. There isn't a single prospect on the farm who's realistic upside is anywhere near Juan Soto.

So again, you can temper your desire to get Juan Soto off anyone else's team for whatever reason you want. But it's absolutely wrong to suggest that it makes sense to do so because:

(a) these deals tend to do south (they don't)
(b) You can develop your own Juan Soto (sure, I guess, but highly, highly unlikely)
(c) We've never signed one as good? (I think that's your argument? There's only been a few as good as him. And it worked out great for the teams that did. And the big free agents we signed worked out terrific as well. Beltran and Piazza. Two of the best Mets ever. And they remained productive right up until the end of their deals)

after 7 season, juan soto has 36.3 fWAR.

david wright, after 7 seasons... 34.8 fWAR. close. he was also two years older.
darryl strawberry is next closest position player, probably. after 7 seasons, he had 29 fWAR at the same age as david.

as for pitchers...
doc gooden after 7 seasons had 41.1 fWAR. edge gooden.
tom seaver after 7 seasons had 43.9 fWAR. big edge seaver, though he was three years older than soto.
and, lest we forget, jacob degrom after 7 years has 34.1 fWAR. of course, that's with a damned sight fewer innings! he was notably older than soto, too.

so, yeah, soto is a better player than anyone we've ever developed, position-player-wise. especially at that age.

he would also become the best position player we'd ever signed, at least considering age.
after 7 seasons...
francisco lindor had 34.6 fWAR, and was 2 years older
mike piazza? well, he had 39.4 fWAR after his 7th season (the first was a 0-fWAR 20 game affair) and 44 fWAR after his 7th full season. he started his career 4 years older than soto.
carlos beltran... he had 29.0 fWAR after 7 seasons, at the same age as wright and lindor. his first season was a really short one, 14 games, but even after 7 full seasons, was at 31.3.

and then there's bobby bonilla. he had 22.6 fWAR after 7 seasons, at the same age as piazza. hardly a comp, really.

[Edgy MD]

I can think of two occasions when the Mets have signed the most coveted free agent. One worked out a lot better than the other: Bobby Bonilla and Carlos Beltran.

And Mike Piazza if you count him. And Yoenis Céspedes if you count him.

I can't particularly quantify covetedness, of course, but they got the most primo packages in their offseasons of free agency.

But yeah, age-wise, Gooden is easily the best comp, and though I disagree that he didn't have an equal or (to my thinking) better career through those first seven seasons, he went into his eighth year with the trend lines working against him more pointedly than can be claimed about Juan Soto.

And certainly through history, pitchers are more likely to have their career production skew to the front half of their tenures.

No doubt that Soto has a package like none other. I also think everybody knows that, and so whoever lands him assumes tons of risk.

I hope it's the Mets, but I'll sleep easy if it doesn't go down that way. I'm also kind of happy to see the Mets push another team's offers up.

[Centerfield]

I'm rooting for the deal to happen, but plenty such deals go south.

Fifteen years is wowsers. Look at Jim Bowden go.

The notion that the Mets have signed long-term deals for high-end free agents have all worked out is fine, as long as we ignore the times it didn't work out, but it frequently hasn't.

I agree that he's certainly special even in the company of such guys, but still, clearly several superstar contracts have failed for the Mets.

Your argument evolves every post you make.

Your first argument as to the monster free agent contracts was:

I can list just as many top contracts that ended up being an exercise in burning money.

But you didn't. We're several posts into this discussion and you still haven't. And I posted a list of the top twenty mega free agent contracts in MLB history and showed that they have an 80% success rate. So until and unless you come up with another 16 of 20 that ended up being an exercise in burning money, that statement is just patently false.

And then you shifted.

It's probably at least as open a question as to whether they've ever successfully signed one.

Which, honestly. I don't know why anyone we may or may not have signed in the past would affect our current ability to sign Juan Soto. But sure. My counter was that yes, we've successfully signed megastars to free agent deals. Beltran and Piazza. And it worked out great.

The notion that the Mets have signed long-term deals for high-end free agents have all worked out is fine, as long as we ignore the times it didn't work out, but it frequently hasn't.

I agree that he's certainly special even in the company of such guys, but still, clearly several superstar contracts have failed for the Mets.

And now, you've shifted yet again. Saying that these long term deals for mega stars for the Mets don't work out. Or more accurately, they "frequently" don't work out. Again, if you're going to make blanket statements, it's helpful to come back with actual data.

By my count, the Mets have signed the Mega Star to a long term deal three times.

1. Bobby Bonilla (1992). At the time, the richest deal in MLB history. I'll count this one despite the fact that Bonilla was less a mega star, versus the best star available (this type of deal is often a trap). But let's include him. He was 13th in OPS (.883) going into his age 29 season. His first year was a disappointment for sure. His OPS dropped to .779. But then over the next three years, his OPS was .874, .878, and .984. He was traded in 1995 for top prospect Alex Ochoa. Overall, a success.

2. Mike Piazza (1998). Yes, this technically a trade and signing. Piazza is the first true Mega Star we got. He was #2 in OPS in 1997. Piazza had a career .915 OPS for the Mets, was a 6 time All-Star, and is possibly the greatest offensive Met.

3. Carlos Beltran (2005). The other mega start signed to a long term deal is Carlos Beltran. Career .869 OPS with the Mets. In his last season, he had a .904 OPS and was traded for Zach Wheeler. He'll make the Hall of Fame, and his plaque may have a Mets logo.

Who are the others?

Jason Bay was not a star, and wasn't even the biggest star available that year. Bay is a great example a Wilpon-Second-Tier special. Appier was another. Glavine was over the hill. Cespedes was a short term deal. I can't think of the Mets acquiring any other mega star to a long term deal.

[Centerfield]

Thought of one more.

4. Johan Santana. Perhaps the best example of a Long-Term Mega Star not working out is Johan Santana. Again, this was a trade and extension, but in 2008 he agreed to a 6 year, $137.5MM extension. Santana was great in 2008, very good in both 2009 and 2010, but battled injury the last three years of the deal, where the Mets got very little return on the back end other than the 2012 no hitter.

So if you're looking for deals that went south, this is the best example. And not surprisingly, it's a pitcher.

[Centerfield]

I mean, not really.

Juan Soto is averaging 5.2 in WAR over his first 7 seasons. If you remove the sixty game 2020 season, his average yearly WAR is 5.66. His last four seasons are 7.9, 5.5, 5.5 and 7.1.

Gooden started out strong, with WAR of 5.5, 12.2 and 4.5 over his first three seasons. Then he never hit 4.0 ever again in his career. In his four seasons leading up to his age 26 season he went 2.5, 1.5, 3.4, 3.7. He's really not close to Juan Soto.

But let's say for argument that Gooden is as good as Soto. That's 2 players in 62 years. So you can hope that your team will scout and recruit and do whatever they can, but it's inescapable that the likelihood of developing your own Juan Soto is extremely unlikely. And the likelihood that they'll develop one in time to help this core win is basically negligible. There isn't a single prospect on the farm who's realistic upside is anywhere near Juan Soto.

So again, you can temper your desire to get Juan Soto off anyone else's team for whatever reason you want. But it's absolutely wrong to suggest that it makes sense to do so because:

(a) these deals tend to do south (they don't)
(b) You can develop your own Juan Soto (sure, I guess, but highly, highly unlikely)
(c) We've never signed one as good? (I think that's your argument? There's only been a few as good as him. And it worked out great for the teams that did. And the big free agents we signed worked out terrific as well. Beltran and Piazza. Two of the best Mets ever. And they remained productive right up until the end of their deals)

after 7 season, juan soto has 36.3 fWAR.

david wright, after 7 seasons... 34.8 fWAR. close. he was also two years older.
darryl strawberry is next closest position player, probably. after 7 seasons, he had 29 fWAR at the same age as david.

as for pitchers...
doc gooden after 7 seasons had 41.1 fWAR. edge gooden.
tom seaver after 7 seasons had 43.9 fWAR. big edge seaver, though he was three years older than soto.
and, lest we forget, jacob degrom after 7 years has 34.1 fWAR. of course, that's with a damned sight fewer innings! he was notably older than soto, too.

so, yeah, soto is a better player than anyone we've ever developed, position-player-wise. especially at that age.

he would also become the best position player we'd ever signed, at least considering age.
after 7 seasons...
francisco lindor had 34.6 fWAR, and was 2 years older
mike piazza? well, he had 39.4 fWAR after his 7th season (the first was a 0-fWAR 20 game affair) and 44 fWAR after his 7th full season. he started his career 4 years older than soto.
carlos beltran... he had 29.0 fWAR after 7 seasons, at the same age as wright and lindor. his first season was a really short one, 14 games, but even after 7 full seasons, was at 31.3.

and then there's bobby bonilla. he had 22.6 fWAR after 7 seasons, at the same age as piazza. hardly a comp, really.

Great analysis. Where can I find fWAR? I use Baseball Reference WAR (which I guess is bWAR?) because it's easily accessible on their player page.

[Edgy MD]

I'm rooting for the deal to happen, but plenty such deals go south.

Fifteen years is wowsers. Look at Jim Bowden go.

The notion that the Mets have signed long-term deals for high-end free agents have all worked out is fine, as long as we ignore the times it didn't work out, but it frequently hasn't.

I agree that he's certainly special even in the company of such guys, but still, clearly several superstar contracts have failed for the Mets.

Your argument evolves every post you make.

Good.

Your first argument as to the monster free agent contracts was:

I can list just as many top contracts that ended up being an exercise in burning money.

But you didn't.

So what? I wrote that I could. If you'd like more information, please ask. That would be more evolution, of course.

But actually I have listed several. I'm happy to list many more.

We're several posts into this discussion and you still haven't.

I certainly have. OF MY OWN VOLITION!

[Edgy MD]

The notion that the Mets have signed long-term deals for high-end free agents have all worked out is fine, as long as we ignore the times it didn't work out, but it frequently hasn't.

I agree that he's certainly special even in the company of such guys, but still, clearly several superstar contracts have failed for the Mets.

And now, you've shifted yet again.

No, I havent.

Saying that these long term deals for mega stars for the Mets don't work out. Or more accurately, they "frequently" don't work out. Again, if you're going to make blanket statements, ...

I didn't make any blanket statements. I wouldn't make any blanket statements. You specifically quoted where my statement was qualified. Please give me some credit.

... it's helpful to come back with actual data.

Of course it is. If you'd like some, please ask.

I tend not to go overboard supporting a point unless it's challenged.

[Edgy MD]

Great analysis. Where can I find fWAR? I use Baseball Reference WAR (which I guess is bWAR?) because it's easily accessible on their player page.

He came to the same conclusion I did, to which you characterized me as somehow not realistic, condescendingly told me to "count them if you want," then when I did count them you responded "not really."

With him, it's "great analysis."

I'm really happy to support anything I write. Charts and tables and shit. 2-D and 3-D. All you need to do is ask.

Line graphs. Pie graphs. Ven diagrams. I can display it all. But the stakes grow so fucking high when you start talking down to me, I certainly am not motivated to post that on my own. So I just keep things short. "I disagree." "I can cite alternatives."

It's too damn personal all the time, but I can build an argument the size of a building if you'd like. I can cite logic and data and religion and biophysics and drama and poetry and philosophy. Regression analyses, cost-of-living adjustments. Standard deviations and ANOVA models.

But I tend to bore people, so I state my position, and if I think it's self-evident, and I don't want to be all tiresome, I leave all that out unless somebody writes something asking me to clarify or back up my position.

OE: The claim about ANOVA models is mostly a bluff, but I sure am keen to try.

[Centerfield]

Great analysis. Where can I find fWAR? I use Baseball Reference WAR (which I guess is bWAR?) because it's easily accessible on their player page.

He came to the same conclusion I did, to which you characterized me as somehow not realistic, condescendingly told me to "count them if you want, then concluded that wrote "not really."

With him, it's great analysis.

I'm really happy to support anything I write. Charts and tables and shit. 2-D and 3-D. All you need to do is ask.

Line graphs. Pie graphs. Ven diagrams. I can display it all. But the stakes grow so fucking high when you start talking down to me, I certainly am not motivated to post that on my own. So I just keep things short. "I disagree." "I can cite alternatives."

It's too damn personal all the time, but I can build an argument the size of a fucking building if you'd like. I can cite logic and data and religion and biophysics and drama and poetry and philosophy.

It's great analysis because he provided data. I asked him where he gets his fWAR because I don't know where to find it. I'd like to see it. And I'm surprised that Fangraphs and BBREF are so far apart in WAR calculations.
I used bWAR for my analysis. And looking at the bWAR numbers, it's not close. If fWAR tells a different story, I'm happy to concede you are right, or at the least, there is an argument to be made.

I don't have a different response because of who said it. I had a different response because he had a relevant, and on point response to data I provided.

That is the difference between my conversations with him, and my conversations with you. You don't address points that are raised with you. You deflect and shift the conversation AND IT DRIVES ME FUCKING CRAZY. EDGY YOU'RE DRIVING ME FUCKING CRAZY.

This entire discussion arose from me refuting Ron Darling's point. Of course when the opportunity arises, you go and sign the Mega Star to the Long Term contract. And in support of that, I listed the top 10 contracts and explained why it makes sense to make that gamble.

You refuted that.

I can list just as many top contracts that ended up being an exercise in burning money

So I expanded my list to the top 20 contracts ever. And demonstrated that this is not true. Not even close. An honorable response to this is "yes, you are correct" or "no, you are dumb, and here is my proof why". Either is fine.

You didn't do that. You wrote:

there's a point at which you don't want to go higher on anybody, so I temper my desires to get Juan Soto off of somebody else's team and hope that the team is always scouting, recruiting, and developing the next Soto.

If you're wondering why I find it so difficult to discuss anything with you, it's this. Instead of refuting, or acknowledging my point, you shift. And although my better judgment tells me I should just stop, I shifted with you. And tell you sure, you can hope for that, but it's incredibly fucking unlikely that you'll be successful developing your own Soto seeing as how we've never developed a player as good as Soto in our history.

And again, a respectful response here would be (a) "you're right, it's really unlikely. I get your point" or (b) "no, you're wrong. It's actually really likely, here's why". Either response is respectful.

But nope. This is you.

Well, I'd say they've developed at least two.

To which I should have said, "sure, two, four, whatever. It's still highly fucking unlikely". But no. Dumbass me took the bait and debated your two. When all along, I should have said, what I'm saying now. Whether it's zero or two or four players, it's highly fucking unlikely the Mets will develop a player as good as Soto. Can we agree on that?

I mean why can't you just say that's highly unlikely? And that signing Soto has no bearing on whether or not we develop our own Soto?

Don't you see that when you're faced with a counter argument, you don't address it. You don't acknowledge what's been said. You just shift to something else because you don't want to admit being wrong or you don't want to address the argument head on. Which is why I shouldn't have been surprised when you said:

It's probably at least as open a question as to whether they've ever successfully signed one.

I mean what? At this point I'm wondering if you're just toying with me. What does this have to do with anything? Why are you talking about this, other than, again, to shift the conversation away from the original point again. And again, I should have just let it go. But I continue to be a dumbass and answer you that yes. The Mets successfully signed Beltran and Piazza.

Agreed right? These two signings are unquestionably successful right? RIGHT?

The notion that the Mets have signed long-term deals for high-end free agents have all worked out is fine, as long as we ignore the times it didn't work out, but it frequently hasn't.

Seriously? I didn't say all of them worked out. You asked me if we had ever successfully signed one. I gave you two. IS IT THAT HARD FOR YOU TO SAY "YES, THAT SOUNDS RIGHT".

Or....come back and say I'm wrong. The Piazza and Beltran signings were NOT successful. Here's why... Literally anything but shifting the conversation again.

It's too damn personal all the time

OMG EDGY. Listen. I love you. I really do. Like family. It is JUST SO HARD TO DISCUSS THINGS WITH YOU. You like to shift arguments and I can't let anything go. We are the worst.

[Centerfield]

At the risk of shifting myself. At the end of the day. I wonder if a healthy way of looking at this is is just that you don't like big free agent signings the same way I don't like trades.

I hate nearly every trade proposal I come across. Even if everyone else agrees it's fair. When trades are made I feel like we overpaid. Even when trades work out, I go out of my way to find context at the time to show that it was a bad trade.

I think maybe you are this way about free agent signings. Looking for reasons to oppose a free agent signing because you are against the idea of free agent signings.

[Bob Alpacadaca]

It’s gonna be a long winter.

[Edgy MD]

At the risk of shifting myself. At the end of the day. I wonder if a healthy way of looking at this is is just that you don't like big free agent signings the same way I don't like trades.

I hate nearly every trade proposal I come across. Even if everyone else agrees it's fair. When trades are made I feel like we overpaid. Even when trades work out, I go out of my way to find context at the time to show that it was a bad trade.

I think maybe you are this way about free agent signings. Looking for reasons to oppose a free agent signing because you are against the idea of free agent signings.

I dislike trades far more.

Free agent signings are fine once they've happened. If a player hasn't got the good sense to have already signed with the Mets in the first place, I have to view that player with at least some suspicion. Once he has cleared his mind enough to come play for the right team, I can begin to forgive. Well, I can begin to begin.

Trades, though, are an affront to human dignity. They make me all sorts of complicit in something tawdry and duplicitous.

I'm sorry to drive you crazy. It's very easy to provide data to back up anything I assert.

Nothing I've written is bait.

You know, you made an assertion that the Mets produced zero players as good as Juan Soto. You didn't provide any data up front. You just wrote it. I don't know why it's so infuriating that I wrote otherwise and didn't slam down the data along with it. I would have actually felt obnoxious doing that. I even checked the data beforehand to confirm my suspicion that it was an uncontroversial stance. I actually had the data, right there in my back pocket, if anyone simply asked.

But it seems I'm taken as obnoxious for not presenting it.

Clearly, I miss all sorts social cues, as I do not know how how to disagree unprovocatively. Again, I am sorry. I seek to learn this trick.

[Edgy MD]

Here's some data suggesting that the Mets have indeed produced a few players as good as (or, indeed, better than) Juan Soto.


HIGH-PROFILE PRODUCTS OF METS' SYSTEM THROUGH THEIR FIRST SEVEN SEASONS AS COMPARED TO JUAN SOTO

Player	bWAR	fWAR	Average	Notes
Tom Seaver	54.8	49.6	52.20
Dwight Gooden	36.1	43.1	39.60	Came up around the same age as Soto. Missed around 60 games in 1987 due to cocaine suspension.
Jacob deGrom	37.4	36.3	36.85	Missed around 100 games in 2020 due to COVID. Also missed all batting opportunities that season.
Juan Soto	36.4	36.3	36.35	Missed around 100 games in 2020 due to COVID.
David Wright	32.3	34.9	33.60
Darryl Strawberry	30.2	29.2	29.70
Amos Otis	24.1	25.5	24.80	Included for fun. Did not include negative value from first two partial seasons as a Met.
Jerry Koosman	25.8	23.1	24.45	Included through eighth season as first "season" was only 22 innings (also included) of negative value.
José Reyes	21.1	22.3	21.70	Came up around the same age as Soto. Some weird injuries to start his career.
Pete Alonso	20.0	17.2	18.60	Has yet to have a seventh season. Missed around 100 games in 2020 due to COVID.

Data for pitchers includes their batting WAR also. This generally augments the players on the table, but drastically detracts from Jerry Koosman's record.

The notes listed are not necessarily to be taken as caveats, only to give a more clear picture of the data and its context.

I'd be happy, if asked, to list some top free agent contracts that have turned out markedly badly for the team making the deals. I could also include extension contracts, like David Wright's, or not. I could also provide abstract clarifying how these contracts have turned out badly.