Ten Mets on the Ballot (Hall of Fame 2024)

[Bob Alpacadaca]

It's interesting to compare Wright to Scott Rolen, elected last year, and with Chase Utley, who some people are touting as being worthy -- though not in this forum. Pretty similar.

[batmagadanleadoff]

Sandy Koufax got in based on ten years.

If Koufax had followed 1966 with three or four mediocre years, would that have damaged his chances?

Or (and this is what I'm thinking) is it that Koufax's ten years were a lot better than Wright's ten years?

Good one! But Koufax had that four year peak ('63-'66) which was kinda like Gooden in '84 and '85 only for twice as long. What was it that Koufax famously said about Gooden after the '85 season: "I'd rather have his future instead of my past."

[metirish]

Thought he was a basketball guy?

[G-Fafif]

Thought he was a basketball guy?

That’s his son Stefan. Filip used to write those risible Bleacher Creature columns in the Snooze.

[metirish]

[Benjamin Grimm]

Not looking so good for Beltran, huh?

[metirish]

Nope, or Wagner , looking stark for Wright too

[metirish]

Interesting ballot

[A Boy Named Seo]

I cannot understand that ballot. If you've got ARod (and Bartolo!?) why not Manny?

[metirish]

Early but anyway here's the latest count

[Bob Alpacadaca]

I think this weekend is when one of the veterans committees votes, with Davey Johnson on the ballot.

[Edgy MD]

I cannot understand that ballot. If you've got ARod (and Bartolo!?) why not Manny?

It does make the Jones-but-not-Beltran position seem tenable by comparison, doesn't it?

I guess Bartolo is the friendly face of PEDs, and A-Rod is the ... neutral face? Even with clean blood, Manny was still Manny. I guess he not only failed the voter's PED test, but his good teammate test as well.

[metirish]

Ballot 9, 10 and 11

[metsmarathon]

torii hunter, eh? that's an interesting stance on a non-beltran ballot.

i was hoping for a more steady drumbeat in carlos' favor than what i'm hearing.

[Edgy MD]

Yeah, I'm guessing that a steady drumbeat is exactly Carlos' problem.

[metirish]

Nice to see three Wagner votes in a row

[Edgy MD]

It's curious to see if and how much a softening of anti-steroid sentiment favors Sheffield and A-Rod and others who had the good sense to come a few years later and/or stick around longer than Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, Sosa, etc.

[metsmarathon]

sheffield has a bit of a different steroid story than the rest, though. at least, so he claims.

OE: i suppose it might undercut his strong anti-steroid stance if he were to suddenly start hawking nugenics testosterone boosting shit. ahem frank thomas.

[Bob Alpacadaca]

Yeah, I'm guessing that a steady drumbeat is exactly Carlos' problem.

Boom. Good call.

[metirish]

Wright on

[metirish]

[metirish]

[Edgy MD]

Carl Steward is a Bay Area guy. Got to see Carlos utterly tear it up in a pennant run for the otherwise sinking 2011 Giants.

[Cowtipper]

I did a little analysis on the Hall of Fame chances for Sheffield and Wagner on another website:

"As it pertains to Sheffield, he is going to get pretty close. Since 2010, there have been a handful of guys to reach their final year and not be elected. The number is even smaller among those who had 20% support or more in their penultimate year. Including the special cases of Clemens and Bonds, and excluding Schilling because he intentionally tanked his election chances by telling folks not to vote for him, the average final year bump among those who had 20%+ support in their penultimate try is 10.11%, which would put Sheffield at ~65% this time.

Excluding Bonds and Clemens makes that number 11.7%, which would put Sheffield at ~67% this go-around.

If you go back even further to 2000, the numbers become 7.6% with Bonds and Clemens and 8.2% without, however I'd argue those numbers are inaccurate by modern standards as there has been a notable shift in voting patterns since the 10-year rule was enacted and voters are much more willing to give players that final-year bump since its enactment. Including only those affected by the 10-year rule, the average final year bump is 13% and excluding Bonds and Clemens it is 16.7%, and among those with 50% support in their penultimate year while also excluding Bonds and Clemens, it is 17.7% (including Bonds and Clemens it is 12.2%).

Therefore, I deduce Sheffield will see a boost of somewhere between 12.2% and 17.7%, which would give him somewhere between ~67% and ~73% this year. The mean and median among those who fit the 10-year qualification are both 14.9%, so I will say Sheffield is going to finish with 70% in his final year, which will look really bad if the VC doesn't elect him eventually, which will likely and finally open the floodgates for the steroid guys.

...

Using the same metrics I used above for Sheffield, but as it pertains to the players' penultimate and antepenultimate years on the ballots (as Wagner is currently in his penultimate year), I find that Wagner will likely see a gain of 7.3 to 15.7 percent this go-around. As he doesn't have the stain of steroids to tarnish him, and as he is following a pattern similar to other men who eventually made the Hall in the 10-year era (Walker, Martinez, Raines), I surmise that he will likely be closer to the 15.7 mark. Therefore, conjecturally speaking, one can postulate that it is safe to hypothesize that Wagner will earn somewhere between 75.4% and 83.8% of the vote for the Hall of Fame this year, thereby putting him in the Hall."

[metirish]

Wagner looking good