Lefty Specialist wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 7:55 pm
Final Des Moines Register poll shows Harris leading Trump 47-44 in Iowa. Let's just say if she wins Iowa it'll be an early night......
If that's even close to accurate it would be big.
Iowa went with
Dukakis, Clinton, Clinton, Gore,
GWB (by 7/10th of 1%), then
Obama, Obama before turning to Trump by 9+ points over Hillary and 7+ over Biden
I wish I had an answer for why but none I can come up with reflects well on Democrats. It's not like Iowa has some sort of rapidly changing demographic mix or high
levels of influx from other parts of the country. There are towns there that will tell you that theirs is predominantly Swedish while the Norwegian one is the one ten
miles down the road ... and the bulk of that immigration was 100 to 140 years ago. iow it's a fairly static place.
My main thought is that while the Democratic message gets stronger and stronger it does so in smaller and smaller pockets. So they're now getting
(made up numbers)
90+% of voters in SF and Marin County instead of merely 70+, but in doing so they've been losing ground in places like Iowa and others in the midwest -- y'know,
the ones Hillary took for granted -- that were blue, or at minimum, blue/purple for decades.